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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Builders FirstSource, the largest U.S. supplier of building materials and prefabricated components, is valued at $14 billion. Given that it takes orders and makes deliveries to builders across the nation, few firms have a more comprehensive view of both multifamily and single-family construction. Thats why its notable that Builders FirstSource CEO Peter Jackson went out of his way on Thursday to suggest to Wall Street analysts that commentary coming from giant publicly traded homebuilders this earnings season was underplaying softening and softness in residential construction. There were a lot of public homebuilders that have released [earnings] over the past couple of weeks [that reported relatively more positive pictures], versus kind of our signal here that it’s a bit worse than what people are thinking, Jackson told analysts on the company’s July 31 earnings call. Jackson added: Given the inventory environment and what we’re seeing in terms of the land market, what we’re hearing about the takedowns and the contracts, our sense is builders are slowing on the start side . . . Our sense is that slowing, that resetting to a lower [housing starts] rate in order to manage those completed home inventory levels, that’s what’s going to flow through. So that’s the slowing indication that you’ve got from us. This weaker housing demand environment is causing unsold completed inventoryin particular, in the Sun Beltto tick up. Indeed, since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out, the number of unsold, completed U.S. new single-family homes has been rising: June 2018 > 62,000 June 2019 > 79,000 June 2020 > 66,000 June 2021 > 34,000 June 2022 > 38,000 June 2023 > 69,000 June 2024 > 99,000 June 2025 > 119,000 The June figure (119,000 unsold, completed new homes) published this week is the highest level since July 2009 (126,000). To put the number of unsold, completed new single-family homes into historic context, we have ResiClubs Finished Homes Supply Index (see chart above). The index is one simple calculation: the number of unsold, completed U.S. new single-family homes divided by the annualized rate of U.S. single-family housing starts. A higher index score indicates a softer national new construction market with greater supply slack, while a lower index score signifies a tighter new construction market with less supply slack. If you look at unsold, completed single-family new builds as a share of single-family housing starts (see chart below), it still shows we’ve gained slack / single-family construction demand is softening. However, it puts us closer to pre-pandemic 2019 levels than the Great Financial Crisis bust. That said, if new construction or the economy hit a big speed bump and housing starts dropped by 20% to 30%, this ratio would spike quicklyeven if unsold builds didnt increase much. Much of the completed unsold single-family new builds is located in pockets of the Sun Beltin states like Florida, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Tennessee. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}})}(); According to ResiClubs statistical analysis, there is a modest to moderate correlation between recent single-family permitting levels and active inventory rising above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. In other words, many of the places where single-family homebuilders have the strongest presence are also the housing markets that have experienced the greatest recent softening. If you talk to homebuilders in Cleveland, Boston, or New Haven, youre likely to hear a very different story right now than from their peers in Tampa, Austin, and San Antonio.
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E-Commerce
Tesla has granted CEO Elon Musk shares worth about $29 billion, in a new pay deal aimed at keeping the billionaire entrepreneur at the helm during a crucial pivot from its struggling core auto business to robotaxis and humanoid robots. The company described the grant of the 96 million new shares as a first step, “good faith” payment to honor Musk’s more than $50 billion pay package from 2018 that was struck down by a Delaware court last year. A longer-term CEO compensation plan will be put to a vote at its annual investor meeting on November 6. The Delaware ruling had cited flaws in the board’s approval process and unfairness to investors. Musk kicked off an appeal against the order in March, claiming a lower court judge made multiple legal errors in rescinding the record compensation. The world’s most valuable automaker is at a turning point, with Musk, its largest shareholder with a 13% stake, positioning it more as an AI and robotics company amid falling sales in its mainstay auto business and a slump in its share price. The share award is designed to gradually boost Musk’s voting power, something he and shareholders have consistently insisted was key to keeping him focused on Tesla’s mission, said a special committee Tesla formed earlier this year to consider Musk’s compensation. It consists of chair Robyn Denholm and independent director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson. “While we recognize Elon’s business ventures, interests and other potential