Brussels negotiators hope that offering to accept U.S. tariffs of 10% across all of the European Union’s exports into the United States will avert any higher duties on cars, drugs and electronics, newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Monday.
Citing high-ranking EU negotiators, the paper said the offer to U.S. counterparts would come only under certain conditions and would not be billed as permanent.
Handelsblatt also said the EU was, in return, ready to cut its tariffs on U.S.-made vehicles, and to possibly change technical or legal hurdles to make it easier for U.S. manufacturers to sell their cars in Europe.
The EU has also offered to completely ban purchases of Russian natural gas, potentially creating more demand for U.S. producers.
The EU commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The EU’s position comes partly from the realization that U.S. President Donald Trump will rely on some tariff revenues to fund planned tax cuts.
U.S. negotiators, however, have so far not agreed to limit their import duties on EU cars to 10%, the paper added.
Ludwig Burger, Reuters
Millions of Americans are seeing their credit scores suffer now that the U.S. government has resumed referring missed student loan payments for debt collection.After 90 days of non-payment, student loan servicers report delinquent, or past-due, accounts to major credit bureaus, which use the information to recalculate the borrower’s score. Falling behind on loan payments therefore can affect an individual’s credit rating as severely as filing for personal bankruptcy.A lower credit score makes it harder or more expensive to obtain car loans, mortgages, credit cards, auto insurance and other financial services at a time when inflation, high interest rates, and layoffs have strained the resources of some consumers.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that in the first three months of 2025, 2.2 million student loan recipients saw their scores drop by 100 points, and an additional 1 million had drops of 150 points or more.Declines that steep may mean the difference between a manageable credit card interest rate and an unmanageable one, or approval or rejection of an application to rent an apartment.The U.S. Department of Education paused federal student loan payments in March 2020, offering borrowers relief during the economic chaos of the coronavirus pandemic.Though payments technically resumed in 2023, the Biden administration provided a one-year grace period that ended in October 2024. Last month, the Trump administration restarted the collection process for outstanding student loans, with plans to seize wages and tax refunds if the loans continue to go unpaid.According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, about 1 in 4 people with student loan accounts were more than 90 days behind on payments at the end of March.Kat Hanchon, 33, who works in marketing and higher education in Detroit, was one of them. Hanchon said her score dropped by 57 points as a result of her loans falling delinquent this year. That put her score below 600, or subprime.When Hanchon received her statement from her loan servicer, her expected monthly payments were higher than before the pandemic-era pause, even though she had enrolled in a repayment plan that takes a borrower’s full financial situation into account.“They said I now have to pay $358 per month,” she said. “I’m not going to be able to pay that. But I’m not unusual in the world we’re living in right now.”Hanchon said she’s had to prioritize paying medical expenses for a dental crown, a root canal, and an endoscopy before she’ll be able to consider putting money toward the loans. While her housing situation is secure for the moment, she worries about the annual percentage rate for her credit cards fluctuating.Lenders, landlords, credit card companies, employers and utility companies all look to consumers’ credit scores to gauge the likelihood of borrowers being able to make regular payments. A higher score typically results in lower interest rates and more favorable loan terms, while a lower score makes it harder to access credit.The Education Department has said borrowers should receive bills from lenders three weeks before any payments are due, but some people have reported that they have not been notified.Wait times for calls with loan servicers have been high, and layoffs at the Department of Education have also likely contributed to delayed service, consumer advocates say.Dom Holmes, 28, who works for a nonprofit in Manheim, Pennsylvania, said he woke up in early May to find his credit score had dropped 60 or 70 points overnight.“All of a sudden I was delinquent, even though I’d never received notice,” he said.Holmes has begun the process of appealing the reduction of his credit score, he said. He’s been considering a move for professional reasons, and added that he’s concerned it could be tough to rent a place to live with his score as it stands.“I’m at the ideal age where I should be starting a family and buying a home,” he said. “When you destroy me financially, what are the chances I’m able to do that and that’s viable for me?”Holmes, who was the first person in his family to graduate from college, said he still has some outstanding Parent Plus loans, which he intends to keep paying down so that his parents’ credit scores aren’t affected.He graduated in 2019, shortly before the pandemic, and said he can see how his generation might have difficulty paying off the debt.“Right as I was entering the workforce, the world really stopped,” Holmes said. “Things were really bad for a lot of people for a long time. We’re still coming out of that. And all of a sudden, the switches got turned back on overnight.”Kevin King, vice president of credit risk at data and analytics company LexisNexis, said he expects the effects of the resumed student loan collections to begin rippling through the U.S. economy in the coming months.“There were a number of years where it was probably a bad financial strategy to be making student loan payments,” he said. “A lot of consumers were confused as various government (policies of forgiveness) were passed and overruled.”King predicts that student loan payments will move higher in the so-called “payment hierarchy,” or the order in which consumers make payments, since the government plans to use “levers to compel” such as wage garnishment and the seizing of tax refunds.“Which bill do you pay first, second, and not at all?” King said. “Historically, student loans are really far down the list. But the government’s being pretty aggressive here in pursuing payment activity in a way that may shift the hierarchy. Consumers might be more willing to go delinquent or default on something like a credit card or installment loan.”The Federal Reserve of New York study also found that borrowers ages 40 and older were most likely to be delinquent on their loans.Andrew McCall, 58, of Boise, Idaho, said he has about $30,000 remaining in outstanding loans from earning his computer science degrees. He said he can’t afford his monthly payments, which are in the $250-300 range, and worries what a hit to his credit score might mean for all areas of his life.“The fact that this economy is driven by debt to begin with causes my score to be paramount no matter what financial decisions I’m making, outside of going to the grocery store,” he said. “My car, my house Your credit rating becomes a social stratifier.”
