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Three months ago, I fired up ChatGPT and asked it to design a highly aggressive, short-term investment portfolio, selecting five stocks that were most likely to make me fabulously wealthy in six months time. Then, I threw good sense to the wind, transferred $500 of my actual money into a Robinhood account, and bought the stocks that ChatGPT had pitched. Since then, its been a wild ride. My portfolio has flown to new heights, giving me serious FOMO about the fact that I didnt put all my money into ChatGPTs picks. Then, it singed its wings, falling Icarus-style to lows that had me almost ready to bail on the whole thing and redirect the charred remains of my money to the kind of boring stuff (car payments, dental work) that I probably should have used it for in the first place. Were halfway through my six-month experiment. Lets dig deeper into how things have gone. First, a disclaimer. Nothing here should be considered investment advice. As youll see, stocks picked by chatbots are incredibly volatile, and theres a solid chance I could lose most of my investment. Always consult a professional before making your own financial decisions. A Crazy Strong Start When I asked ChatGPT to pick a portfolio of five high-growth stocks back in September, it spent almost 10 minutes doing research before returning its picks. The five it chose were Palantir, AppLovin, MicroStrategy, Agios Pharmaceuticals, and Hut 8. The bot felt that Palantir and AppLovin had strong, AI-powered businesses that would continue to dominate their markets and grow. Agios Pharma, the bot reported, was awaiting the results of an FDA trial for a new drug. If the trial was successful, ChatGPT felt its value would soar. And finally, Hut 8 and MicroStrategy were essentially leveraged Bitcoin plays. Both companies held a lot of Bitcoins on their balance sheets, and so their valuations should swing along with the value of those coinsonly on steroids, because of the effects of leverage. I hadnt heard of many of those companies. Still, I decided to blindly trust ChatGPTs advice and sink $500 into them, dividing the money evenly across ChatGPTs picks as it suggested. At first, things went well enough. In the first three weeks of my experiment, my portfolio climbed by about 12%. That was promising. Then, all of a sudden, things started going very well. In October, my portfolio took off. Each morning when I opened the Robinhood app, I was greeted by a delightful swirl of green numbers, climbing ever higher. By the beginning of November, my portfolio was worth $652a gain of almost 1/3 in just two months time. Extrapolating that out to the full year, my gains would have been 180%+ if the momentum continued. And at the time, it wasnt just continuing. It was accelerating. I started quietly wondering whether I had been too cautious with this experiment. Maybe I should have put $1,000 into ChatGPTs picks instead of $500. Maybe I should take out a second mortgage and put that money into the bots picks, too. Or maybe I had discovered a whole new way of investing, and soon every quant fund would be knocking down my door, offering me a $900,000 per year salary (before bonus, of course) to teach them my Thomas Smith AI Stock Investing Method. And an Equally Crazy Fall Then, all of a sudden, everything went horribly wrong. Just as October had been a sea of green, November was nothing but blood-red numbers each time I fired up Robinhood. By the 20th of the month, my portfolio had plummeted from its peak of $652 to only $451. Thats a 30% decline in about 3 weeksa spectacular fall. It was also the first time I was genuinely in the red, and had actually lost my own money (on paper, anyway) through my AI investing experiment. And the losses seemed to be piling on, accelerating just as fast as the gains had done before. That was unsettling, and not something I relished explaining to my accountant at the end of next tax year. I could imagine the conversation: So Tom, you have a $500 loss attributed to Misc Investments here. Tell me about that. Well, I asked ChatGPT to invest money for me, and then blindly followed its exact recommendations. And then I didnt cut my losses when it started going poorly, because I was afraid my readers would yell at me. **long pause** I see How Will it All End? As I write this in early December, my portfolio has stabilized a bit, and Im back in the black, with a total gain of $14. Theres still three months left in my experiment, so its possible that my portfolio will rise from the ashes and fly again. But Lambo money is looking increasingly unlikely. What went wrong? On a basic level, ChatGPTs picks were bad. Bitcoins value has plummeted over the last few months, and the bots portfolio isby designvery exposed to Bitcoin. ChatGPT also bet on Agios Pharma getting positive results from its clinical trials. In fact, those results were mixed. The stock duly dropped. AppLovin was likewise doing great, until the SEC launched a probe into its data gathering practices. Bad picks arent necessarily the real problem, though. Human investment managers mis-call the market or make bad picks all the time. Risk is part of investing. The real issue is how confidently ChatGPT backed up its picks with bold, assertive language. Overall, the portfolio aims for explosive upside rather than stability. Each stock has recent momentum o an upcoming catalyst, so this mix could significantly outperform if trends continue, the bot told me when it selected its portfolio. The whole thing was tilted for maximal growth the bot assured me, bolded text and all. About Agios, it said A positive FDA outcome or even renewed optimism could spark a significant rally, and about MicroStrategy it insisted Analysts project that a BTC surge to $150K could yield ~6570% stock gains. Even its disclaimer (Actual outcomes depend on market moves but all are supported by the cited fundamental and market trends.) isnt really a disclaimer. The bot essentially interrupts itself mid-sentence to further reassure me that its making good choices, and invalidate any sense of caution it may have inadvertently introduced. Chatbots overconfidence is a well-documented issue. In many cases, the certainty with which bots deliver their responses is annoying, but not damaging. ChatGPT recently swore to one of my family members that Philadelphias 44 Bus doesnt run on weekends. It was Saturday. As it was telling her this, the bus passed by on the street outside. That makes for a funny story about bots failability. But when chatbots are performing mission-critical functions related to our health and money, their baked-in overconfidence is way riskier. I knew what I was getting myself into with my investing experiment. But a naive investor might not read a chatbots stock advice critically. Believing its confident language, they could lose serious money by trusting the bot too much. As for me, Ive still got my $500 invested, for better or worse. Perhaps ChatGPT will ultimately prove prescient, and a late-stage Bitcoin rally will save my dreams of unbridled wealth. Or, maybe the rest of my half-grand will evaporate. In another three months, Ill know!
