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A small government office with some 275 employees has found itself caught in the political crossfire as Congress debates President Donald Trumps one big, beautiful bill.” The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the legislation would increase federal deficits by about $2.4 trillion over 10 years. That’s a problem for a Republican Congress that has spent much of the past four years criticizing former President Joe Biden and Democrats for the nation’s rising debt levels. The White House and Republican leaders in Congress are taking issue with CBO’s findings. They say economic growth will be higher than the office is projecting, resulting in more revenue coming into government coffers. Meanwhile, Democrats are touting CBO’s findings as evidence of the bill’s failings. Here’s a look at the office at the center of Washington’s latest political tug-of-war. What is the CBO? Lawmakers established the Congressional Budget Office more than 50 years ago to provide objective, impartial analysis to support the budget process. The CBO is required to produce a cost estimate for nearly every bill approved by a House or Senate committee, and will weigh in earlier when asked to do so by lawmakers. It also produces a report each Congress on how to reduce the debt if lawmakers so choose, with each option including arguments for or against. Plus, it publishes detailed estimates when presidents make proposals that would affect mandatory spending, which includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Lawmakers created the office to help Congress play a stronger role in budget matters, providing them with an alternative to the Office of Management and Budget, which is part of a Republican or Democratic administration, depending upon the president in office. Is the CBO partisan? CBO hires analysts based on their expertise, not political affiliation. Staff is expected to maintain objectivity and avoid political influence. In evaluating potential employees, the CBO says that for most positions, it looks at whether that person would be perceived to be free from political bias. Like other federal employees, the CBO’s staff is also prohibited from making political contributions to members of Congress. The CBO’s director, Phillip Swagel, served in former Republican President George W. Bushs administration as an economic adviser and as an assistant secretary at the Treasury Department. Why is the CBO being attacked now? The stakes are incredibly high, with Republicans looking to pass their massive tax cut and immigration bill by early July. Outside groups, Democrats, and some Republicans are highlighting CBO’s analysis that the bill will increase federal deficits by about $2.4 trillion over 10 years and leave 10.9 million more people uninsured in 2034. Republicans spent much of Biden’s presidency focused on curbing federal deficits. They don’t want to be seen as contributing to the fiscal problem. GOP lawmakers say the CBO isn’t giving enough credit to the economic growth the bill will create, to the point where it would be deficit-neutral in the long run, if not better. “The CBO assumes long-term GDP growth of an anemic 1.8%, and that is absurd,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. The American economy is going to boom like never before after the One Big, Beautiful Bill is passed. Republicans began taking issue with the CBO even before Trump and the current Congress were sworn into office. CBO will always predict a dark future when Republicans propose tax reliefbut the reality is never so dire,” Rep. Jason Smith, the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said in a December news release. Recently, House Speaker Mike Johnson has been taking digs at the office. The CBO is notorious for getting things WRONG, he said in a Facebook post. What did CBO say about the tax cuts enacted in Trump’s first term? In April 2018, CBO said that tax receipts would total $27 trillion from fiscal years 2018 to 2024. Receipts came in about $1.5 trillion higher than the CBO projected. Republicans have seized on that discrepancy. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Some of the criticism of the CBO ignores the context of a global pandemic as the federal government rushed to prop the economy up with massive spending bills under both Trump and Biden. In a blog post last December, Swagel pointed out three reasons for the higher revenues: The primary reason was the burst of inflation that began in March 2021 as the country was recovering from COVID. That burst of inflation, he said, led to about $900 billion more in revenue. There was also an increase in economic activity in the later years of the period that added $700 billion. Also, new tariffs added about $250 billion, with other legislation partially offsetting those three factors. By Kevin Freking, Associated Press
Category:
E-Commerce
