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This story was originally published by Grist. Sign up for Grist’s weekly newsletter here. Wes Lowe uses so much Claritin that he started an Amazon subscription to avoid running out. His kids take two asthma medications. This reflects the normalcy of pollution in Californias San Joaquin Valley, where residents breathe some of the dirtiest air in the nation. Lowe lives about 20 miles outside of Fresno, in the valleys heart. More than a dozen highways, including Interstate 5, run through the region, carrying almost half of the states truck traffic. The sky is usually hazy, the air often deemed hazardous, and 1 in 6 children live with asthma. You dont realize how bad it is until you leave, Lowe said. He understands Californias urgent need to clear the air by electrifying the trucking industry and pushing older, more polluting machinery off the road. That would reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by 17.1 tons annually by 2037, significantly reduce the amount of smog-forming ozone,and go a long way toward meeting federal air quality requirements. But as a partner at Kingsburg Truck Center, a dealership in Kingsburg, hes seen how difficult this transition will be. More than 15 percent of medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold statewide in 2023 were zero-emission. But the road has been bumpy amid growing uncertainty about Californias regulations and the Trump administrations hostility toward electric vehicles, the clean energy transition, and the states climate policies. The Golden State started its trucking transition in 2021 when it required manufacturers to produce an increasing number of zero-emission big rigs, known as Advanced Clean Trucks, or ACT. The following year, it mandated that private and public fleets buy only those machines by 2036, establishing what are called Advanced Clean Fleets, or ACF. The Environmental Protection Agency granted the waiver California needed to adopt ACT in 2023. But it had not acted on the exemption required to enforce ACF by the time President Donald Trump took office, prompting the state to rescind its application as a strategic move to keep options on the table, according to the California Air Resources Board. The U.S. Senate threw the fate of the Advanced Clean Trucks rule into question when it revoked the states EPA waiver on May 22, stripping the state of its ability to mandate the electrification of private fleets, though it can still regulate public ones. Now the one bright side for the states efforts to clean up trucking is the Clean Trucks Partnership, under which several manufacturers have already agreed to produce zero-emission rigs regardless of any federal challenges. All of this limits Californias ability to ease pollution. The Air Resources Board has said the Advanced Clean Fleet rule would eliminate 5.9 tons of nitrogen oxide emissions in the San Joaquin Valley by 2037. Another rule, the In-Use Locomotive regulation, bans internal combustion trucks more than 23 years old by 2030 and would reduce those emissions by another 11.2 tons. Even with those rules in place, the state would have to cut another 6.3 tons to bring air quality in line with EPA rules. With the fate of Californias campaign to decarbonize trucking in question, even those who want to see it succeed are wavering. Kingsburg Truck Center started selling battery electric trucks in 2022, but saw customers begin to cancel orders once the state was unable to enforce the Advanced Clean Fleet requirement. Lowe has had to lay off seven people as a result. We got heavy into the EV side, and when the mandate goes away, Im like, Shit, am I gonna be stuck with all these trucks? Lowe said. If I were to do it all again, Id probably take a lot less risk on the investment that we made into the zero-emission space. California remains committed to cleaning up trucking. But the transition will require creative policymaking because the Trump administrations hostility to the idea makes it extremely difficult for the state to hit its goal of 100 percent zero-emission truck sales by 2036, said Guillermo Ortiz of the Natural Resources Defense Council. Still, he sees ways the state can make progress. Lawmakers are considering a bill that would give the Air Resources Board authority to regulate ports, rail yards, and warehouses. That would allow regulators to mandate strategies to advance the transition, like requiring facilities to install charging infrastructure. Several state programs underwrite some of the cost of electric trucks, which can cost about $435,000about three times the price of a diesel rig. Thats not to say California isnt fighting back. It plans to sue the Trump administration to preserve its right to set emissions standards. Losing that will make it impossible to ease the Valleys pollution enough to meet air quality standards, said Craig Segall, a former deputy executive director of the Air Resources Board. Advanced Clean Fleets and Advanced Clean Trucks arise out of some pretty hard