The Associated Press receives support from Charles Schwab Foundation for educational and explanatory reporting to improve financial literacy. The independent foundation is separate from Charles Schwab and Co. Inc. The AP is solely responsible for its journalism.
Cora Lewis, Associated Press
A decade ago, China had just a few hundred pharmaceutical drugs actively in development. Today, China has thousands of drugs in active development and is continually increasing investment to make even more.
This transformation was not, however, a foregone conclusion: China faced incredibly high barriers to growing its pharmaceutical industry including weak research investment and a highly fragmented market of small drug development firms. However, through engineering an environment conducive to pharma innovation, China went from developing 2% of all drugs globally to 25%. Over the same period, the U.S. decreased its share from 45% to 36%, according to Evaluates internal data.
A boost in funding and regulatory changes opened the door, but access to the right talent has taken China across the threshold into a pharmaceutical golden age. Scientists from China and other parts of Asia used to come to the U.S. to work for the biggest drug companies and with the brightest minds. Now, many experts are heading East to fill Chinas labs, and this return began well before the current administration took office. The result? A huge increase in the quality and quantity of novel Chinese medicines in development.
Licensing deals
To understand the threat China poses, look to major drug companies product portfolios. Increasingly, instead of acquiring homegrown innovations, pharma giants including Novo Nordisk, Merck & Co., AstraZeneca, and most recently Pfizer are entering into high-profile licensing deals with Chinese firms. In 2024, 31% of big pharma licensing deals involved a Chinese biotech and that number is projected to grow this year.
China now offers a dizzyingly abundant source of innovative, high-quality therapies atby pharma standardsreasonable prices. Could the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, long a shining example of innovation on the world stage, soon be eclipsed?
While Chinas pharma industry is close to becoming the world leader, the U.S. still holds key advantages to maintain dominance.
Where China Has The U.S. Beat
There are three hot spots of innovation in next-generation therapies where Chinas lead is becoming pronounced:
Bispecific Antibodies (Bispecifics): Engineered antibodies that bind to two different targets simultaneously, offering a novel way to fight cancers. They garnered billions of dollars in sales last year and 56% of those currently in development originated in China, according to Evaluates internal data.
Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs): These antibodies deliver a highly potent chemotherapy drug directly to cancer cells. The ADC market is projected to reach $50B by 2030 and 55% of those currently in development originated in China.
Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cells (CAR-Ts): T-cells modified to recognize and kill cancer cells. The CAR-T market is expected to reach over $21B by 2030 and 51% of therapies currently in development originated in China.
GLP-1s
Notably, despite the increasingly crowded nature of the obesity and diabetes space, Evaluates internal data shows 46% of GLP-1 therapies in development are from Chinese sponsors. Merck, for example, made its first move into the obesity space not by developing its own drug but by licensing a Chinese GLP-1 pill late last year. Questions remain, though, about whether Chinese players can catch Western pharma leaders which have a huge head start in the obesity space.
Realistically, its unlikely that the U.S.or any other countrywill beat China in these top three areas, though many of these Chinese drugs will be acquired by U.S. companies before they reach the market. Despite Chinas formidable drug development pipeline, the nation still faces outsized challenges around financing innovative and late stage trials, multiple competitors racing to patent highly similar versions of a single drug, and pricing pressure from generic versions of drugs whose patents have expiredall of which might stall Chinas influence.
U.S. Pharmas Secret Weapons
While China ramps up novel cancer treatments, the U.S. remains a powerhouse with the infrastructure, academic institutions, and regulatory systems that will ensure it continues to play a critical role in the global market.
While the U.S. does not have an overwhelmingly large global share of the development of any kind of drug, it still has a significant portion of many of the largest, and most exciting types. These include:
Radiopharmaceuticals: Radioactive molecules injected into the body for both targeted cancer irradiation and medical imaging. Theyre already a multi-billion-dollar market, and the U.S. controls 40% of those currently in development.
Traditional Small Molecules: The foundation of medicine (Lipitor is an example), these drugs are still extremely widely used and the U.S. controls 37%of those currently in development.
Discovery advantages
Beyond dominating in these two treatment types, the U.S. has a few key advantages that will be its saving grace in the competition for biopharma dominance.
The United States ace-in-the-hole is making initial scientific discoveries. It is still the best at finding new disease processes and ways of designing drugs while Chinas strength is iterating on already-established successes. Take the aforementioned ADCs and CAR-Ts: these innovations were discovered in U.S. labs and China has run with tweaked versions. While China is starting to break ground on developing new biology, the U.S. still has the drug discovery edge.
Secondly, U.S. investors are willing to take risks. While the Chinese state is working to create a strong environment for biotechs, private investors in China are more risk-averse than their Western counterparts. So, there is opportunity in the U.S. to support potentially high-growth areas, such as cell and gene therapy.
Thirdly, dont underestimate manufacturing. Since the announcement of potential tariffs hitting the pharma industry, a number of large drug companies have announced huge investment in their U.S. manufacturing sites. Many of these were almost certainly in the cards already but more investment in the U.S. will help bolster the wider industry. The Biosecure Act also supports this effort, enforcing stricter regulations on the supply chain.
Innovation insurance
Finally, dealmaking is innovation insurance. U.S. big pharma is well used to sourcing innovation and drug development programs through dealmaking, so one can argue that simply extending their gaze East to draw from the new pool in China is not such a shift anyway. Many, if not most, of the next generation therapies are likely to be acquired from abroad before completing their late-stage trials in the U.S. and reaching the market. Continued international licensing will ultimately benefit the bottom lines of American companies.