Category:
E-Commerce
Inc.com columnist Alison Green answers questions about workplace and management issueseverything from how to deal with a micromanaging boss to how to talk to someone on your team about body odor. Heres a roundup of answers to three questions from readers. 1. Ive fired my new employee before I recently took a new job in my same industry and city. In my new role, Ill have a team of eight reporting to me in various capacities and functions. During the interview process, I got a brief read-out on the team and a high-level talent assessment. Nothing stood out as an issue. On my first day, I met the team reporting to me. One of the people on the team is someone who worked for me before and whom I terminated for cause because of performance at my previous company. What do I communicate to my management team or HR about this situation? It feels weird to say nothing because ultimately this could be a management issueIm sure this employee doesnt feel great about the situation. On the other hand, I dont want to risk harming this persons reputation at this company if they are doing a good job so far. This person is pretty new here too, and my impression is they are either doing a better job in this role or management has not yet identified an issue with their performance. Green responds: Have you talked to the employee yet? Thats important because they are undoubtedly really uncomfortable, if not outright panicking. Ideally, youd tell them that youre happy to be working with them again, youve heard good things about the work theyve been doing (if thats true), and while you know your last time working together didnt go the way either of you wanted, this is a different situation and, as far youre concerned, both of you are starting fresh. I do think youre right that you need to mention it to your management team or HR. Its unfortunate, because this person is entitled to a fresh start without the firing following them to a different job, but its relevant not as a predictor of the persons work now, but because it could affect the dynamic between the two of you, and either of you could struggle not to interpret things through that old lens. You can keep it very briefI managed Jane at a previous company, and unfortunately the fit wasnt right and we ended up parting ways. Im very willing to start fresh with her and Im hopeful the role shes in could be a great match, but I wanted to flag the prior work relationship. Also, if its been a while since you worked together, stress that, too. 2. Why do people respond to emails with a phone call? Whats the etiquette on responding to people youve emailed who respond with a phone call? I understand there are times when a phone call is necessary. Ive been getting dozens of phone calls (after sending out a ton of emails on a certain work issue) and they all ask me to call them back. Im just frustrated because if I email someone, its because I dont want to talk on the phone. And the question is usually easily answered via email. Whats the best way to respond? Green responds: I get being annoyed, but its not always up to youand sometimes it makes sense. Sometimes people will call you back because they thinkoften rightlythat itll be faster. They might not be sure about the meaning of your email and they want to clarify before responding, and figure theyll just jump on the phone rather than going back and forth. Or their answer might take a long time to write out but be easier to deliver over the phone. Or they just prefer the phone, just as you prefer email. And not everyone feels they communicate as well in writing as they do out loud. For an email fan, this can be annoying. When you like email, it feels efficient and convenient and respectful of everyones time. Plus, sometimes its helpful to have a written record of what was discussed as a reference you can look back at later if needed. And if youre having an especially busy day or suspect a call will be 30 minutes when it should be five, it might be fine to let the call go to voicemail, and then email later with, Got your voicemail. Im in back-to-back meetings and will be hard to reach todayany chance email will work? Maybe it will, and theyll tell you if it wont. But save that for when you really need itbecause while you get to have your preferences, they get to have theirs, too. 3. Setting boundaries on requests for help from your significant others network I am engaged to a wonderful person. We both work in the same field, though for different organizations. We are working to create healthy boundaries between our personal and professional lives and it is important to both of us that we are able to pursue careers independently. My organization is bigger and engages in some grant-making activities. A coworker of my fiancés recently reached out to me for more information on how their organization could acquire funding. I directed her to publicly available resources, but she responded seeking a personal introduction to our grant officer. This made me uncomfortable; Im happy to connect anyone who asks to see public information, but it felt like she was leveraging my personal relationship to gain access. I know the importnce of networking and personal connections, but I have no professional relationship with this person and weve met