math regarding whats true about air pollution in the Central Valley and in California, which is that its always been largely a car and truck problem, he said. Even if the state loses the ability to regulate vehicle emissions and require electrification, Segall is confident market forces will push the transition forward. As China continues investing in the technology and developing electric big rigs, he said, companies throughout the rest of the world will need to do the same to stay competitive. He also said that trucking companies will see zero-emission trucks as an opportunity to lower maintenance and fueling costs. The Frito Lay factory in the Central Valley city of Modesto has purchased 15 Tesla electric big rigs. Ultimately, the economic argument for ditching diesels is simply too appealing, said Marissa Campbell, the cofounder of Mitra EV, a Los Angeles company that helps businesses electrify. She said the states decision to table the Advanced Clean Fleets rule hasnt hurt business. No one likes being told what to do, she said. But when you show a plumber or solar installer how they can save 30 to 50 prcent on fuel and maintenanceand sometimes even moretheyre all ears. Valerie Thorsen leads the San Joaquin Valley office of CalSTART, a nonprofit that has, since 1992, pushed for cleaner transportation to address pollution and climate change. She sees the Trump administrations recalcitrance as nothing more than a hurdle on the road to an inevitable transition. But any effort to ditch diesels must be accompanied by an aggressive push to build charging infrastructure. You dont want to have vehicles you cant charge or fuel, she said. The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District won a $56 million federal grant in January 2024, to build two solar-powered EV charging sites along Interstate 5 with 102 chargers specifically for big rigs. About 45 percent of Californias truck traffic passes through the region, which has, over the past 25 years, eased nitrogen oxide emission from stationary sources by more than 90 percent. A majority of the remaining [nitrogen oxide] emissions and smog-forming emissions in the valley come from heavy duty trucks, said Todd DeYoung, director of grants and incentives at the district. The Trump administration quickly halted grant programs like the $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program that would have expanded charging infrastructure. But DeYoung remains confident that construction of the truck chargers will proceed because work started almost immediately. Similar projects are underway in Bakersfield and Kettleman City. Not everyone is convinced the infrastructure needs to roll out as quickly as the trucks. Ortiz said emphasizing the adoption of the trucks will pressure the market to ensure chargers come online. That sends a signal to charging infrastructure providers, to utilities, saying, These vehicles are coming, and we need to make sure that the infrastructure is there to support it, he said. That support is crucial. Bill Hall is new to trucking. He spent decades as a marine engineer, but during the pandemic decided to try something new. He runs a one-man operation in Berkeley, California, and as he carried loads around the state he noticed a lot of hydrogen stations. Intrigued, he reached out to truck manufacturer Nikola to ask about its electric hydrogen fuel cell rigs. His engineering background impressed the startup, which thought hed provide good technical feedback. Hall bought the first truck the company sold in California, augmenting his personal investment of $124,000 with $360,000 he received from a state program in December 2023. Despite a few initial bugs, he enjoyed driving it. As an early adopter, Nikola gave him a deal on hydrogen$5.50 per kilogram, which let him fill up for about $385 and go about 400 miles. I proved that you could actually pretty much take that hydrogen truck to any corner of California with a minimal hydrogen distribution system that they had, Hall said. But weak sales, poor management, and other woes led Nikola to file for bankruptcy in February. Without its technical support, Hall no longer feels comfortable driving his truck. The companys collapse also meant paying full price for hydrogen, about $33 per kilogram these days. Hall is still paying $1,000 a month for insurance and $225 a month for parking. He says the state shares some of the blame for his predicament because it didnt do enough to support the technology. He would have liked to see it distribute 1,000 hydrogen trucks to establish them and subsidize fuel costs. I did the right thing, which ended up being the wrong thing, he said. Beyond the obvious climate implications of ditching diesel lie many health benefits. In addition to generating a lot of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide, the transportation sector is responsible for 80 percent of Californias ozone-forming emissions. Theres no question that the transition away from combustion trucks to zero-emission would save lives, prevent asthma