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Few illustrations have electrified the climate movement more successfullyand globallythan Ed Hawkins’s climate stripes. Since the British climate scientist first published his graphic in 2018, the stripes have been displayed on Times Square billboards, printed on beer cans, splashed across fashion collections, and even woven on a scarf that was worn by the late Pope Francis. The graphic was enshrined as a design object in the Museum of Modern Arts permanent collection in New York. The problem is, “warming stripes” have only ever shown part of the picturenamely, global average temperatures on the surface of the Earth. But climate change doesnt stop at the surface. A newly updated version of the stripes now visualizes the impact climate change has had not just on land, but also on our oceans and the atmosphere. Some parts of the new graphic may come as a surprise. [Image: courtesy Ed Hawkins] The new “Climate Stripes” The new version was developed in collaboration with Ric Williams, a professor in the University of Liverpools Department of Earth, Ocean, and Ecological Sciences, alongside other scientists from the University of Liverpool and the U.K. Met Office. The data behind this expanded graphic has existed for years, but it has remained largely unknown to the public. I got approached by two people saying, What about atmosphere? and What about ocean? So it was a natural thing to do, Hawkins says. Weve had [these] warming estimates for a long time, but having them all in one graphic is what weve managed to do here. For the ocean portion of the graph, the team drew from a mix of long-term ship-based measurements and the Argo float program, an international network of nearly 4,000 autonomous drifting sensors that measure temperature and salinity across the worlds oceans. Their findings revealed that the ocean has been warming at a rate similar to the atmosphere. Thats because a staggering 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is absorbed by the ocean, leading to coral bleaching, mass die-offs of fish, and sea level rise (due to thermal expansion). The atmospheric stripes paint a more complex picture. While the tropospherethe lowest layer of the atmospherehas been steadily warming, the stratosphere above it has been cooling. That contrast might seem strange, but for Hawkins, it is actually one of the clearest fingerprints of human-caused climate change. Here’s how it works: Carbon dioxide acts like a heat-trapping blanket, warming the lower atmosphere and preventing heat from reaching the upper layers. At the same time, more CO in the stratosphere helps it radiate energy out into space more efficiently, which cools it further. The ozone layer is another factor at play. In the 1970s and ’80s, damage from CFCs (the chemicals once used in things like aerosol sprays and old refrigerators) reduced the amount of solar radiation absorbed in the stratosphere, especially in its lower levels, adding to the cooling. Though the ozone layer has been gradually recovering, thanks to international agreements like the Montreal Protocol, the effect is still visible in the data. For Hawkins, this vertical patternwarming below, cooling aboveis a very clear signal that humans are driving it. Nothing else can explain this change, he says. The 2019 Climate Stripes. Global average temperatures 1850-2018each stripe is one year. Blue stripes are cooler years, red stripes are warmer years. [Image: Ed Hawkins] The impact of a visual When Hawkins first released his climate stripes, the image was downloaded more than a million times n its first week. Theres no easy way to quantify its impact beyond those downloads, but Hawkins believes it gave peoplemany of whom may never have engaged with climate sciencea visual way to connect with the data. My local football team in Reading used stripes on their kit for a season, he says. The updated graphic is more complex and unlikely to go viral in quite the same way, but Hawkins believes its a crucial tool for more informed audiences. Thats the key, he says. We need a range of ways of communicating, verbally as well as visually, to different audiences, depending on their level of expertise. He might also need a new range of colors. When 2024 was confirmed as the hottest year on recordsurpassing even the record-breaking heat of 2023Hawkins had to update the visual to include a new, darker red stripe that appears almost black. If temperatures continue to rise over the next few yearsas scientists expect they willhe may have to redesign the entire visual scale. I have painted myself into a corner, he says. The scientist anticipates having to rescale the entire graphic to reflect a broader temperature range. Thats a message in itself, he adds.
