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In a stunt thats surely destined for Netflix adaptation, this weekend a group of thieves broke into the Louvre in broad daylight and stole nine pieces of priceless jewelry in less than seven minutes. Prediction markets are already betting on whether the robbers will be caught. Prediction markets, including popular sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, are platforms dedicated to betting on current events including elections, sports events, and even cultural moments. In the past, they’ve been used to gamble on the next pope, the incoming editor of Vogue, and even whether the Coldplaygate couple would each get a divorce. Now, as French police desperately search for the whereabouts of the missing jewelry, armchair experts on these sites are looking to turn their own profits by intensely speculating on whether the thieves are destined for justice. Most betters think it’s not a question of if the perpetrators get caught, but whenand they’re casting votes for the most likely date of their arrests. What was stolen from the Louvre? The heist took place at about 9:30 a.m. on October 19. According to French Interior Minister Laurent Nunez in an interview with the AP, the crew accessed the museums Apollo Gallery via a basket lift, cut its window panes with a glass cutter, grabbed the jewels, and fled on motorbikes. French media is currently reporting that two perpetrators were dressed in yellow safety vests on the lift, while another two were each waiting on a scooter (though authorities are still investigating and have not confirmed these details). The jewelry that was lifted included a diadem worn by Empress Eugénie featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and more than 200 pearls; an emerald necklace and earrings gifted by Napoleon to his second wife Marie-Louise; and a diamond-and-sapphire jewelry set worn by multiple different queens. Despite successfully making off with some high-priced jewels, the robbers left one rather large breadcrumb in their wake: According to Frances culture ministry, Eugénies ornate gold crown was found lying outside the Louvre. Tobias Kormind, managing director of the jeweler 77 Diamonds, told the AP that its unlikely the stolen jewels will ever be seen again. Professional crews often break down and re-cut large, recognizable stones to evade detection, effectively erasing their provenance, he added. How prediction markets are responding On Kalshi, the question, Will the Louvre Crown Jewel thieves face charges this year? has amassed a nearly $11,000 bidding pool as of this writing. The most popular option among bidders so far is Before 2026, with 60% of the pool, followed by Before December with 37%, and, finally, Before November with 16%. Voters on Polymarket are betting within a much smaller time frame. The question, Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by…? has attracted more than $65,000 in betting volume, with the three top options being October 20, October 24, and October 31. Currently, betters have signaled a 2% chance of arrest by October 20, a 14% chance by October 24, and a 25% chance by October 31.
Category:
E-Commerce
On September 30, OpenAI launched its new Sora social network, powered by its Sora 2 video generation model. To call Soras launch successful is a gross understatement. Despite invite only access and restrictions outside North America, Sora exploded to over one million users in only five days. Thats faster than ChatGPTs user base grew after its own record-setting launch. Sora is a vertical video app, aping the interface and user experience (short clips, vertical swiping to select a new video, Likes and Shares) of every other app in its category. Except with Sora, theres a key differenceevery video on the app is explicitly and joyfully fake. I resorted to begging colleagues, lurking on obscure Discord channels, and constantly refreshing my own Sora app in order to get an invite. Finally, I got in and was able to try Sora firsthand. Im convinced that its the perfect social network. It could take down TikTok. Heres why. Suspending disbelief When you first sign into Sora, the app pops up a window warning you that You are about to enter a creative world of AI-generated content. Some videos may depict people you recognize, but the actions and events shown are not real. The warning reminds me of the famous sign at the entrance to Disneyland. That sign reads Here you leave today and enter the world of yesterday, tomorrow and fantasy. Disneylands sign is an invitation to suspend disbeliefto enter a world in which everything is kind of real, but is also explicitly curated and fabricated to delight you; a purified, enhanced reflection of reality. Sora feels similar. After accepting the warning, youre offered a blank box where you