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As summer nears and states like Texas are already facing extreme heat, tariffs are about to make cooling your home a lot more expensiveand experts dont expect prices to come down any time soon. The U.S. heating and cooling industry is highly dependent on overseas manufacturers, both for fully assembled units like air conditioners, heat pumps, and HVACs, and for the component parts used to build them. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, the U.S. imported more than $15 billion in AC units last year, mainly from Mexico and China. But according to Aydin Mehr, general manager of the HVAC contractor UniColorado, overseas manufacturers essentially halted production on new units when President Trump announced his tariff plans back in early April, leaving U.S. distributors with an extremely limited supply of heating and cooling appliances. Last week, the Trump administration paused its 145% tariff on China and replaced it with a 30% tariff in the meantime. Now, contractors are reeling from the whiplash of an uncertain manufacturing outlook and dealing with higher expenses across the board. Mehr says consumers can expect to face both delays and substantially higher prices on AC units and heat pumps this summer. The news comes as a record-breaking heatwave has already hit Texas and some parts of the Southwest, leaving the rest of the nation gearing up for a summer of extreme heat. Why is my AC getting more expensive? From a supply chain perspective, Mehr says, there are a few reasons why the heating and cooling industry has been hit particularly hard by the Trump tariffs. First, he says, around 60% to 70% of completed AC, HVAC, and heat pumps are imported to the U.S. Second, while there are a few manufacturers that do assemble AC units in the U.S., Mehr explains those plants still overwhelmingly rely on component parts shipped from China. And third, he describes the industry as very similar to car manufacturers, because instead of stockpiling units, distributors anticipate demand based on the season and build their inventories around that. In the case of an unexpected situation like new tariffs, there are no warehouses full of appliances that can be ready to ship. When the 145% [tariffs on China] first hit in April, manufacturers stopped producing and distributors stopped importing, Mehr says. No one was importing anything from China. No one was really trying to bypass it. Everyone just stopped to see what would happen. So because of that, there’s less units. Tariffs on Chinese imports may have dropped, but the 30% tariff still represents a major markup in an industry that relies heavily on Chinese goods, on top of the fact that distributors are working with a majorly diminished supply. Today, Mehr says, essentially all of the components that go into building an AC unit are more expensive, including steel, sheet metal, and refrigerant. He predicts that, in order to avoid excessive sticker shock, American distributors will slowly increase their prices to offset higher expenses, so that, by the hotter summer months, the full weight of the tariffs will be borne by the end customer. My expectation is that prices between now and the end of September will increase at least 10% to 15% at a minimum, on everything, Mehr says. So, if a repair costs 300 bucks today, it will probably cost 320 by then. In addition to increased prices on both cooling appliances and associated repairs, Mehr says, there will likely be fewer options for customers to choose from. Maybe you could pick from five things today, but probably in a month and a half, you can pick from two or three, Mehr says. He adds that its possible the situation might improve by the late summer, when demand dies down, but in the meantime, most distributors dont have much stock to offer. It’s not a great situation, because the industry isn’t really made to have tariffs announced on Twitter: One day on, one day off, one day 145%, the next day 30%it’s not really built to overcome that at all. Bad news for a hot summer This isnt the first time that the heating and cooling industry has been impacted by tariffs. Back in 2019, President Trump imposed a 10% to 25% tariff on Chinese imports, which had a similar ripple effect across the supply chaina situation that was only exacerbated by the pandemic. Since then, though, prices have only continued to rise rather than returning to pre-2019 levels. Mehr expects the hikes brought on by this most recent round of tariffs to become the new normal for distributors. If someone has had an upgrade or major repair in mind, they should act on it soon, because even if tariffs are eased, all of these existing price increases are not going away, Mehr says. Being in this industry, I have never seen prices of anything go back down. When manufacturers raise it, it rises forever. The price jumps come as climate change continues to drive extreme summer temperatures. Last summer, people around the world experienced 41 extra days of dangerous heat due to climate change, a trend that was both dangerous and expensive, given the mounting electricity bills needed to stay cool. And now, Texas is already experiencing a heat wave that has seen temperatures rise above 100 degrees in mid-May, causing electricity use to surge to a new May record of over 78,000 megawatts, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. Per a recent study from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, residential electricity costs are forecast to average $784 this summer, up 6.2% since last year. Paired with rising appliance costs and maintenance fees, that means AC could become prohibitively expensive for many Americans. And this isn’t just uncomfortable: It can be deadly. Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the U.S., killing more people than hurricanes, floods, and tornados. It can also exacerbate health conditions, impact people’s sleep, and contribute to cognitive issues.