Chinas genie is out of the bottle and there is no doubt that the countrys ability to develop innovative drugs will continue to thrive. As the landscape diversifies, both countries will play crucial roles in advancing pharmaceutical innovation. Both the U.S. and China hold unique advantages; now is the moment America can reinvest in theirs to come out on top.
Hello and welcome to Modern CEO! Im Stephanie Mehta, CEO and chief content officer of Mansueto Ventures. Each week this newsletter explores inclusive approaches to leadership drawn from conversations with executives and entrepreneurs, and from the pages of Inc. and Fast Company. If you received this newsletter from a friend, you can sign up to get it yourself every Monday morning.
Modern CEO is coming to you today from the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity. What started 60 years ago as an advertising awards program has evolved into an annual gathering of media and marketing executives that is increasingly attracting business leaders from different industries, including CEOs.
Any CEO who wants to grow, innovate, and stay culturally relevant will benefit from being here, says Shelley Zalis, founder and CEO of the Female Quotient, a community of women in business that hosts a lounge at the event.
Tony Capuano, president and CEO of Marriott, concurs: Cannes Lions is where the worlds most powerful creative conversations happenonstage, over coffee, and in every meeting along the Croisette [Canness main street], says Capuano, who is speaking on a panel with former NBA star Carmelo Anthony at Stagwells Sport Beach activation and moderating a session on food and travel at the JW Marriott. For me and our team, its an essential moment to tap into the energy of global culture, explore how brands are shaping behavior, and build partnerships that help us connect more meaningfully with travelers around the world, he adds.
Cannes: a creative compass
Part of the appeal of the confab is the robust presence of technology giants that are dominant marketing platforms (Alphabets Google Services segment, for example, which includes revenue from search, YouTube, and other ad sources, saw 2024 revenue climb 12%, to $304.9 billion), developers of the generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) tools that are transforming content creation, or both.
Amazon, Canva, Meta, IBM, Microsoft, and Salesforce are among the tech companies popping up in lounges and meeting spaces, and the festival is honoring Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen as its Creative Champion of the Yeara new award that seems designed to ensure the participation of a major tech CEO at the proceedings. The impact of gen AI on creativity will be a major theme this year, attendees say.
The event also offers an opportunity for business leaders to discuss broader issues, such as political and economic risk. Judy A. Smith, founder and president of strategic advisory firm Smith & Company, is speaking on a panel about building and protecting a brand in uncertain times. Smith, who is attending Cannes Lions for the first time, says she sees value in being able to meet and hear from so many decision-makers in a short period of time. Its a great way to stay on top of emerging trends and see whats shaping the future of the industry, she says.
To be sure, those who recommend Cannes Lions as part of the CEO conference circuit are firm believers in the power of creativity and creative leadership in corporate ranks. In a world shaped by perception, confidence, and social connection, creativity is not a department. Its a leadership tool, says Claudia Romo Edelman, who will unveil the latest edition of her We Are All Human Foundations Hispanic sentiment research in Cannes. If youre serious about driving change, theres no better place to sharpen your vision.
Is Cannes a must-do for you?
Should CEOs outside the media and tech ecosystem make the trip to Cannes? You can decide for yourselves: Modern CEO will deliver a few extra dispatches from the event this week with insights and takeaways from panels, interviewsand maybe a few parties. And if you have questions you want me to ask the CEOs I meet, send them to me at stephaniemehta@mansueto.com, and Ill try to work the answers into my newsletters.
Listen, watch, and read more: Postcards from Cannes
What small businesses can learn from Cannes Lions
The Brand-New World podcast explores AIs mastery over the world of advertising
Why Unilever won Creative Marketer of the Year at Cannes Lions last year
If artificial intelligence is going to take over the world, it may need a rebrand. Not only do many of the company logos look like swirling vortexes, but because no one has the patience for its name, a mouthful of eight syllables, we have fallen back on the now-ubiquitous initialism: AI. Those two letters have been on everyones lips for the last several years, but they dont exactly roll off the tongue. Try saying them without sounding like an awkward amalgam of Fonzie (Ayyyy!) and Bart Simpson (Ay, caramba!).
Vowels in English just dont play well together; string too many of them in a row and you soon sound like Old MacDonald having a farm. Sorry, EU, UAE, and IEEE, but abbreviations need some meaty consonants thrown in to give them some heft, la U-S-A! Sam Altman and Jony Ive may learn this the hard way should their newest venture in AI (i.e., io) end up evoking the Lone Ranger (Hi Yo, Silver!) or Ed McMahon (Hiyo!).
AIs written form has issues as well. Like many such constructions, AI initially had periods after both letters to hammer home its status as an abbreviation. Those periods were firmly in place in the title of Steven Spielbergs 2001 A.I. Artificial Intelligence, which went with a belt-and-suspenders naming approach to really make sure that the audience knew what the movie was about.
To this day, some stodgier publications like The New York Times and The New Yorker still insist on the A.I. formulation in their house styles (the latter, as a matter of fact, only just stopped writing Web site this year!). But the rest of the world has dropped the periods in favor of the sleeker AI convention. In this decade, for instance, over 5,000 U.S. trademark applications have contained AI while only 76 specified A.I.
A problem, though, occurs when the period-less AI is expressed with the use of a similarly-hip sans serif typeface. Without those helpful serifs, AI is, to the human eye, indistinguishable from Alas in Al Pacino. (Eerily and fittingly, though, computers can tell the difference.)
[Screenshot: courtesy of the author]
An analysis of U.S. baby name data reveals that names starting with Al peaked in use in the 1990s, meaning that there are many thousands of thirtysomething Americans who live in fear that writing their nickname Al on one of those Hello my name is stickers will inspire confusion, or worse, mockery, from a younger Gen Z coworker. Paul Simon wouldnt have a chance with You Can Call Me Al today.