demands on his time and attention are extensive and wide-ranging we are confident this award will incentivize Elon to remain at Tesla,” the committee said in Monday’s filing. The new shares vest only if Musk remains in a key executive role through 2027. They also have a five-year holding period, except to cover tax payments or the purchase price of $23.34 per share, which is equal to the exercise price of the 2018 award. If the Delaware courts fully reinstate the 2018 CEO Performance Award, the new interim grant will either be forfeited or offset and there will be no “double dip,” according to the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. “This is simply a repackaged version of what was done years ago and was ruled improper by a judge,” said Charles Elson, founding director of the Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware. “It renders the Delaware court decision effectively meaningless,” said Elson, who had filed amicus briefs supporting the Delaware Court’s decision to void Musk’s 2018 award. AUTO BUSINESS STRUGGLES Gary Black, a longtime Tesla investor who sold his position recently, said on X the award should be viewed “very favorably” for the company as it aligns Musk’s incentives with the shareholders and removes uncertainty about him leaving. Tesla shares rose more than 2% in premarket trading. They have gained almost 2,000% in the past decade, far outperforming the around 200% increase in the benchmark S&P 500 index. But the stock has come under pressure this year, losing about a quarter of its value as Tesla grapples with a sales decline wrought by its aging vehicle line-up, tough competition and Musk’s political stances that have alienated some buyers. The challenges have been worsened by U.S. government cuts in support for EVs. Musk said at a post-earnings call last month the waning subsidies could lead to a “few rough quarters” before a wave of revenue from self-driving software and services begins late next year. Analysts expect Tesla to post another annual sales decline in 2025 after its first one last year. S&P Global Mobility data shared exclusively with Reuters showed on Monday that Tesla’s brand loyalty had plunged since Musk endorsed U.S. President Donald Trump last summer. The world’s most powerful person and its richest had a falling out earlier this year. And Musk has raised fears about whether he will be able to devote enough time and attention to Tesla after he locked horns with Trump by forming a new political party. The company also faces a long regulatory road to its robotaxi bet. It started a small trial of its robotaxis in Austin, Texas, June with about a dozen Model Y SUVs. But it lacks permits to offer the service in California, where it last week launched a ride-hailing service in the San Francisco Bay Area without indicating whether it would be using self-driving vehicles that power its Austin operations. (Reporting by Aditya Soni in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Zaheer Kachwala and Jaspreet Singh; Editing by Anil D’Silva) Aditya Soni, Reuters
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E-Commerce
Boeing workers who build fighter jets went on strike Monday at midnight Central Daylight Time.About 3,200 workers at Boeing facilities in St. Louis; St. Charles, Missouri; and Mascoutah, Illinois, voted to reject a modified four-year labor agreement with Boeing, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union said Sunday.In a post on X, the union said: “3,200 highly-skilled IAM Union members at Boeing went on strike at midnight because enough is enough.”The vote followed members’ rejection last week of an earlier proposal from the troubled aerospace giant, which had included a 20% wage increase over four years.“IAM District 837 members build the aircraft and defense systems that keep our country safe,” said Sam Cicinelli, Midwest territory general vice president for the union, in a statement. “They deserve nothing less than a contract that keeps their families secure and recognizes their unmatched expertise.”At the time of the earlier vote, union leaders had recommended approving the offer, calling it a “landmark agreement” and saying it would improve medical, pension and overtime benefits.The union members rejected the latest proposal after a weeklong cooling-off period.“We’re disappointed our employees rejected an offer that featured 40% average wage growth and resolved their primary issue on alternative work schedules,” said Dan Gillian, Boeing Air Dominance vice president and general manager, and senior St. Louis site executive. “We are prepared for a strike and have fully implemented our contingency plan to ensure our non-striking workforce can continue supporting our customers.”Boeing has been struggling after two of its Boeing 737 Max airplanes crashed, one in Indonesia in 2018 and the other in Ethiopia in 2019, killing 346 people. In June, one of Boeing’s Dreamliner planes, operated by Air India, crashed, killing at least 260 people.Last week, Boeing reported that its second-quarter revenue had improved and losses had narrowed. The company lost $611 million in the second quarter, compared to a loss of $1.44 billion during the same period last year. Cathy Bussewitz, Associated Press
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