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Companies are spending more than $65 billion globally on corporate wellness, offering everything from meditation rooms and resilience webinars to nap pods and self-help apps. Projections suggest this market will exceed $100 billion by 2032. And yet burnout is worse than ever. Post-pandemic, 77% of U.S. employees report experiencing workplace stress, according to the American Psychological Association, and 82% say theyre at risk of burnout. Experts blame collaboration overload, digital fatigue, and blurred work-life boundaries. Even artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT, intended to streamline work, can amplify pressure by raising expectations for speed and output. This disconnect exposes a hard truth: More wellness spending doesnt mean better employee well-being. If anything, it masks the root of the problem. The Corporate Wellness Paradox The more companies invest in wellness, the worse employees seem to feel. Is wellness spending the cause of burnout? Probably not. But its clearly not preventing it either. So why are both rising in tandem? 1. Wellness as a deflection, not a solution. The 10 most dangerous words in business: Burnout is an organizational problem that needs an organizational solution. Too often, companies outsource that responsibilityhanding out mindfulness apps rather than asking why employees need them in the first place. Like blaming the canary instead of clearing the toxic mine, we focus on individual resilience instead of fixing the system. 2. Perks that miss the point. Wellness perks like yoga sessions sound good, but they dont address whats actually broken: unsustainable workloads, poor management, lack of autonomy, and toxic cultures. These programs treat symptoms, not causes. Its like handing out umbrellas in a flood and calling it disaster relief. 3. Branding over behavior. Wellness is often treated as a recruitment assetfront and center in job postings and Mental Health Awareness Month campaigns, but rarely integrated into how work actually gets done. If wellness isnt embedded in deadlines, resourcing, and manager training, it wont move the needle. The result? While 81% of employers say their well-being programs are effective, 61% of employees disagree. That gap signals a deeper issue: performative wellness that looks good on paper but fails in practice. 4. The illusion of progress. Companies often equate the presence of wellness programs with progress. But few measure what matters: burnout rates, psychological safety, and team performance. When wellness becomes symbolic, it can obscure the deeper structural problems driving stress. How Companies Can Improve Their Workplace Wellness Programs If traditional wellness programs arent solving the problem, what will? Start by shifting from symbolic gestures to structural change. The most effective strategies dont focus on fixing individualsthey fix the systems creating burnout in the first place. Here are five ways to start. 1. Measure what matters. Dont confuse participation with impact. Its one thing to track completion rates; its another to measure real behavioral outcomes. Metrics like absenteeism, turnover, psychological safety, and employee net promoter scores offer a far clearer picture of employee well-being than satisfaction surveys ever could. 2. Ask better, validated questions. Move beyond generic surveys. Use research-backed questions from sources like Mental Health America, having employees rate statements such as: My work stress affects my mental health. My manager provides emotional support to help me manage my stress. These surveys reveal insights about workload, leadership, and organizational culturethree of the strongest predictors of workplace mental health. 3. Rethink ROI. The best wellness investments arent flashytheyre foundational. Fair compensation, job security, schedule flexibility, and a culture of respect arent perks; theyre prerequisites for a healthy, high-performing workplaceand exactly what workers want. These elements do more to buffer against chronic stress than any app or wellness challenge ever could. 4. Train managers as mental health allies. People dont leave jobsthey leave bad bosses. Train leaders to recognize burnout, normalize open conversations, and model healthy boundaries. Research shows managers influence employee mental health more than therapists. Thats a leadership skill companies cant afford to ignore. 5. Design work differently. Instead of pushing employees to build resilience, ask how your organization might reduce the need for it. Redesign roles, expectations, and collaboration norms to create environments in which people dont have to constantly recover from their jobs. We Dont Need More Wellness ProgramsWe Need Better Workplaces If companies frame wellness as a benefit instead of a responsibility, theyll keep spending billions while burnout grows. The real opportunity isnt in launching the next app or hosting another webinar. Its in rethinking how we design work itself.
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Kelly Krasner was always interested in healthcare, but losing both parents to cancer when she was 24 reinforced what she thought would be a lifelong calling. After spending 13 years helping hospitals integrate more cancer screening and diagnosis technologies as a radiology sales and marketing director, Krasner spent six more working at various healthcare technology startups. When her company downsized and she lost her job in 2023, however, Krasner said it felt nearly impossible to get back into the industry. I was applying and applying, and unfortunatelyperhaps because of my age, my status, or people thinking I had to have a high title or a high incomeI just wasn’t getting the roles, she says. I was okay with less money. I wasn’t really interested in the title. I was just interested in making a difference. After nearly a year searching for a role in the industry in which she had spent almost two decades, Krasner, who had juggled small side ventures throughout her career, decided to try something completely different. I had been thinking about [launching a] mowing company for a while. I just never really thought it would be something I would do, says Krasner, who founded SeaWeeds Mow Co. in her coastal community near Wilmington, North Carolina, in early 2024. We offer affordable lawn care, painting, and interior care, and always give back to our community. We adopt sea turtles that have been rescued from injury or illness and help the sea turtle hospital take care of them. Though the new business doesnt pay nearly as much as her previous roles, Krasner says its proven more gratifying in other ways. I really love being outside. I love growing it with my family; the people I’ve met have just been incredible, she says. It’s probably the most rewarding thing I’ve done. Why blue-collar roles are booming A four-year degree and desk job was long considered the most direct path to stable employment with strong career and wage-growth potential. But recent shifts in the U.S. workforce are causing some people, like Krasner, to question whether that remains true. In fact, surveys have found interest in blue-collar work is growing, especially among young Americans, thanks