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Just over a month ago, economists were so frightened of a potential recession they refused to call it by its name. The dreaded R word kept the financial punditry quaking in their boots on news showswhich feels a bit quaint now that were seeing signs of a possible stagflation on the horizon. Despite sounding like Yosemite Sams reaction to setting his drawers on fire, stagflation is just about the worst possible economic condition. As a portmanteau of stagnant and inflation, this kind of recession hits us with the triple threat of sluggish economic growth, rising inflation, and high unemployment rates. Until stagflation hit the United States in the 1970s, many economists did not believe this kind of economic crisis was possible. Since recovering from the 1970s-era stagflation, the U.S. has never experienced (or come close to experiencing) another boutalthough stagflation in the Japanese economy in the 1990s proved that this phenomenon is not unique to America. To better understand what stagflation is, how it develops, and what we can do to protect our finances, I spoke to Kevin Matthews II, former financial adviser and founder of the financial education firm BuildingBread. Drawing on his economics degree from Hampton University and his experience teaching over 400,000 investors, Matthews has been raising the alarm about possible stagflation since March. Heres what he shared. Recession vs. stagflation While no one jumps for joy over a recession, anyone older than the age of 20 has likely lived through more than one. Recessions are relatively common and follow a predictable pattern. According to Kiplinger, since the end of WWII, the U.S. economy has experienced a recession about once every 6.5 years, with an average recovery time of 11.1 months. This means that economists, despite their apparent terror about mentioning the word, understand recessions. We’ve gone through recessions before, Matthews says. We have answers to recessions. Stagflation, on the other hand, isnt normal. The U.S. economy is facing the first significant threat of stagflation since the 1970s. Unfortunately, stagflation does not have a clear answer, according to Matthews. Its worse than a recession. This concern was echoed by economist Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. In a speech on April 15, 2025, Posen forecast that the U.S. economy has a 65% chance of entering a recession. But the worse news is that the situation could become a stagflationary recession, which he believes the Federal Reserve is unprepared to handle. Pulling the economy in opposite directions Matthews describes stagflation as the economy moving in two different directions at once. On the one side is inflation, where goods and services cost more money. On the other side is a slowing economy, where high unemployment leads to lower discretionary spending. This contradicts the traditional economic belief that inflation and unemployment are inversely related, as described by the Phillips curve. According to this economic theory, higher unemployment coincides with lower inflation and vice versa. Which is why the stagflation of the 1970s came as a surpriseand why economists still disagree about what exactly causes it. But this time around, we know exactly why were facing a potential stagflationary recession. Its because of Trumps tariffs. This is definitely an anomaly Even though stagflation is already rare, Matthews regards our current situation as a weird and unique case. In the 1970s, the stagflation was partially oil related, he says. OPEC, which included a bunch of different countries, banded together to economically harm the U.S. The oil embargo wasnt the only driver of the 1970s economic crisis, but it was part of the reason consumers felt the effects of stagflation from 1973 to 1982especially the long lines at the gas pump Grandpa is always going on about. In 2025, its Trumps tariffs that are causing both inflation and stagnation. This is very much a man-made problem, says Matthews. In theory, we could just not have tariffs and things would go back to normal. Unfortunately, in addition to the unforced error of Trumps tariffs, our economy is also grappling with the chaos of how the tariffs have been implemented. Things keep moving so quickly, Matthews says. Tariffs are paused then unpaused. They go from 10% to 20% to 104% to whatever it is by the time this day is over. Consumers and businesses cant plan their purchases. In other words, even if the president immediately called a halt to the tariffswhich would probably end the specter of stagflationthe uncertainty and chaos weve already experienced would still affect the economy. At a time like this, people dont want to invest in the United States, Matthews explains. Companies dont know where to build or invest or hire. The Feds on/off switch With Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell recently in the news, you might be wondering why the Fed doesnt do something to nip the potential stagflation in the bud. Couldnt the notorious Jerry P lower interest rates to fix this? (The president has certainly wondered the same thing out loud and repeatedly.) Unfortunately, nothing the Fed can do will improve the situation. The Fed technically only has an on and off switch, explains Matthews. All it can do is raise rates or lower them. During periods of high unemployment and slow economic growth, the Fed might lower rates to encourage spending. With lower interest rates, its cheaper to buy things, which can help spur economic growth. This is why the president has been publicly melting down about Powells refusal to lower interest rates. Trump believes that lowering rates will stave off a recession. But we’ve also recently experienced significant inflation. Normally when you see prices rise because of inflation, the Fed increases interest rates to stop people from