can type a description of any video you want to see. When you enter text in the box, the Sora app uses the Sora 2 video generator (OpenAI has never been much for clear naming conventions) to make whatever youve asked for, complete with synchronized audio and even music. Crucially, you can also begin to scroll through the AI creations of other users. Delightful deepfakes I didnt expect that an app filled with bespoke deepfakes would be fun to use. Turns out, it is. Wildly so. Many of Soras users creations are bizarre, engaging, and uproariously funny. In one popular video, a chicken hangs from a drone, flying over a drab British neighborhood while rapping about his predicament in a strong Cockney accent. In another, Jesus and his disciples ride a roller coaster. He speaks in bible verses while the disciples scream in the background at every turn and drop. Some of the best videos feature celebrities. In one, the ubiquitous 1980s painter Bob Ross stands in a Target store, furiously scribbling a mountain scene on a wall. Angry employees approach him, saying professionally but assertively Sir, you cannot draw on our wall, to which Ross responds, I know, Im trying to stop while scribbling even faster. Then stop! the employee commands. Just more shadow, I promise, Ross says as the employee grows more frustrated, yelling No sir, give me the marker. It needs a cloud . . . Ross says plaintively as security arrives to escort him out of the building. In another clip, Queen Elizabeth speaks at a press conference. Apparently having received a critical question, she says You know what? Im sick of you guys! before cackling and flying straight up into the sky with a woosh. An alarmed newscaster yells Shes going up! Your majesty, come back! as the crowd screams and the Queen ascends into the clouds. No one asked for reality Sora is far more fun to use than I expected. I hate vertical video apps, and have defiantly avoided spending any of my precious time on this planet scrolling through TikTok. Yet, I find myself returning to Sora again and again. Why? For one thing, the apps incredibly realistic video generation capabilities let users create anything they want. That unlocks a huge amount of pent up creativityas well as a hefty dose of Monty Pythonesque silliness. But the appeal goes deeper than that. Social media used to be funa melange of quirky local news stories, cat videos, updates on the lives of people you vaguely remember from high school, and photos of your friends breakfasts. Today, though, social networks are filled with highly-polished, aspirational content posted by brands, influencers, and the mini Kardashians in your own social circles. Fire up Instagram or its ilk and youre likely to see a stunning shot of a perfectly-styled, impossibly beautiful person sipping Negronis in Majorca, or a pic of your friend living it up at a fancy restaurant you cant afford. Youre unlikely to see footage of that same friend attempting (and failing) to troubleshoot her air fryer, or spending 45 minutes on hold with her insurance company. Everything is carefully selected and curated. Increasingly, youre also likely to see plenty of truly fake AI content masquerading as the real thing. More than 40% of Facebook content is now created by AI. Using social media has thus become a dispiriting slog through machine-generated slop and aspirational images, where youre constantly forced to question whats real and whats fakeor at least highly polished and edited. Its exhausting. No wonder that even teenagersthe most voracious users of social appsare fed up. Pew reports that 48% of teens now believe that social media is bad or their mental health. Sora sidesteps all this drudgery by ignoring authenticity altogether. Everything is fake! Theres no need to question what youre seeingyou can just enjoy the storytelling, the visuals, the delightful insanity and spectacle of it all. Its a weirdly liberating experience. Rather than feeling like wading in a cesspool of AI drek, using Sora feels like watching a very clever movie. Movies are fake, after all. Yet people spend billions of hours enjoying them. And here, if you like something you see, you can leap in and make your own version of it with a simple prompt and the press of a button. Turns out, people never wanted reality. Sora captures all the spectacle, drama, and storytelling that keeps people engaged with TikTok and Reels, but without any of the shame, exclusion, and need to constantly keep your digital guard up. Plus, you can tell any story you want on Sora, physics be damned! Its a seductive combinationfun, silliness, joy, and freedom from the limits of reality. No wonder people are already joining the network by the millions. TikTok and the other peddlers of depressing, soulless, obsessively curated semi-realities should be very, very afraid.