to strong demand for talent and the skyrocketing cost of a four-year degree. As job opportunities, career mobility, and wage-growth opportunities slow among knowledge worker roles, other sectorsespecially those that were hardest hit during the pandemic, like hospitality, food services, and healthcareare experiencing historic staffing shortages, causing many to offer more aggressive salary increases. According to a 2024 report by McKinsey Global Institute, advanced economies like the United States have been facing the tightest labor market in nearly two decades, but historically high staffing shortages have persisted in certain key sectors. It was much more the physical and manual type of work that had shown increases in vacancies, says McKinsey Global Institute Partner Anu Madgavkar, who coauthored the report. Some of the sectors facing the largest staffing gaps, according to Madgavkar, include construction, manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, and hands-on healthcare roles like home health aides. One of the driving forces behind the shortage is Americas aging population, which is increasing the demand for (and reducing the supply of) workers in physically demanding roles. Older people spend a lot more on healthcare services, on housing and utilitiesespecially in the U.S., where a large percentage actually own their homes, and many take on home improvements [in retirement]and they need those physical skills, Madgavkar says. On the supply side of the story, you have fewer younger able-bodied people, and younger people also have higher rates of college enrollment, as more aspire to be in white-collar jobs than their parents. The white-collar recession The growing demand for workers in physically intensive professions has coincided with a recent stagnation in job opportunities in the knowledge economy. Economic uncertainty, AI fears, and a deterioration in the pay premium that previously came with switching jobs has inspired more Americans to hang onto their jobs for longer, especially in knowledge economy roles, in what is sometimes referred to as the Big Stay. Analyst and author Josh Bersin instead labels it a white-collar recession. Most of the white-collar workers I talk to are sticking with their jobs because they’re afraid of leaving, he says. And then when I talk to employers, there’s this massive, almost unanimous trend towards finding AI tools that can reduce the number of people they need to hire. Bersin points to numerous studies that show that job growth opportunities for those with a four-year degree are stalling, while IT spendingespecially on generative AI toolsis increasing. I think a lot of the slowdown in hiring is just budget shifting towards automation, he says. Not necessarily replacing every job . . . but instead of hiring three more people, we should hire two more people, or one more personand invest in this new tool. Whether the technology is truly capable of replacing knowledge workers at this early stage is still up for debate, but Bersin says vendors are advertising their AI solutions as productivity enhancements, inspiring some employers to adjust their payroll budgets accordingly. In contrast, he says, you look at nurses, you look at truck drivers, you look at blue-collar workers, you look at restaurant workers, you look at hospitality workerstheres not enough of them, he says. While technology is still displacing workers in manufacturing, construction, and other labor-intensive industries, Bersin says technology-driven workforce reductions in those sectors likely peaked years ago. That hasn’t happened in white-collar work yet, so we’re in the painful stage of companies figuring out what this is going to look like, and that hurts when you’re the one in the job that they don’t need anymore, he adds. We’ve sort of flipped the narrative in the job market; the people that are the most nervous are the people that are more educated and more administrative in their roles, and the operational peoplethe hands-on jobs, the more hourly workare the ones that are [in demand]. Does it really pay toswitch collars? While increases to hourly earnings for more educated workers have remained relatively flat since the pandemic, those in more manual roles have experienced historic growth, according to a recent study by the Economic Policy Institute. Thats especially true among workers at the lowest end of the wage spectrum, Black workers and less educated workers. According to the study, hourly wages for the bottom 10% of earners grew 15.3% between 2019 and 2024, after that same cohort saw their wages shrink by 2.1% in the five years between 2007 and 2012. By comparison, workers at the highest end of the salary spectrum saw a more modest 6.8% pay bump between 2019 and 2024, while those in 50th to 80th percentiles saw their earnings grow less than 5%, once adjusted for inflation. Wage growth for workers with lower levels of educational attainment has actually been much faster over the most recent period than it has for much of the prior 40 years, says Economic Policy Institute senior economist Elise Gould, who coauthored the report. The wage growth for somebody with a bachelor’s degree or more, that’s been pretty consistently solid for a long time. Its just most recently been eclipsed. While wages are rising faster among less educated workers, Gould emphasizes that there is still a significant pay gap between those with and without a four-year degree. Those without the credential earn an average of roughly $20 per hour, while those with a bachelors degree or higher average $37 per hour. Since 2019, both groups have seen average hourly wages increase by roughly an inflation-adjusted $1 per hour; however, that dollar represents a much more significant percentage increase for those earning less. That slower wage growth [among higher earners] could have also been because there were some other benefits white-collar workers were able to negotiate in lieu of faster wage growth, like working from home, Gould says. Not just a paycheck Workers with less educational attainment and in more manual roles may be experiencing greater demand, more career stability, and faster wage growth, but the data suggests knowledge workers are still commanding significantly higher salaries. At the same time, career instability, AI anxiety, and relatively stagnant wages have made knowledge work more precarious than it has been in generations, leading somelike Krasnerto seek more stable and potentially fulfilling opportunities doing more manual work. It’s not as much of a fight for my life against AI out there in the field, she says. While it can mow lawns, believe it or not, its not something Im afraid to lose my job to at this point. Though her career pivot has required some lifestyle adjustments, Krasner says the transition has also inspired a different outlook on work and the role it plays in her life. Once you get back to being human again and feeling the sunshine and the fresh air and being tired at night from doing something that actually matters, it really does change your perspective, she says. Its not easythis [is] a major financial change for me . . . but when I am done at the end of the day, I’ve never been happier.
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