attacks, and generate significant, significant public health benefits all around the state, said Will Barrett, senior director for nationwide clean air advocacy with the American Lung Association. The state has come a long way in the decades since smog blanketed Los Angeles, and the San Joaquin Valley has enjoyed progressively cleaner air over the past 25 years. But people like Luis Mendez Gomez know there is more work to be done, even if the air no longer smells like burning tires. He has lived alongside a busy highway and not far from a refinery outside of Bakersfield for 40 years. It has taken a toll: His wife was hospitalized for lung disease earlier this year, and he knows 10 people who have died from lung cancer. This pollution has been going on for years, Mendez Gomez said. Nobody had cared before, until now. Were pushing the government and pushing companies to help us. But just when it looks like things might change, the federal government appears willing to undo that progress, he said. All the ground they gained is going to go away. Benton Graham This article originally appeared in Grist at https://grist.org/transportation/california-rolls-on-with-electric-trucks-despite-trumps-roadblocks/.Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climate solutions and a just future. Learn more at Grist.org
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E-Commerce
In 2019, a midsized company used a familiar tool: the classic 2×2 scenario matrix. They mapped two axes of uncertainty: economic stability and technological innovation. From that, they built four polished narratives of the future. At the time, it felt rigorous and strategic. Then everything changed. Generative AI erupted into public consciousness. With the release of GPT-3 and a cascade of tools that followed, a technological tidal wave reshaped industries, workflows, and public discourse. Billions of AI-generated images, voices, and texts flooded the digital world. At the same time, resistance grew. Workers voiced concerns about job displacement, regulators scrambled to keep pace, and the public began questioning the speed and direction of changes ahead. Not one of the companys four boxes accounted for this kind of multidimensional disruption. The Future Didnt Fall Into One of Four Boxes Why did their scenarios fall short? Because the 2×2 model, and much of traditional scenario planning, was designed for a more linear, less entangled world. It reduces complex systems into binary trade-offs and often fails to consider the social, emotional, and symbolic forces that drive real transformation. Todays world is shaped by what we call SuperShifts, nine deep, structural transformations that are changing how we live, learn, and work. These include forces such as IntelliFusion, where human and artificial intelligence merge; Techceleration, where technology evolves faster than regulation or adaptation; and Reality Remix, where the physical and digital worlds merge. These are not isolated trends. They are interconnected systemic changes that defy prediction and demand a more sophisticated strategic response. In a world of SuperShifts, planning for the most probable future is no longer enough. We need approaches that embrace complexity, expand foresight, and prepare us for disruptions that do not fit neatly into grids or quadrants. The Problem: Classic Scenarios in a Complex World Traditional scenario planning emerged in an era that felt more stable and linear. The 2×2 model simplifies uncertainty by forcing it into four tidy boxes. For a long time, that structure helped organizations think beyond the status quo. But in todays world, it misses the mark. Leaders now face overlapping disruptions in climate, technology, society, and geopolitics. These arent isolated variables; they are interconnected forces that influence and accelerate one another. Trying to capture this level of complexity within a binary framework reduces rich dynamics into simplistic either-or choices. The result? Shallow narratives that feel disconnected from reality. SuperShifts expose the limits of these old tools. Consider the rise of decentralized governance, AI-human collaboration, or the fragmentation of global systems. These are not subtle evolutions; they are foundational shifts that rewrite the rules of society, economics, and identity. No quadrant can contain that. In a world shaped by systems thinking, nonlinear change, and emotional complexity, traditional scenario methods often flatten what needs to be multidimensional. They strip away nuance, ignore lived experience, and fail to account for emerging tensions that matter most. We need scenario tools that reflect the world we are in now: fast-moving, emotionally charged, and shaped by forces that dont sit still. Enter the Spectrum Foresight Framework Instead of jumping straight into scenarios, Spectrum Foresight Framework begins with what we call Spectrum Shaping, vivid, layered vignettes of possible futures. These arent just speculative stories. They are grounded in Spectrum Layer Analysis (SLA), a seven-layer method that brings emotional, systemic, and symbolic depth to each imagined world. Each Spectrum Shaping is a microcosm, a lived moment in a future shaped by shifts that are already underway. They reflect not just what happens, but how it feels, who it impacts, and what tensions emerge. For example, a Spectrum Shaping built around the rise of AI in mental health might feature: Headlines about virtual therapists replacing human counselors. Systemic drivers, such as underfunded healthcare or surges in AI investment. Power struggles between tech firms and clinical boards. Emotional responses range from relief to existential dread. Cultural narratives about vulnerability and machine empathy. Going Deeper: Spectrum Layer Analysis Within the Spectrum Shaping stage, it utilizes Spectrum Layer Analysis to uncover the layered forces that shape how futures are experienced, not just predicted. SLA is the deep-structure engine behind immersive futures. Rather than crafting flat narratives based on trends, SLA challenges foresight teams to analyze each Spectrum Scene across seven interlocking layers, from observable events to unconscious cultural metaphors. These layers create the world-building scaffolding that turns weak signals into richly textured future scenes. SLA moves foresight from descriptive to dimensional. It moves beyond surface speculation to construct futures that account for identity, power, emotional context, and systemic drivers. And these layers can fall into seven categories: Surface Events and Discourse: Observable signals like headlines, memes, or emerging technologies Structures and Systemic Drivers: Institutional, technological, or infrastructural dynamics beneath the surface Power and Agency: Who holds power, who is excluded, and how agency is negotiated Cultural and Psychological Frames: Collective mindsets, fears, values, and assumptions Conflicts and Tensions: Fractures, resistance, and ideological friction Narratives and Beliefs: Deep-rooted stories that guide behavior and justify decisions Archetypes and Deep Metaphors: The symbolic frameworks and recurring motifs that shape perception By scanning each layer in tandem, organizations can trace how a surface trend, such as AI regulation, may be driven not just by policy shifts but also by deeper stories of control, freedom, fear, and trust. This layered analysis reveals not only what might happen but also why and how it could unfold differently across cultures, industries, or generations. Making business strategy more flexible SLA ensures youre not just reacting to whats visible. It helps you understand why shifts are occurring and how they might evolve differently across cultures, markets, or generations. It bridges foresight and strategy, anchoring each insight in emotional, symbolic, and structural realities. SLA makes strategy stretchable, robust acros multiple futures, yet flexible when the unexpected hits. Its the world-building tool that prepares Spectrum Shaping for their next evolution: full-fledged Spectrum Scenarios. Why you should look at business scenarios with layers Spectrum Scenarios are not just upgraded narratives: theyre a sophisticated, next-generation foresight method that moves beyond the constraints of traditional scenario planning. Each scenario reflects a different way of living, interpreting, and engaging with a future shaped by shared underlying shifts. Unlike traditional scenarios that often rely on archetypes, quadrant-based methods (like 2×2 matrices), or linear forecasts, which produce a limited number of binary outcomes based on two critical uncertainties, Scenarios are multilayered, emotionally resonant, and systemically grounded. They reflect the contradictions, power asymmetries, and diverse worldviews that make strategic planning more human and more real. What Makes It Different Think of these scenarios as parallel lived realities within the same domain, sometimes in the same city, company, or policy environment, but experienced radically differently depending on power, identity, worldview, or system position. Instead of reducing uncertainty to polar opposites like “AI will be regulated” versus “AI will not be regulated,” this approach examines the full range in between. It considers possibilities from tightly controlled AI ecosystems to completely open-source models with minimal oversight. These spectrums are not just visual enhancements. They fundamentally change how leaders think about uncertainty, complexity, and strategic risk. Traditional Scenario MethodsSpectrum ScenariosArchetype-based (e.g. best/worst)Perspective-based (different stakeholder experiences)2×2 or Manoa GridSynthesized from multilayered Spectrum ScenesAim for distinct storiesAllow coexistence and conflict between scenariosEmphasize system-level futuresInclude lived, emotional, and symbolic dimensionsSingle lens or narrative per futureMulti-voiced: scenarios contain inner contradictions How It Works in Practice Organizations begin by identifying key uncertainties, trust in AI, geopolitical