spending, Matthews says. Higher interest rates lead to lower demand, which helps to slow inflation. While inflation has cooled from its peak of 8 percent in 2022, many economistsincluding Powellare warning Trump’s trade policies will create another period of inflation. Lowering interest rates is not only pointless in the face of tariff-induced inflation, but lower interest rates also traditionally increase inflation. So lower rates wouldnt help. On the other hand, if the Fed raised interest rates, purchases would become even more expensivewhich traditionally slows economic growth and increases unemployment. Although raising interest rates to a sky-high 21% in 1979 was how Fed chair Paul Volcker ended the 1970s era stagflation, remember that his actions came after six years of ineffectual policies based on bad economic adviceand it took another three years for the economy to recover after his historic rate increase. Pulling a Volcker on the Fed rates should be considered the nuclear option. As much as we might want to appeal to Jerome Powell Kenobi as our only hope, the Feds on/off switch is not equipped to prevent stagflation. Preparing your finances While the average American cant control U.S. economic policy, there is a lot you can do to secure your own financial house for the possibility of stagflation. As a bonus, these strategies will also help your bottom line if the stagflation never comes to pass: Build your emergency fund. This advice is on the personal finance greatest hits album for a reason: having money set aside for an emergency is always a good idea. But right now, Matthews suggests putting aside more than you normally would. Things might get a little more expensive than you expect, he says. Also, a bigger emergency fund will help just in case you face a layoff. Pay off high-interest debt. Whatever you can do to eighty-six your expensive debt can help you be more flexible if the economic shift hits the fan. Stay invested. You may be tempted to cash out your 401(k) and bury the money in the backyard, but Matthews wants you to remember that staying calm and keeping your money invested is still the best long-term strategy. Surviving stagflation Of all the cultural trends from the 1970s, stagflation is the last one wed choose for a comeback. (Yes, even behind Jell-O Salad.) When it comes to stagflation, the Feds hands are tied and the U.S. economy may be in for a rough one. To add insult to injury, this stagflation reboot was entirely preventable. But even though you cant affect policy decisions or economic forces, you can focus on your personal economic health. Building a robust emergency fund, paying off high-interest debt, and staying invested can all help protect your financial house in case we do fall into stagflation. Were in a very, very strange position, Matthews says. Focus on controlling what you can control.
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E-Commerce
This weekend, you will need to put on your Sunday clothesespecially a fancy hata day early. The 151st Run for the Roses, better known as the 2025 Kentucky Derby, will take off at 6:57 p.m. ET, on Saturday, May 3, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Twenty three-year-old thoroughbreds have qualified through the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system and are ready to leave it all on the track. Heres what you need to know going into the big race day. Drama on and off the track Trainer Bob Baffert is back after serving a three-year suspension beginning in 2021, which was instituted after the 147th Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, tested positive for betamethasone. This steroid is an acceptable therapeutic treatment for horses but becomes illegal when found in the bloodstream as it can be considered a performance-enhancing drug. Beyond the suspension, Baffert was forced to vacate this victory. Even without Medina Spirit, Baffert has six other Kentucky Derby wins, but so does trainer Ben Jones. Baffert is hoping to best him this year and has even hedged his bets by entering two horses to make up for lost time. He has spent countless hours training Citizen Bull and Rodriguez for these two minutes. Fellow trainer Steve Asmussen also took this strategy with Publisher and Tiztastic, but he has yet to win a Derby, despite an impressive track record. Please tell us the odds Han Solo might not have appreciated when C-3P0 told him the odds in The Empire Strikes Back, but this isnt space travel. Ed DeRosa of Louisville’s Courier Journal picked three possible winning horses for readers to consider. He is betting on Journalism, the 3-to-1 favorite, in part because this horse is on a winning streak and does well under pressure. DeRosa also pointed out Chunk of Golds (30 to 1) noteworthy race in the Louisiana Derby. And dont count out Rodriguezs speed. Jody Demling, publisher of Cardinal Authority, has a different take and is fading Rodriguez (12-1), as CBS Sports reports. He agrees that Journalism is a sure thing and also points out Sandmans (6 to 1) closing speed. Anything can happen on race day during those 10 furloughs. How can I watch or stream the 2025 Kentucky Derby? The 2025 Kentucky Derby will take place at 6:57 p.m ET on Saturday. Viewers with traditional cable can tune into NBC or watch the race on NBC.com with their pay-TV credentials. There are 14 other races on the same day and lots of hats to see, so the pre-show begins at 2:30 p.m. ET. Also on cable, the USA Netwok’s pre-race coverage begins at 12 p.m. ET if you want even more. If you have cut the cable cord, you can watch live on Peacock, NBCUniversals streaming service. The streamer’s own coverage begins at 12 p.m. ET. Other live-TV streaming services also carry NBC. They include: Fubo Sling YouTube TV And don’t forget, NBC is free over the air if you have an antenna. Whatever way you choose to tune it, it is sure to be an exciting race.