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E-Commerce
To Deb Cloutier, president and founder of the sustainability firm RE Tech Advisors, the news that the Trump administration is planning to get rid of Energy Star simply didn’t make sense. Trumps claims that he wants to reduce Americans energy bills is “completely at odds with this move to scrap the program that certifies energy efficient appliances. And she sees no viable way for private companies or nonprofits to fill this gap. She would know what it takes: Cloutier is one of the original designers of the program. Energy Star officially launched in 1992, under President George H. Bush. Cloutier helped shape the programs focus on building efficiency, and then worked as a consultant every year since its launch. In the past 30 years, Energy Star has exceeded all expectations, Cloutier says: It saves consumers more than $40 billion every year on their bills, and helps certified buildings use 35% less energy, which means lower operating costs. Energy Star is voluntary, not mandatory Energy Star was specifically intended to be a voluntary, nonregulatory way of getting businesses to adopt and understand energy efficiency. The program doesn’t force businesses or building owners to participate. And yet more than 16,000 companies and organizations dofrom appliance manufacturers to school districts. Dozens of voluntary programs exist today, but Energy Star was the seminal first program that proved that businesses working in concert with government in a collaborative fashion could learn from one another, and develop resources that would not be brought to market by the businesses on their own, Cloutier says. It has been a model for other public-private partnerships since, some even directly taking Energy Star’s tools: Canada uses Energy Stars buildings portfolio manager for how it rates and ranks its own buildings. Businesses dont often want to be the first to adopt something new like energy efficiency metrics; it’s a risk, and not always clear how the market will respond. But Energy Star was able to convene industry leaders together so multiple businesses could adopt these standards at once. Then, it started recognizing the top 25% most efficient products, buildings, and manufacturers. It really helped spark that competitive nature of businesses to try and set goals to have X percent of their portfolio that has energy Star certification, Cloutier says. An impartial agency, and a recognizable symbol Because Energy Star is a government program, it provides an impartial scoring metric for efficiency, based on rigorous scientific research. Energy Stars iconic blue label is also easily recognizable by consumers: According to the program, nearly 90% of American households recognize the symbol. Without one symbol from a trusted, third-party source, manufacturers or retailers may put their own efficiency labels on products, which would make for a confusing and crowded landscape for consumers. It also wouldnt be clear if those labels are consistent in what they measure or reward, or who’s verifying those claims. And if a nonprofit were to take over Energy Stars role, it’s unlikely that it could cover the same array of industriesretail, manufacturing, residential, schools, and state and local governmentsthat the federal government does. It would be a tall order to find something that replicates the federal government’s impartiality and breadth, Cloutier says. Energy Star simplifies the efficiency process The federal government is in a unique position to have the national energy data, the research from national laboratories, and the industry expertise that underpin Energy Stars tools and standards. The program draws from other government agencies like the Energy Information Administration, and it incorporates state and local regulations around emissions caps and what information buildings must disclose around their energy consumption. If you own and operate buildings in more than one state or multinational jurisdictions, its already a very complex compliant landscape, Cloutier says. But Energy Star helps simplify the process through things like its portfolio manager software tool, which allows entities to enter their buildings energy consumption and receive a score between 1 and 100, and to track their improvement over time. The private sector not only would struggle to access all the national energy data and laboratory research crucial for Energy Star, it would also face challenges from businesses themselves. I think most entities would be hesitant to give what they would consider to be confidential business information around energy usage to a third party, Cloutier says. Private businesses likely couldnt carry out Energy Star at a large scale either. Its portfolio manager is used by more than 280,000 properties. For a private business to fund such an expansive, far-reaching tool, it would likely have to charge for it, Cloutier sayswhich would burden American businesses, buildings, and families directly. As a government program, Energy Star is incredibly cost-effective: For every federal dollar invested, it delivers a return of $350. When you look at the very small budget to run Energy Star, I would say it’s sort of the little engine that could in terms of its results,” she says. The program supports more than 750,000 U.S. jobs, and Americans purchase 300 million Energy Star-certified products a year, worth $100 billion in market value. Energy efficiency benefits everyone Energy Star has long had bipartisan support, and for good reason. Making products and buildings more efficient helps the entire countrynot only by lowering peoples energy bills, but by putting less pressure on the national energy grid. That means less blackouts and brownouts, too. The more we can help drive down the amount of energy used to live, work, and play in buildings, that helps produce more bandwidth on the grid, Cloutier says. U.S. energy demand is only growing, especially with more data centers to support AI and cloud services, which will also likely raise energy prices for consumers. Without Energy Star, Americans might be more likely to choose the cheapest option at the appliance store, not realizing that doing so will actually increase their energy bills over time. Its not easy, without a third-party label like Energy Star, to translate that trade-off in purchase price versus long-term savings. But by having the Energy Star product, consumers know that item inherently saves energy; Energy Star also details the annual energy use of a productand how much that use compares to the federal standard. Consumers can even search for items like dishwashers and the Energy Star website will sort them by energy use. Losing Energy Star also means buildings might lag on efficiency, in part because the process to meet efficiency standards and implement energy-saving tools will be a more difficult undertaking. Building operators may then pass those increased utility costs on to residents, in the case of apartment buildings, or customers, in the case of hotels. Cloutier has seen numerous examples of how aligning with Energy Star standards has helped building operators save money; thousands of school districts, she says, have saved on operating costs that can then make more resources available for teachers. And Energy Star is authorized by Congress, which means it can’t legally be ended in this fiscal year. What happens after that isn’t clear, but Energy Star’s benefits are. During his first term, Trump tried to end the program but faced strong opposition, and Energy Star survived. “I am highly encouraging our clients and peers in the industry,” Cloutier says, “. . . to defend the value of Energy Star again.”