NBC Sports made lemonade from the lemons of this AI/Al confusion at last years Paris Olympics, delivering custom highlights narrated by an AI version of sportscaster Al Michaels. But the difficulties dont end with the Alans and Alberts of the world. Consider that the definite articlethe theof Arabic, the worlds fifth-most-spoken language, is Al and you start to grasp the full extent of the situation.
One might think that a solution might lie with the British tendency to express acronyms and abbreviations with an initial capital rather than all-caps (Nato rather than NATO). But using Ai just opens new cans of worms ranging from Ai Weiwei to Adobe Illustrator. And thats even before taking into account the recent propensity of high-ranking government officials to mistake artificial intelligence for A.1. Steak Sauce.
Sadly, following the mid-twentieth century origin of the term artificial intelligence, no clever Madison Avenue ad man came up with a catchy nickname like, say, artelligence, and so were stuck for now with AI. If various tech pundits are to be believed, we have just a few years before the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI). But in that time perhaps the worlds best and brightest branding and marketing minds could be assembled in a sort of modern-day Manhattan Project to come up with a replacement for the term AI with which to welcome our new robot overlords.
Government leaders worldwide are talking big about AI transformation. In the U.S., Canada, and the U.K., officials are pushing for AI-first agencies that will revolutionize public services. The vision is compelling: streamlined operations, enhanced citizen services, and unprecedented efficiency gains. But here’s the uncomfortable truthmost government AI projects are destined to fail spectacularly.
The numbers tell a sobering story. A recent McKinsey analysis of nearly 3,000 public sector IT projects found that over 80% exceeded their timelines, with nearly half blowing past their budgets. The average cost overrun hit 108%, or three times worse than private sector projects. These aren’t just spreadsheet problems; they’re systemic failures that erode public trust and waste taxpayer dollars.
When AI projects go wrong in government, the consequences extend far beyond budget overruns. Arkansas’s Department of Human Services faced legal challenges when its automated disability care system caused “irreparable harm” to vulnerable citizens. The Dutch government collapsed in 2021 after an AI system falsely accused thousands of families of welfare fraud. These aren’t edge casesthey’re warnings about what happens when complex AI systems meet unprepared institutions.
The Maturity Trap
The core problem isn’t AI technology itselfit’s the mismatch between ambitious goals and organizational readiness. Government agencies consistently attempt AI implementations that far exceed their technological maturity, like trying to run a marathon without first learning to walk.
Our research across 500 publicly traded companies for a previous book revealed a clear pattern: organizations that implement technologies appropriate to their maturity level achieve significant efficiency gains, while those that overreach typically fail. Combining this insight with our practical work implementing digital solutions in the public sector led to the development of a five-stage AI maturity model specifically designed for government agencies.
Stage 1: Initial/Ad Hoc. Organizations at this stage operate with isolated AI experiments and no systematic strategy.
Stage 2: Developing/Reactive. Agencies begin showing basic capabilities, typically through simple chatbots or vendor-supplied solutions.
Stage 3: Defined/Proactive. Organizations develop comprehensive AI strategies aligned with strategic goals.
Stage 4: Managed/Integrated. Agencies achieve full operational integration of AI with quantitative performance measures.
Stage 5: Optimized/Innovative. Organizations reach full agility and influence how others use AI.
Most government agencies today operate at stages 1 or 2, but AI-first initiatives require stage 4 or 5 maturity. This fundamental mismatch explains why so many initiatives fail. Without the right cultural frameworks, technological expertise, and technical infrastructure, organization-wide transformation based around AI capabilities stand little chance of success.
Start Where You Are, Not Where You Want to Be
The path to AI success begins with brutal honesty about current capabilities. A national security agency we studied exemplifies this approach. Despite seeing enormous opportunities in large language models, they recognized serious risks around data drift, model drift, and information security. Rather than rushing into advanced implementations, they are pursuing incremental development grounded in institutional knowledge and cultural readiness.
This measured approach doesn’t mean abandoning ambitious goalsit means building toward them systematically. Organizations must select projects that are appropriate to their maturity level while ensuring each initiative serves dual purposes: delivering immediate value and advancing foundational capabilities for future growth.
Three Immediate Opportunities
For agencies at early maturity stages, three implementation areas offer immediate value creation opportunities while building toward transformation:
1. Information Technology Operations
IT represents the most accessible entry point for government AI adoption. The private sector offers a road map 88% of companies now leverage AI in IT service management, with 70% implementing structured automation operations by 2025, up from 20% in 2021.
AI can transform government IT through chatbots handling common user issues, intelligent anomaly detection identifying network problems in real-time, and dynamic resource optimization automatically adjusting allocations during peak periods. These capabilities deliver immediate efficiency gains while building the technical expertise and collaborative patterns needed for higher maturity levels.
The challenge lies in government’s unique constraints. Stringent security requirements along with legacy systems at agencies like Social Security and NASA create implementation hurdles that private sector organizations rarely face. Success requires careful navigation of these constraints while building foundational capabilities.
2. Predictive Analytics
Predictive analytics represents perhaps the highest-value opportunity for early-stage agencies. Government organizations possess vast data resources, complex operational environments, and urgent needs for better decision-makingperfect conditions for predictive AI success.
The U.S. military is already demonstrating this potential, using predictive modeling for command and control simulators and live battlefield decision-making. The Department of Veterans Affairs has trialed suicide prevention programs using risk prediction algorithms to identify veterans needing intervention. Beyond specialized applications, predictive analytics can improve incident management, enable predictive maintenance, and forecast resource needs across virtually any government functin.