realignments, and data autonomy, and mapping them across spectrums, not binary opposites. These drivers are then embedded into SLA-powered Spectrum Scenes. From these scenes, teams synthesize plural Spectrum Scenarios that reflect differing levels of disruption, adoption, identity alignment, and strategic challenge. Each scenario doesnt just describe a world; it invites stakeholders to emotionally inhabit it, question their assumptions, and prototype resilient strategies in response. How to Apply It Spectrum Scenario Design isnt just a thought experiment; its a practical tool set that organizations are already using to rethink strategy, stress-test innovation, and reimagine risk. Heres how to begin putting it into practice: Start with Spectrum Scenes: Choose a strategic domain, such as trust in AI, climate migration, or workforce automation, and build 46 potential future moments in your business using the Spectrum Layer Analysis framework. Dont aim for consensus. Aim for divergence. Scan the seven layers: Analyze not just the surface trends, but the deep drivers: Who holds power? What beliefs shape resistance or adoption? What metaphors are unconsciously driving behavior? Synthesize multiple perspectives: Group your Spectrum Scenes into 35 full scenarios. Each should represent a lived future experience, not an abstract trend line. Ask: Who thrives in this world? Who doesnt? Prototype the future: Bring each scenario to life with tangible artifacts, such as mock headlines, speculative product ads, or user journey maps. These tools help stakeholders feel the future, not just imagine it. Pressure-test your strategy: Now ask the hard questions. What breaks in this future? What thrives? Where are you resilient, and where are you exposed? Spectrum Scenario Design is not a onetime exercise; its a mindset shift. A capability. A practice that builds organizational agility, not by narrowing focus, but by expanding awareness. In a world where change is nonlinear, emotional, and layered, this is how tomorrows leaders build foresight that aligns the future. Scenarios in practice A midsized health tech company specializing in AI-powered diagnostics found itself on the edge of profound disruption. Regulatory regimes were shifting. Public trust in AI was eroding. Traditional strategy tools werent keeping up. The companys existing scenarios failed to anticipate that patients would begin withholding deeply personal data from diagnostic systems. Nor had they accounted for the convergence of conflicting global regulations, or the outright cultural rejection of AI health tech in conservative regions. To better navigate this complexity, the company adopted Spectrum Scenario Planning, beginning with a foundational phase of Spectrum Scenes. The team generated scenes across domains: one spotlighted AI backlash in North America; another imagined spiritual resistance to synthetic diagnostics in Southeast Asia; a third depicted radical health data sovereignty movements in the EU. Each Spectrum Scene captured not just what might happen, but how it might feel, whom it might benefit, or leave behind. Next, the team synthesized these scenes into five Spectrum Scenarios, exploring what it would mean to leverage the SuperShift BioNexus from the book, SuperShifts. These futures ranged from: The decentralization of healthcare into local, AI-supported cooperatives To global frameworks for ethical AI certification To geopolitical blocs forming competing standards for biotech governance Each scenario reflected the different experiences of various stakeholders, including patients, regulators, engineers, and investors; each was analyzed to identify emotional tensions, power dynamics, and system-level risks. To activate strategic imagination, the team created fictional news stories, speculative product packaging, and even AI ethics training modules from imagined futures. These tools allowed executives and stakeholders to connect with the worlds they might soon inhabit emotionally. Finally, the team ran premortems on each scenario, identifying strategic blind spots and stress-testing assumptions. The result? A strategic transformation. The company created a volatility-ready innovation road map, formed alliances based not just on tech compatibility but on shared values, and reoriented its go-to-market strategy toward emergent belief systems around health, autonomy, and trust. They didnt just future-proof their road map. They learned to future-make. From Future-Proofing to Future-Making W cannot predict the future. But we can prepare ourselves to see it more clearly and design for it more confidently. The truth is: traditional scenario planning isn’t broken. It’s just out of breath. In a world of cascading shifts and competing truths, quadrant models are too shallow and too singular. They flatten what should be felt. The next disruption wont fit inside a box. It will emerge from a cultural ripple, a shift in trust, or a story we didnt yet know we were telling ourselves. Scenario planning is dead. Long live Spectrum Scenarios.