Category:
E-Commerce
How do modernist transportation planners recommend handling congestion? By recommending new vehicle lanes. What happens when you build new vehicle lanes to handle traffic congestion? The vehicle lanes fill up with more traffic congestion. As they themselves have said for decades, you cannot build your way out of congestion. But every week you can do a quick internet search to see a bunch of new attempts. Induced demand Ive been hearing planners and engineers say we cant build our way out of congestion since the 1990s, when I began my career. The wonky term that describes why adding more lanes doesnt eliminate congestion is induced demand. Transportation professionals have understood the induced demand phenomenon for decades. Consider the hypothetical (or is it?) Route 60. Route 60 has two lanes in each direction with turn lanes at each signalized intersection. Most of the real estate fronting the corridor is retail or office, but thousands of single-family homes, townhomes, and apartments are just behind the other land uses. As you might expect, people choose to frequent the shops closest to home. {"blockType":"creator-network-promo","data":{"mediaUrl":"","headline":"Urbanism Speakeasy","description":"Join Andy Boenau as he explores ideas that the infrastructure status quo would rather keep quiet. To learn more, visit urbanismspeakeasy.com.","substackDomain":"https:\/\/www.urbanismspeakeasy.com\/","colorTheme":"blue","redirectUrl":""}} The department of transportation adds one more lane in each direction. After construction, people choose to visit more retail centers further from home because theres suddenly more space on the corridor. It gets to the point where enough people have made the same choices that car traffic on the corridor is back to its preconstruction levels. In response, the department of transportation builds one more lane in each direction. Now with four lanes in each direction, the corridor is wider than the nearby interstate. And once again, people who were avoiding the traffic jams on Route 60 now choose to get back on the road and drive further. Enough people make the same choice to drive further from home and the car traffic is back to preconstruction levels. The might-be-fictional Route 60 is the same never-ending story of induced demand in communities across the country. Road expansions only temporarily reduce traffic congestion, but professionals only temporarily remember expansions dont work. A better way Its no secret that public agencies are strapped for cash, and its no secret that public agencies continue to spend depleted accounts on road expansion projects. Meanwhile, the average citizen continues to point out problems with existing infrastructure: potholes, withering landscaping, crumbling sidewalks, and poor street lighting. Taxpayers financial contributions deserve good stewardship. Public agencies shouldnt be building something that cant be maintained, let alone expanding something thats destined to attract even more traffic and thus maintenance. Induced demand isnt inherently bad or goodits just a description of an economics principle of scarcity and choice. Theres a way for departments of transportation to take advantage of induced demand by creating bicycle networks that will fill up with new bike traffic. Robust bicycle infrastructure gives people the freedom to make short trips without having to rely on a motor vehicle. And of course, bicycle infrastructure yields an extraordinary return on investment when compared to car-oriented infrastructure. Culture plays a tremendous role in the planning and construction of transportation systems. When Danish streets were convenient for high-speed vehicular traffic and long commutes, thats exactly how people behaved. Following a fundamental shift in design philosophy, bicycling was made convenient and Danes naturally opted for the easier travel mode. Copenhagen wasnt always Copenhagen. They deliberately redesigned streets to make riding a bike an easy option, and just like that, the bike lanes filled up with people making obvious transportation choices. Americas rural villages, sprawling suburbs, and big cities have so much potential. Well meet that potential as future generations lead the culture shift by using the induced demand principle for the greater good. {"blockType":"creator-network-promo","data":{"mediaUrl":"","headline":"Urbanism Speakeasy","description":"Join Andy Boenau as he explores ideas that the infrastructure status quo would rather keep quiet. To learn more, visit urbanismspeakeasy.com.","substackDomain":"https:\/\/www.urbanismspeakeasy.com\/","colorTheme":"blue","redirectUrl":""}}
Category:
E-Commerce
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