These implementations advance AI maturity by building essential data management practices and analytical capabilities while delivering immediate operational benefits. Unlike complex generative AI systems, predictive analytics can be implemented successfully at any maturity stage using well-established machine learning techniques.
3. Cybersecurity Enhancement
Cybersecurity offers critical immediate value, with AI applications spanning digital and physical protection domains. Modern AI security platforms process vast amounts of data across networks, endpoints, and physical spaces to identify threats that traditional systems missa capability that is particularly valuable given increasing attack sophistication.
Current implementations demonstrate proven value. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Automated Indicator Sharing program enables real-time threat intelligence exchange. U.S. Customs and Border Protection deploys AI-enabled autonomous surveillance towers for border situational awareness. The Transportation Security Administration uses AI-driven facial recognition for streamlined security screening.
While national security agencies implement the most advanced applications, these capabilities offer immediate value for all government entities with security responsibilities, from facility protection to data privacy assurance.
Building Systematic Success
Creating sustainable AI capabilities requires following five key principles:
Build on existing foundations. Leverage current processes and infrastructure while controlling implementation risks rather than starting from scratch.
Develop mission-driven capabilities. Create implementation teams that mix technological and operational expertise to ensure AI solutions address real operational needs rather than pursuing technology for its own sake.
Prioritize data quality and governance. AI systems only perform as well as their underlying data. Implementing robust data management practices, establishing clear ownership, and ensuring accuracy are essential prerequisites for success.
Learn through limited trials. Choose use cases where failure won’t disrupt critical operations, creating space for learning and adjustment without catastrophic consequences.
Scale what works. Document implementation lessons and use early wins to build organizational support, creating momentum for broader transformation.
The Path Forward
Government agencies don’t need to choose between ambitious AI goals and practical implementation. The key is recognizing that most transformation happens through systematic progression. While strategic leapfrogging is possible in some situations, it is the exception rather than the norm. By starting with appropriate projects, building foundational capabilities, and scaling successes, agencies can begin realizing concrete AI benefits today while developing toward their longer-term transformation vision.
The stakes are too high for continued failure. With 48% of Americans already distrusting AI development and 77% wanting regulation, government agencies must demonstrate that AI can deliver responsible, effective, and efficient outcomes. Success requires abandoning the fantasy of overnight transformation in favor of disciplined, systematic implementation that builds lasting capabilities.
The future of government services may indeed be AI-first, but getting there requires being reality-first about where agencies stand today and what it takes to build toward tomorrow.(This article draws on the cross-disciplinary expertise and applied research of Faisal Hoque, Erik Nelson, Professor Thomas Davenport, Dr. Paul Scade, Albert Lulushi, and Dr. Pranay Sanklecha.)
Almond, oat, coconut, and soy milks are only a fraction of the dozens of alternative milk options lining grocery store aisles and cluttering the countertops of coffee shops. If you can make milk out of it, there’s a good chance, you can find of a carton of it in a Whole Foods.That nondairy milk boom really exploded in the 2010s, which saw skyrocketing sales for brands like Almond Breeze and Oatly. There was even a great oat milk shortage of 2018.
But nearly a decade later, that may be waning. The rise of social media tradwives, skyrocketing grocery prices, and a backlash against seed oils have veered consumers away from alternative milk choices and seemingly back to cows.
According to Agricultural Marketing Service data, dairy milk is on the rise again with whole milk sales seeing a 1.6% increase from 2023 to 2024, and organic milk seeing a nearly 7% increase in sales. Plant-based milks, though, experienced a 4.4% decrease in sales in that same time period.
Dairy milks have long been a bigger market than plant-based optionsU.S. milk production grew to $59.2 billion in 2022, while alternative milks are just under $6 billion market. But that recent drop in plant-based milk sales marked the first decline for the alt-milk industry in years. With this new growth in the dairy sector, the gap between animal and plant-based milks is widening, and alternative milks may struggle to keep up.
Looking at the alternative milk space, options such as almond and oat are among some of the most popular choices for consumers, with almond milk holding the top spot since 2013, and its sales alone accounting for over 50% of all alt-milk sales. Oat milk holds the trophy for second-most popular nondairy milk choice, since its popularity skyrocketed in 2020.But specific brands may be struggling in an increasingly oversaturated market. Oatly was once the top-performing brand that couldnt keep its greyish-blue cartons on grocery store shelves, but recently it has been trending in the opposite direction. The company’s stock in U.S. markets is 98% below what their initial public offer was in 2021. In the first quarter of 2025, Oatly saw a 10.6% decrease in North American revenue compared to the first quarter of 2024.
Protein, seed oils, and concerns about processed foods
At the start of the alt-milk revolution, and to this day, nondairy milk brands position themselves as healthier than cows milk. Brands like Almond Breeze say that their almond milk has 50% more calcium than dairy milk (300 milligrams in a cup of cow’s milk versus 450 in a cup of Almond Breeze). Oatly says its levels of calcium, vitamin D, and riboflavin nearly mirror that of cows milk (levels are within a gram or two of each other).
But consumer’s health obsessions are changing: they care less about their daily calcium intake and more about protein. The phenomenon of putting high-protein labels on any and all food and drink products has swept the internet into a health frenzy.
Misleading claims about the nutrition on TikTok have also taken a toll: In one representative video, a self-identifying nutritionist who posts high-protein recipes, listed all the reasons she doesnt drink oat milk for her gut health, including claiming that inflammation from ingredients like canola oil and sugar spikes due to amylase, an enzyme used to break down the oat’s starches into sugars that aid in achieving a creamy texture. Instead, she opts for coconut or other alt-milk types that have no “filler oils” like canola and sunflower. Others on the platform cite, without much evidence, skin concerns and blood sugar spikes, as reasons they’ve gone back to dairy from plant-based options.