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E-Commerce
Summertime is vacation season. The weather is wonderful, the warm days are conducive to taking a break and getting away for a week or two. Plus, it is often easier for families with children to get away when school is not in session. Vacations from work are not only fun, theyre also important. They are a chance to reconnect with family or friends. Theyre also a way to get a break and reset. Because vacations are important, it is useful to think about what youre trying to get out of them, so that you plan them appropriately. A vacation or a trip? I like to distinguish between two kinds of getaways: vacations and trips. A vacation is focused on relaxation. The most difficult choices on a vacation should be where to eat, and whether to read by the pool or the ocean. A trip is busy. Youre there to see new things, meet new people, and explore the world. Both vacations and trips can be rewarding. Vacations provide a true oasis from a packed daily life. The aim is to sleep late, relax, catch up on pleasure reading, and enjoy a slower pace. Vacations are most valuable when the fast pace of life has gotten to you. If youre living a life when every minute is scheduled, then a vacation can remind you that time spent without an agenda has its benefits. It is also useful when you feel like youre always living on the edge of exhaustion. Trips are opportunities to create memories of experiences. They require a lot of advance planning in order to decide exactly where to go and what to do. Just about every day of a trip involves an itinerary in order to maximize what you get out of the place youre visiting. Indeed, many trips are a little stressful while youre on them, but they reward you with memories that you can look back on for a lifetime. Another value of both vacations and trips is that they can slow time down. You have probably noticed that when youre engaged in your normal routine that the days and weeks fly by. That is because your brain is able to predict what is going to happen next, so it doesnt need to store a lot of new information. As a result, the moments go quickly as they are happening, and they dont leave a lot of information behind, so they dont seem that long even when you look back on them. When you break up your routine, the days feel like they slow down, because your brain doesnt know exactly what is going to happen next. Plus, if you are visiting a new place, you have lots of new memories to create, which makes the time feel long when you look back on it as well. Plan to connect Your relationships can suffer during the normal course of life. Running from one thing to the next means that you may not spend as much quality time with your partner as you should. You may miss out on time with children, parents, or friends. As you plan a vacation, think about people you need to connect with and how to use your break to renew these connections. If you have family or friends that live far away from you, consider spending some of your vacation with them. Those moments of reconnection help to refresh relationships that are hard to maintain just with email, calls, and social media. Those visits will also help to create continuity between your life now and your past, which gives you a greater sense of coherence to your life story. That can help you to feel more grounded. Plan to disconnect If youre going to take a vacation, you should also use that time to disconnect from work. One question you need to ask is how long you can go away before you will feel like you need to check in on work. For example, in my role, I find it easy to disconnect from work for a week, but if I were to go away for longer than that, I would feel like I need to check in on decisions that may require my attention. As a result, I tend to go away once toward the beginning of the summer and a second time toward the end rather than taking a single two-week vacation. It is important to really get away from your work. If you check your email every day while youre away, then part of you is being dragged into the context of work on a daily basis. You may not be physically present at work, but mentally you havent gotten the distance you need. By leaving work behind for the duration of your vacation, you create the conditions to feel refreshed and ready to return when the vacation is over. In order to make this work, you also need to ensure that tasks that normally require your input can either be held until your return or that someone else can step in to address your responsibilities in your absence. Make sure you train people to do your job, so that you can leave without having to worry that things will fall apart while youre away. That means you may need to start getting people at work ready now for your absenceeven if your trip is weeks away.
Category:
E-Commerce
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