only once in passing. My fiancé and I discussed the need for a policy on how to deal with these kinds of inquiries as we see this being a recurring issue as we move forward in our careers. I would love advice on how to navigate these kinds of requests. Green responds: The way you handled it sounds just fine. When she asked for an introduction to the grant officer, you could have said, Oh, we get such a high volume of interest in funding that we ask all grant applicants to follow the process listed on our website. And if she still pushed: Im sorry I cant help. Were really rigorous about asking everyone to use the process on our website so that everyone is treated the same. Thanks for understanding! In other words, not so different from how youd probably handle it if your fiancé werent in the picture. Explain what the person should do, and then reiterate that if necessary. Be warm and friendly, but hold firm on what you are and arent willing or able to do. My answer would be different if the person had been requesting something different. If she were asking for something like an informal chat about moving into your fieldas opposed to this kind of special treatmentId encourage you to consider that, like you presumably would consider other similar requests that came through a mutual contact. Want to submit a question of your own? Send it to alison@askamanager.org. Alison Green This article originally appeared on Fast Companys sister publication, Inc. Inc. is the voice of the American entrepreneur. We inspire, inform, and document the most fascinating people in business: the risk-takers, the innovators, and the ultra-driven go-getters that represent the most dynamic force in the American economy.
Category:
E-Commerce
Netflix’s decision to quietly remove the ability to cast content from its mobile apps to smart TVs and streaming devices has caused a bit of an uproar on social media. The complaints are the usual ones you see when a company removes a feature. Some blame greed. Some are upset their method of end-running subscription sharing has been shut down. Some just jump on the opportunity to complain about Netflix. But frequent travelers could have a legitimate grievance about the company’s decision to largely end casting. The change was enacted without warning and without fanfare in November, with some of the earliest complaints from users coming on Nov. 10. Netflix has since changed the help page on its Website to say it no longer supports casting shows from a mobile device to most TVs and TV-streaming devices.” It follows a 2019 decision by the company to remove support for Apple’s AirPlay feature. Netflix says the casting feature was rarely used by subscribers. But many business and other frequent travelers have come to depend on casting to watch Netflix on hotel TVs instead of their phone’s screen. The days of free HBO being a sufficient draw to attract travelers are long gone. Today’s hotel visitor wants to be able to connect to their streaming service of choice while they’re on the road. (Missing a screening of a movie you’ve seen before isn’t a big deal. Missing the new Stranger Things and risking spoilers for the rest of your trip can be.) Hotels, meanwhile, encourage guests to use streaming services, as it puts the cost burden of entertainment programming on the traveler, helping the chain cut expenses. There’s no universal way to watch streaming services in your hotel room. Some chains let you connect your laptop to your in-room TV, though you’ll need to remember to pack an extra HDMI cable to take advantage of this. Some offer apps directly on the television, letting you scan a QR code to verify the connection on your phone, then access your streaming service. Despite protections by those hotel chains (all login information is wiped at user checkout, something the hotels are contractually obligated to do by the streaming services), many people are still hesitant to link their personal accounts to a public television. That leaves casting. Many hotels prefer this option, says Richard Leonarz, director of product management for Hospitality Television at Samsung, as it takes the responsibility of clearing user credentials off of their shoulders. (Once the guest and their phone are out of range of the TV, the casting ends.) Casting is also a strong preference for visitors to Airbnb and Vrbo destinations, as owners of those facilities often don’t wipe the credentials of previous guests. International travelers also frequently prefer a casting option, as it lets them access services that might not be available in the U.S. or a built-in option on a hotel Smart TV. That said, casting isn’t a perfect solution for hotel visitors. It requires the proper software to be installed on the in-room TV (usually Chromecast) and there needs to be a system in place to ensure a guest’s cast goes to their own TV, not one in the room next door. Netflix, apparently, hasn’t completely done away with casting. Some older Chromecast devices and TVs that support Google Cast are still able to utilize the technology. That’s only available to subscribers who pay for an ad-free plan, though. Ad-supported plans are unable to cast no matter where they’re attempting to do so.
Category:
E-Commerce
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