Critics call seed oils “toxic,” and according to the Cleveland Clinic, these oils can contribute to some inflammation. But the real concern, experts say, is the fact that seed oils are mostly used in processed and ultra-processed foods, like packaged snacks and candy. In moderation, and when not heated at high temperatures, seed oils can be a part of a healthy diet.
Oatlys products specifically use rapeseed oil, also known as canola oil, in varying levels for texture purposes. The oil, when mixed with the oats, lends itself to a creamy texture, and, in Oatlys Barista edition, a better froth.
The company even defends its processed nature, stating the catchall term doesnt take into account that some products need to be processed to exist at all. After all, you cant milk oats in your hands. Other popularly ultra-processed foods include tofu, breakfast cereals, and cheeses.
Still, the stigma surrounding over-processed and oil-filled products has spread to every corner of the internet. And this has started to prove as a major advantage for cows milk companies, particularly organic ones. Rick Simington, chief commercial officer of Organic Valley, a farmer-owned milk cooperative producing organic milk, says these trends have allowed for dairy products to “shed the demonized tone from the 2000s”.
[Consumers] want to know where their product comes from, the benefits, and that there are clean ingredients,” Simington said. “Those three things together are really whats allowing us to unleash our growth as well as our execution.
But alt milks aren’t going away completely
Despite these challenges, the nondairy indstry is still expected to continue to grow. Research firm Mordor Intelligence says the plant milk industry is expected to grow 12.33% a year over the next five years, to a more than $10 billion market. Over the same time period, the U.S. dairy milk market is expected to grow by 3.5% a year.
Even with dairy growing at a lower percentage rate, nondairy alternatives still have a lot of ground to cover if they’re going to catch up. Some of the newer and trending alt-milk products include pistachio, a nut that is notably having its moment. Brands like Táche claim to use zero added oils and be lower in sugars, calories, and carbs than Oatly. Hemp milk is also reportedly making headway as the fastest growing alt-milk option, with a growth projection on 14% over the next four years.
Generally speaking, plant-based milk choices are still considered better for the environment because they use less water and land, and produce less carbon emissions. They also appeal to those looking to avoid the hormones added to cows milk, due to a proposed link to increased cancer risks. And some just say that cows milk is for calves and not humans.
And though dairy milks that are whole, organic, and lactose-free are doing well in current markets, non- and lower-fat milks such as skim and 1% have all fallen in consumption. Each have steadily declined since their peaks in the late 1990s, with skim milk falling more than 75% in sales from 1998 to 2024, and 1% milk declining more than 50%.
In response to its recent dip in revenue and the rise in dairy-milk sales, Oatlys North American President, Helge Weitz, says he isn’t concerned. He says new Oatly offerings are selling well, and that the brand is finding new ways to reach American consumers.
Our latest creative campaign shed light on a recent study suggesting that five times more peopleover 50 million Americansmight prefer Oatly in their coffee over cows milk, Weitz said. They just havent tried it yet.
We’ve become accustomed to seeing rainbows as a symbol of Pride. But for Levi’s 2025 Pride collection, the brand’s LGBTQ+ designers wanted to shake up the status quo. They’ve delved into their history, tapping into another well-known icon of gay liberationthe inverted triangle.
The rainbow flag was created in 1978 as a symbol of freedom and dignity. But in the 1970s, the gay liberation movement often deployed the pink trianglewhich the Nazis used to brand homosexual men and trans women in concentration camps. Activists recast the triangle as a symbol of resistance and resilience, despite efforts to exterminate them. This year’s Levi’s Pride collection incorporates the pink triangle and a new riff that creates a single triangle from six smaller ones using colors from the Pride flag.
[Photo: Levi’s]
Today, the LBGTQ+ community continues to be under attack. The Trump administration has defunded gender-affirming care for youth, moved trans women into men’s prisons, and denied requests for gender markers on passports. It also cut funding for studies related to HIV/AIDS, a disease that disproportionately affects LGBTQ+ people.
Brands have also been walking back their visible support for the community. Many companiesincluding Anheuser-Busch, Comcast, Citi, PepsiCo, Booz Allen Hamilton, Deloitte, Visa, and Mastercardhave chosen to discontinue sponsorship of Pride celebrations this year. In a recent survey from risk management firm Gravity Research, 39% of the 200 corporate executives surveyed said they were scaling back on public Pride Month engagements this year.
That brand landscape is why Cristobal Alemana global menswear designer at Levi’s who was lead researcher for this Pride collectionsays resistance is more important than ever.
“We’re not stepping away from the rainbow, because it makes people feel supported,” Aleman says. “But by reflecting back on other symbols of resistance, we remember that the fight is not over yet. We still need to carry the torch.”
[Photo: Levi’s]
Paying Homage
To create this collection, the Levi’s designers, led by Aleman, conducted extensive research in the companys own archives as well as the GLBT Historical Society in San Francisco. This is how they decided to lean into the triangle rather than the rainbow.
In the early 1970s, you could see many people at protest marches wearing pins and T-shirts featuring the inverted pink triangle, which organizers in the nascent gay liberation movement used to evoke the memory of those who died in Nazi concentration camps, as well as to protest ongoing discrimination. In the years that followed, it became a symbol of resilience. In a well-known photo, gay rights activist Harvey Milk is seen wearing it on an armband.
As the AIDS crisis deepened, the AIDS Coalition to Unleash Power (ACT UP) began using a point-up pink triangle in its messaging, starting with its “Silence=Death” campaign.
With this collection, Levi’s is working to honor the symbol’s history. One T-shirt features an inverted pink triangle that contains the words “United for Freedom.” But the designers also want to evolve this symbologyhence the new inverted triangle featuring the smaller triangles in all the colors of the Pride flag.