President Donald Trumps big bill making its way through Congress will cut taxes by $3.75 trillion but also increase deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The CBO also estimates an increase of 10.9 million people without health insurance under the bill by 2034, including 1.4 million who are in the United States without legal status in state-funded programs. The package would reduce federal outlays, or spending, by nearly $1.3 trillion over that period, the budget office said. In the words of Elon Musk, this bill is a disgusting abomination, said Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, reviving the billionaire former Trump aides criticism of the package. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he called Musk late Tuesday to discuss the criticism but had not heard back. “I hope he comes around, Johnson told reporters. Trump pushing Congress to act The analysis comes at a crucial moment in the legislative process as Trump is pushing Congress to have the final product on his desk to sign into law by the Fourth of July. The work of the CBO, which for decades has served as the official scorekeeper of legislation in Congress, will be weighed by lawmakers and others seeking to understand the budgetary impacts of the sprawling 1,000-page-plus package. Ahead of the CBOs release, the White House and Republican leaders criticized the budget office in a preemptive campaign designed to sow doubt in its findings. Republicans criticize the CBO White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the CBO has been historically wrong, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the CBO was flat wrong because it underestimated the potential revenue growth from Trumps first round of tax breaks in 2017. The CBO last year said receipts were $1.5 trillion, or 5.6% greater than predicted, in large part because of the burst of high inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. White House Budget Director Russ Vought said when you adjust for current policywhich means not counting some $4.5 trillion in existing tax breaks that are simply being extended for the next decadethe overall package actually doesn’t pile onto the deficit. He argued the spending cuts alone in fact help reduce deficits by $1.4 trillion over the decade. Democrats and even some Republicans call that current policy accounting move a gimmick, but it’s the approach Senate Republicans intend to use during their consideration of the package to try to show it does not add to the nation’s deficits. Vought argued that the CBO is the one using a gimmick by tallying the costs of continuing those tax breaks that would otherwise expire. Leavitt also suggested that the CBOs employees are biased, even though certain budget office workers face strict ethical rulesincluding restrictions on campaign donations and political activityto ensure objectivity and impartiality. When it comes time to make prognostications on economic growth, theyve always been wrong, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said at a press conference. Asked if its time to get rid of the CBO, Scalise did not dismiss the idea, saying it’s valid to raise concerns. Alongside the costs of the bill, the CBO had previously estimated that nearly 4 million fewer people would have food stamps each month due to the legislations proposed changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP. What’s in the bill The bill, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after the presidents own catchphrase, is grinding its way through Congress, as the top priority of Republicans, who control both the House and the Senateand face stiff opposition from Democrats, who call it Trumps big, ugly bill. All told, the package seeks to extend the individual income tax breaks that had been approved in 2017 but that will expire in December if Congress fails to act, while adding new ones, including no taxes on tips. It also includes a massive buildup of $350 billion for border security, deportations, and national security. To help cover the lost revenue, Republicans want to slash some federal spending. They propose phasing out green energy tax breaks put in place during Democrat Joe Biden’s presidency. New work requirements for some adults up to age 65 on Medicaid and SNAP would begin in December 2026 and are expected to result in less spending on those programs. Republicans argue their proposals are intended to make Medicaid and other programs stronger by rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse. They want the federal funding to go to those who most need health care and other services, often citing women and children. But Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said those claims are bogus and are simply part of long-running GOP efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, as most states have expanded Medicaid to serve more people under the program. They just want to strangle health care, Schumer said. The package also would provide a $4 trillion increase to the nations debt limit, which is now $36 trillion, to allow more borrowing. The Treasury Department projects the debt limit will need to be raised this summer to pay the nations already accrued bills. CBO aims for impartiality Now in its 50th year, the CBO was established by law after Congress sought to assert its control, as outlined in the Constitution, over the budget process, in part by setting up the new office as an alternativeto the White Houses Office of Management and Budget. Staffed by some 275 economists, analysts, and other employees, the CBO says it seeks to provide Congress with objective, impartial information about budgetary and economic issues. Its current director, Phillip Swagel, a former Treasury official in Republican President George W. Bushs administration, was reappointed to a four-year term in 2023. By Lisa Mascaro, AP congressional correspondent Associated Press writers Kevin Freking and Joey Cappelletti contributed to this report.