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E-Commerce
In recent months, the New York City subway system has seen a string of shocking and deadly incidents of violence, including several passengers who have been shoved from the platform into the paths of moving trains. A recent report finds that misdemeanor and felony assaults within the subway system have tripled since 2009. For everyday riders and visitors alike, there is now a lurking fear that their next trip on the subway could be dangerous. Many, including the governor of New York, are seeking solutions, which range from adding more police presence to increasing surveillance to installing more lighting to combatting fare evasion. But there’s another approach that could go a long way to improving security and safety in the subway system. Through specific and targeted design interventions, the subway system itself could be retrofitted to reduce violent crime. This is one of the conclusions of What To Do (and Not To Do) About Subway Safety, a new set of policy recommendations from the urban policy journal Vital City. Based on input and research from criminologists, behavioral scientists, transit experts, and policy wonks, the recommendations include focusing on mental health and substance abuse among users of the system, increasing access to social workers, and using police forces more strategically. [Image: courtesy WXY] Claire Weisz, cofounder of the architecture and design studio WXY, contributed to the report with ideas for design interventions that could increase a sense of security and comfort for subway riders. These design ideas include improving sight lines within the system’s underground stations, increasing visibility between passengers, and reducing dead ends and other areas that can isolate people. Rather than calling for a wide scale and expensive investment in safety infrastructure like Japanese-style platform barriers, the design ideas proposed here are lower lift interventions. The standout design idea from Weisz and WXY is the addition of highly reflective surfaces throughout subway stations. Lining ceilings, walls, and even the areas right above the edge of the platform, these shiny surfaces passively increase visibility, spatial awareness, and navigation within the sometimes circuitous underground world of a subway station. A current interior (left) and a render of proposed revisions (right) [Images: courtesy WXY] “Mirrors or mirror-like surfaces, which could be stainless steel, in the right places can actually help people see around columns, see down hallways, see around corners, but also get a sense that I’m getting closer towards an exit, or I’m getting farther away, or here’s where a platform is,” Weisz says. “Right now, there isn’t kind of intuitive wayfinding.” [Image: courtesy WXY] Reflective surfaces can also increase a sense of security. Directly influenced by the violent shoving incidents that have been happening in recent months, the subway design interventions feature a curved reflective surface just overhead of the tracks, called a soffit. This gives people standing and waiting for trains the ability to catch glimpses of their surroundings without having to look behind their backs. “When you’re standing and waiting for the subway, you can see other people,” Weisz says. The soffit also visually tightens the station interior, making it feel more compact. “It closes down the space between the platform and the third rail on the tracks, so that you’re not as open to the whole track.” [Image: courtesy WXY] The idea behind these reflective surfaces comes from the world of hotel design, Weisz says. Hotel hallways and elevators are commonly outfitted with mirrors that let people see themselves but also, perhaps subconsciously, understand that they are also going to be seen by others in this public place. It’s a bit of social engineering informed by behavioral science that encourages more self-awareness and courteous behavior. The surfaces become like eyes on the platform. [Image: courtesy WXY] Adding these reflective surfaces could be a form of tactical design, improving conditions in subway stations without the need for a drastic and expensive redesign. But for a transit system with nearly 500 subway stationsand almost every one having a unique designmaking widespread improvements will not be easy. “Everything’s expensive, but I do think a couple of pilots in stations that are complex would go a long way,” Weisz says. “My hope is some of these discussions are going to bring money forth from philanthropy or from academia to do a couple of pilots that really get monitored and recorded to find out if this is changing how people feel in these spaces as they move through the subway.” Weisz acknowledges that while the shoving attacks that have been reported in the subway system are rare, they’ve created outsized impacts on riders’ perceptions of safety within subway stations. To maintain the system’s essential role in the functioning of the city, she argues, those perceptions of safety must be improved. “Good design allows people to behave in a way that optimizes the use of public space in the system,” she says.
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E-Commerce
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