[Photo: Levi’s]
“We’re not just slapping rainbows on existing products,” says Janine Chilton-Faust, VP of men’s design, who led the creation of this collection. “We bring together designers from many teams to create a line with meaning. The magic happens when you bring people who are passionate and who really understand how it feels to be in this community right now.”
The Fight Isn’t Over
The team also wanted to incorporate other powerful symbols of resistance. They created a handkerchief to pay homage to the hanky code, which is how people reflected their sexual orientation and preferences when it was not safe to do so overtly. The fabric features historic iconography related to the LBGTQ+ community, including a raised fist and a butterfly, with the motto “Out of the closet, into the streets” in the center.
[Photo: Levi’s]
“We were listening to the community and there was a sense that ‘rainbow-washing’ was happening,” Aleman says, referring to the way that corporations have used the rainbow so ubiquitously that it has lost its meaning. “We thought the triangle was a very courageous symbol of resilience and protest against homophobia, which is something we need in our world right now.”
The brand’s deep dive into historical LGBTQ+ symbols also reflects Levi’s long-standing support for the community. The 172-year-old company was supporting the LGBTQ+ community before doing so became more widespread in corporate America.
This year, Levi’s is showing its support by continuing to fund San Francisco Pride, as well as Pride events in Poland. It also empowered its LGBTQ+ designers to come up with a Pride Collection that meets the moment.
In the brand’s archives, there are photos of its lesbian and gay employee association marching in a protest for LGBTQ+ rights in the 1980s bearing a “Levi Strauss & Co. sign. In 1992, Levi’s was the first Fortune 500 company to offer health benefits to the domestic partners of LGBTQ+ employees. “This was the height of the AIDS crisis,” Aleman says.
Pride and Joy
One of the hero pieces in the collection brings all of these symbols together. On the back of a classic Levi’s trucker jacket, there’s a gorgeous patchwork that features the new triangle symbol, along with butterfly wings. The words “I know you know” are embroidered onto ita phrase LGBTQ+ people used to identify each other before it was safe to be open about their identity. The motto also appears on a baseball cap in the collection.
[Photo: Levi’s]
While this collection is about the ongoing fight for liberation, it is also meant to be joyful. Aleman says one of the most radical ways we can show the LBGTQ+ community support right now is to give them safe spaces. As the team was developing this collection, they were thinking about places where people from the community can be themselves. Historically, this has often been in nightlife spots, including gay and lesbian clubs.
The various pieces in the collection are meant to give people outfits for a fun night on the town. There’s a little black mini skirt (modeled by people of both genders), cutoff shorts, and moto jackets. These are pieces you would wear with your friends to have fun and experience joy,” Aleman says. “Joy is also an act of resistance.”
Both sides are missing the point entirely as Congress debates the proposed 10-year ban on state AI laws contained in the Big, Beautiful Bill.
The current wrangling over who should regulate privacy, deepfakes, and bias in AI confuses the forest for the trees because it solely focuses on who decides what we should not do.
In contrast, state AI leaders from across the country are gathering this week in New Jersey to ask the critical question: What can we do to responsibly take advantage of powerful AI tools to solve our hardest problems, improve governance, and strengthen democracy?
More than just another conference, the June 16 gathering in Princeton of these newly appointed senior AI leaders is a working meeting to produce concrete answers to questions like: What should government build? What should we buy? Who should own and control it? What investments should governments make to ensure we are building the technology to address challenges like climate change, literacy, and the integrity of our democracy? And how do we ensure the tools we put in schools, government agencies, and our communities are designed to improve lives?
Since the Cold War, we have viewed technology as either a tool of bureaucratic control and dehumanization or an opportunity for wealth creation and profit. But as federal discourse revolves around unrestricted development or regulation, states are serving as laboratories for democratic AI innovation.
So beyond black and white bans, we must expand the debate to include how we can actually improve our institutions with AI. Not just corporate-owned tools like ChatGPT, but AI tools specifically designed from the ground up for government.
Ineffective government services have become a political punchline, but a growing number of local governments are using AI to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of critical services with promising results.
State officials in Ohio are using AI to analyze its sprawling administrative code to cut red tape. Two centuries of accumulated regulations have created a confusing warren of obsolete, redundant, and conflicting demands that businesses must navigate, hindering progress. AI helped identify outdated requirements, conflicting rules, and opportunities for modernization including cutting 600,000 words from the building code alone, eliminating 521 rules for defunct lottery games, and moving paper-based processes online. The governors office estimates these changes will save taxpayers $44 million and eliminate 58,000 hours of unnecessary government work over the next decade.
Meanwhile, Maryland, Colorado, Hawaii, and New Jersey have been using machine learning to analyze labor market data to provide workers with career and training recommendations tailored to their skills and hopes. In New Jersey, the Department of Labor and the Office of Innovation have used AI to help rewrite emails in plain language, which residents are responding to 35% faster.
At its Affordable New Jersey Communities for Homeowners and Renters (ANCHOR) property tax relief program hotline, the state’s division of taxation has been using AI tools to analyze calls to generate better self-service menu options so residents can find what they need without waiting to speak to an agent. This has led to a 50% increase in the number of successfully resolved calls.
Despite those who believe institutions can be replaced by markets or decentralized networks, democracys survival depends on strong, effective institutions. The task ahead is to harness AIs power to upgrade their capacity, and next week, state leaders will do just that in Princeton.
Artificial intelligence holds as much potential to bolster democracy as to harm it. It can incite division, but it can also foster civil discourse. It can spawn disinformation, but also help us identify it. We can choose to use these increasingly ubiquitous tools to reinforce our democracy, mend the tears, and strengthen the bonds.