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E-Commerce
When Skype debuted in 2003, it was the first time I remember feeling that an individual appand not just the broader internetwas radically disrupting communications. Thanks to its implementation of the voice over internet protocol (VOIP) and its simple interface, the app allowed users worldwide to call virtually any phone number directly from their PC with ease, in addition to calling other Skype users via its peer-to-peer (P2P) network. If you are too young to remember a time before smartphones, FaceTime, and WhatsApp, take it from me that Skypes launch was truly revolutionary. It suddenly became simple to call home if you were traveling internationally. And if you frequently needed to contact overseas companies or individuals for work, Skype significantly reduced the associated costs. Bye-bye, outrageous international phone call charges. But come Monday, May 5, 2025nearly 22 years after it changed communicationsSkype will shut down for good. Since P2P voice calling is now integrated into nearly every popular messenger app, many will not miss it. But for the subset of us who continue to use Skype to call bona fide phone numbers via VOIP, well need to find new solutions. Heres why Skype is shutting down and how you can find suitable VOIP alternatives. The downfall of Skype Over the course of its 22 years, Skype has changed ownership many times. In 2005, just two years after the Luxembourg-headquartered Skype Technologies debuted its revolutionary app, eBay acquired it for $2.5 billion. In 2009, eBay sold its majority ownership in the app to private investors. Finally, in 2011, the service was sold in its entirety to Microsoft for $8.5 billion. At the time, $8.5 billion was the most Microsoft had ever paid for a companyand there was a good reason why it made the splurge. By 2008, Skype had swelled to a base of 400 million registered users, making it one of the most-used apps in the world. Microsoft saw Skype as the future of communication, and when the 2011 acquisition was announced, Skype CEO Tony Bates said that with Microsofts ownership, we will be able to accelerate Skypes goal to reach 1 billion users daily. But over the next several years, as Microsoft integrated Skype into everything from Windows to smartphones to Xbox consoles, the app increasingly became bloated, going through numerous UI refreshes. What was once an easy P2P and VOIP service that allowed you to quickly call other users and nearly any phone number in the world was now cumbersome to use. But Skypes problems werent all self-inflicted. The service was also faced with an explosion of competition. As smartphones proliferated, nearly every major communications app added P2P calling, including giants like Metas WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, Apples FaceTime, and even more niche messengers like Signal. The mid-2010s also saw the rise of business communications apps like Slack and Microsofts own Teamseach of which allowed workers to communicate with their peers efficiently over text, voice, or video. And then came the pandemic in 2020. The world was under lockdown. This should have been the time for Skype to shine, but instead, Zoom took over, becoming the go-to communications app. It was simple to use, whereas Skype was cumbersome. Skype never recovered from that missed opportunity. With other apps having gobbled up Skype’s user base, and Microsoft’s increasing focus on Teams as its communications platform of choice, its no wonder that earlier this year, the company announced Skype will shut down for good on May 5. Skype VOIP alternatives for calling landline and mobile phone numbers The two main features that helped Skype take the world by storm in the early 2000s were P2P and VOIP calling. P2P let one Skype user call another using their username as the call identifier. VOIP let a Skype user call an actual phone number from the Skype app. Today, P2P calling apps are ubiquitous. The technology is integrated into nearly every smartphone messaging and communications app out there, including FaceTime, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, and Signal. Heck, even photo-sharing apps like Instagram have P2P calling functionality. But if you want to call an actual phone number from a smartphone app or your computer, your options are much more limitedespecially after Skype shuts down on Monday. Thats because none of the popular apps above support VOIP calling. However, there are still a few good VOIP alternatives out there. Some of the best include: Google Voice: Google Voice gives you a phone number anyone can call to reach you, and from your Google Voice account, you can also make VOIP calls to most phone numbers in the world. However, VOIP calling is limited to users in the United States and Canada. Viber Out: Viber Out is an add-on service from the makers of the free Viber app, a P2P communications app. Viber Out adds VOIP functionality to Viber. This is the solution that most resembles what Skype was like in its prime: a simple, easy-to-use VOIP solution that allows you to purchase a variety of calling plans. Worldwide monthly subscription plans that let you call mobile and landlines start at just $5.99/month at the time of this writing. Zoom Phone: This is an add-on plan to Zoom that allows you to make VOIP calls to cell phones and landlines right from the Zoom app. This makes Zoom Phone similar to both Skype and Viber Out. There are various pricing options depending on whether you plan to make calls to U.S. and Canadian numbers or to phone numbers in other countries. Its worth noting that Microsoft will also continue to offer ways for people to call landline phone numbers via a Microsoft Teams add-on feature called Teams Phone. However, Teams Phone is heavily designed around business use, so its features may be overkill and its cost a bit impractical for individuals simply looking for a quick, easy, and cheap way to make VOIP calls. Microsoft has also confirmed that any Skype users who still have active Skype Credits and subscriptions (which were required to make VOIP calls via Skype) after May 5 can still make VOIP calls by using a new Skype Dial Pad tool, which will remain available on the Skype web portal and withinthe free version of Microsoft Teams, known as Teams Free. However, these solutions are only available as long as your existing Skype credits or subscriptions remain.
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E-Commerce
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