Category:
E-Commerce
Following last weeks mainstream debut of the Wall Street-borne acronym TACO, or Trump Always Chickens Out, high-ranking Democrats and random social media users alike have turned the taunt into a weekly celebration: Taco Tuesday. Just in time for a fresh round of tariffs. Though the slogan had quietly circulated for weeks among stock traders navigating tariff turbulence, it hit critical mass on May 28, when a reporter asked Trump about it during a press conference. The presidents nuclear response, a warning to not ever say what you said, ended up Streisand Effect-ing the catchphrase into instant ubiquity. Democrats at the highest levels embraced itincluding Rep. Eric Swalwell, who made a stilted TikTok about it, for which he was rightly roasted onlinewhile millions of others simply wanted to know more. According to CNNs Harry Enten, by May 30, Google searches for Trump TACO had shot up 9,900%. If it werent obvious enough from the press conference, a separate CNN report confirmed that the acronym got under Trumps skin. Apparently, the president later chewed out members of his team for not alerting him that the taco meme had gained traction, leaving him to find out in real time, in full public view. It clearly bothered him, primarily because it demonstrated a lack of understanding about how he actually utilizes those threats for leverage, a source told CNN. But obviously hes not a guy who looks kindly on weakness, so the idea anyone would think that with respect to his actions isnt received well. Perhaps sensing how much the press conference blowup had stung Trump, both elected Democrats and random social media users went all in on the acronym. “Taco Trump” memes retained an ambient internet presence throughout the week, before erupting on- and offline on Tuesday. Taking advantage of the existing cultural branding, Taco Tuesday, Trump critics including Rep. Jamie Raskin used the occasion of the first such day since the slogans debut to drill down on their message. It's Taco Tuesday!— FEISTY (@crzyfkinworld.bsky.social) 2025-06-03T12:48:57.999Z On X and Bluesky, there was a fresh round of AI-generated taco imagery alternately depicting Trump as a chicken, a baby, a restauranteur, a reluctant diner, and, somewhat inexplicably, Mr. Miyagi from the Karate Kid movies. (Tax on, tax off, a caption reads.) Billy Baldwin, younger sibling of perennial Trump foe Alec Baldwin, couldnt resist tweeting some AI slop, while New Yorker artist Barry Blitt offered a decidedly non-AI take on the subject matter. In a new Kvetchbook, Barry Blitt imagines a new portrait of Donald Trump. www.newyorker.com/cartoons/bli…— The New Yorker (@newyorker.com) 2025-06-04T01:15:29.866Z Meanwhile, the Democratic Party commemorated the day by commissioning a taco truck to serve free meals near the Republican National Committees headquarters in DC. Though the gesture risked convincing oblivious pedestrians that Trump himself was offering free tacos, it was meant to contrast Democrats agenda with Trumps tariff tactics. “With his idiotic trade policy,” DNC chair Ken Martin said in a statement, he talks a big game, caves, and then leaves working families and small businesses to deal with the fallout. A TACO truck is parked near the GOP HQ in DC LOLDon't forget to subscribe: www.dworkinsubstack.com/subscribe— Scott Dworkin (@dworkin.bsky.social) 2025-06-03T17:46:33.152Z Making the celebration timelier, this Taco Tuesday happened to fall on the day before Trumps latest tariff gambita whopping increase from 25 to 50% levies on steel and aluminum from nearly every country around the globewent into effect. Senator Adam Schiff was sure to highlight the correlation in his post about the holiday on Bluesky. As for Trumps defenders, the response has mainly been to brush off the taco stuff as cringey. JD Vance quote-tweeted a post touting the Democrats taco truck with a devastatingly dismissive caption, We have the lamest opposition in American history. (Abhi Rahman, deputy communications director for the DNC, quickly responded to the tweet, telling Fox News, “We understand that JD Vance, the cringiest VP in American history who cannot order a donut like a normal human being, prefers to take food away from people, including 40 million Americans whose SNAP benefits were just scrapped in the GOP budget.”) What gives Vances eye-rolling response some heft is the fact that Trump hasnt offered any additional glimpses into his feelings about the acronym since that disastrous press conference. His anger was the reason that TACO took off; his silence on the matter since then has neutralized the power of posts that act as though Trump is actively livid about it at all times. Given that there are now fresh tariffs to potentially back down from, though, and a standing appointment for calling out the pattern if Trump does, the meme might potentially give everyone something to taco bout for weeks to come.
Category:
E-Commerce
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