We have built extraordinary tools. But were not yet using them where theyre needed most: to fix our democratic institutions. What if we treated democracy like we treat cancer or carbon? Where is the National Institutes of Health of democratic trust? The Advanced Research Projects AgencyEnergy of elections?
So the debate around AI must extend beyond just regulation, and states are showing what is possible when we think bigger about these powerful tools and use them responsibly. It is time our federal government does so as well.
When was the last time you identified as human? Typically, we identify with who we are as it applies to our career (accountant!), family dynamic (mom!), sports (Pacers!), and arts and culture (deadhead!). Rarely have we ever felt or had the need to make the distinction between human or . . . not. But in the age of AI, its increasingly become a priority.
Back in April, Tools for Humanitya start-up cofounded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altmanunveiled its solution to this problem. Its a brand called World, an identity and financial network that includes a cryptocurrency called Worldcoin and an unprecedented piece of hardware: The Orb. The volleyball-size spherical device uses a retina scan to authenticate users as a human, and then provides a digital verification code.
[Image: courtesy World]
So far, World has more than 27 million participants and nearly 13 million verified humans across more than 20 countries. Its goal is to verify 50 million people by the end of 2025, and eventually sign up every single human being on the planet. The company hopes the biometric verification code it creates will essentially be our digital passport, to ward against fake AI-driven content, and needed for everything from online banking to dating apps. Altman told Time, If this really works, its like a fundamental piece of infrastructure for the world.
But first, it needs to convince us all to use it. Now, to mark its U.S. debutwith the opening of World retail locations and Orb installation in six U.S. cities (Austin, Nashville, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, and Atlanta) World has launched a new ad campaign to establish its own brand identity with the humans it hopes to attract.
Set the tone
Created with ad agency BBDO New York, Human and You Know It is an earnest, peppy jingle ad that positions the Orb as an invaluable tool for, and ally in, our AI-driven future. We see cavemen lighting fires, Michelangelo painting the Sistine Chapel ceiling, one of the Wright Brothers flying an early aircraft, all singing this peppy ode to human ingenuity.
World was created so that everyone could benefit from what’s happening around the age of AI, says Tools for Humanity chief marketing officer John Patroulis. What we’re hoping to do with a piece like this is celebrate what it is to be human, the vulnerabilities. So we were trying to capture the feeling of who we are and what we’re trying to accomplish.
Its a similar message to what OpenAI CMO Kate Rouch told me earlier this year on Fast Companys Brand New World podcast. Her goal with work like the brands Super Bowl ad was to show what the product can do for us, while expressing the company’s values. In all of our advertising, we’ll really try to show and lead with the technology, what it can do for people and how it can benefit people, Rouch said. Again, the people part is key.
BBDO executive creative director Jimm Lasser says that the tone and personality here is perhaps the most important part. Theres a reason they used a familiar song in a familiar advertising context. For an unprecedented product and brand, there were a lot of questions to answer to get to that tone.
Should it be earnest? Optimistic? Funny? All of that? Then they had to figure out how much of it needed to explain the Orb technology and how it works.
It was a challenge, I’m not gonna lie, says Lasser. I told my wife I think this is the weirdest thing Ive ever worked on. It took a lot of unpacking. First, you have to understand the technology, and then you have to believe. You have to put your cynicism asidewhich you’re naturally going to haveand really look at it, at what this could do for humans.
This isnt a product demo. Its a personality test. The World brand is telling us who it is and why we should trust it if its to be, as Altman says, a fundamental piece of infrastructure for the world. It needs to be friendly, nonthreatening, somewhat inspiring, and yes, optimistic. Tone matters in all advertising, but within the context of our AI-driven existential instability, even more. Just ask Apple Crush or Google Dear Sydney.
Amid all of our AI fears and concerns, World knows it needs to feel more like Peppa Pig than Emperor Palpatine. It wouldnt quite hit the same if they were all singing, More Human Than Human by White Zombie.
[Image: courtesy World]
Brand spirit
One of the keys to hitting that tone was director and ad legend Jim Jenkins, who is perhaps known more for big, funny Super Bowl ads like State Farms 2024 Arnold Schwarzenegger spot, and Uber Eats big game ad this year with Matthew McConaughey. The World spot is light and juuuust goofy enough. Sure, it’ll make some people cringe but it’s not going to scare anybody.
While the bulk of the ad is simply shows good ol humans singing the jingle, at the end, a woman uses The Orb to show us what all the fuss is about, tying the spirit of the brand to its product. Lasser says this was also a crucial part of the tone.
Having worked on car advertising for a long time, it’s always important to see how people interact with the car, says Lasser. Here, we really thought through how that interaction with the Orb takes place, that you can see the scale. You need to see the scale of it in comparison to a human, her gaze slightly down, all these things make it feel nonthreatening and something that is a tool.
The goal is clear, but the cultural context is much more murky. Despite the reassurances of its use as just a tool, AI is threatening very real jobs, andif you subscribe to the predictions of the AI 2027 report, written by former AI researchersthe very fabric of society, in an incredibly short period of time. Thats quite a brand challenge.
Still, Patroulis says that World has the best tool to take on this challenge: An actual purpose. Many brands struggle with why they exist in the first place, which ultimately impacts their ability to convince you and I to buy in. For World, the goal is clear: To help humans make the most of this AI moment.
When you’re true and authentic to what it is, you’re always in the right place, says Patroulis. That guides everything we’re doing and we wanted this piece to express that. We do a lot to make sure that people are very empowered with information. And the more time you spend with it, and the more you understand it, the better it is, frankly, for the project. That wasn’t the goal here. This piece was about capturing the spirit.
