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NASA just handed Elon Musk a very public reality checkand virtually threw its own moon plans into the trashcan, although the U.S. space agency wont be admitting that. SpaceX isn’t necessarily the shoo-in to land the first Americans on the moon since the Apollo 17 mission 52 years ago. Instead, NASA is opening the contract to other companies, like Jeff Bezoss Blue Origin and Lockheed Martin. While this doesnt mean that SpaceX wont get it, its the agencys way of slamming SpaceX for its delays and lack of focus on the lunar program. Reopening the marquee Artemis crewed landing contract to competition is an admission that the Starship wont be ready on time. Americas return to the lunar surface needs a plan B. Its a big shift that weakens SpaceXs grip, yes, but also rattles Artemis, andcruciallytilts the new space race toward China. Im in the process of opening that contract up, NASAs acting chief Sean Duffy said on Fox & Friends, pointing squarely to Starships mounting schedule slips. He added that he expects companies like Blue Origin and possibly others to bid, putting Jeff Bezoss Blue Moon lander back in contention two years before the alleged scheduled landing date. NASA also told SpaceX and Blue Origin to deliver accelerated landing plans by October 29, and it will solicit proposals from the wider industry to increase the cadence of moon missions, a NASA spokesperson said. Blue Origin is widely expected to compete; Lockheed Martin has already convened an industry team to respond. As expected, Musk is enraged. He didnt need to convene anything to respond on X: The person responsible for Americas space program cant have a 2 digit IQ, he said in response to Duffy. Delays everywhere To recap: The Artemis program is a multi-contractor, multibillion-dollar campaign to restore a sustained U.S. presence on the moon. Artemis III is the mission that, if it doesnt get cancelled, will put American boots back on the surface of the moon. It is a critical step for America to remain ahead of the new space race with China, which aims to colonize the solar system in this century. Whoever gets to the moon first and establishes the first base in its south polewhere water is abundant for life and, more importantly, the cooking of new rocket fuel to launch ships to Mars and beyondwill have the advantage for the next few decades. Artemis III was planned for 2027 with SpaceXs Starship as the human landing system (HLS). This is how it works: Boeings Space Launch System (SLS) rocket launches four astronauts in Lockheed Martins Orion to lunar orbit; SpaceXs Starship HLS then docks with Orion and ferries astronauts from lunar orbit to the surface and back. That last piecethe lunar Starshipis the fulcrum. NASAs own advisers now say that the 2027 date could slip years due to SpaceXs competing priorities. The agency has grown uneasy with SpaceXs lack of progress on lunar-lander-specific milestones. Internally and publicly, Musk insists the company is moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry. But lightning alone doesnt meet Artemiss deadlines. Of course, nobody else in the program, including Boeings SLS and Lockheed Martins Orion, is meeting the deadlines either, but lets discuss that later. SpaceXs broader Starship campaignrapid, testtofailure flights to mature a super heavylift systemmatters for Starlink and Mars. The lunar variant is a tougher ask. As NASA program veterans point out, the HLS Starship needs to be markedly different from the prototypes flying today, then cleared for astronaut operationsa stretch for any organization on tight timelines. Meanwhile, the White House wants the moon landing done before January 2029, adding political pressure to an already complex schedule. Artemis IIthe 10day crewed loop around the moon that sets up Artemis IIIremains on track for April and could even get moved to February, NASA officials have said. Duffy seems to imply that Artemis IIIs landing hinges on HLS being ready, but blaming Musk alone ignores the larger truth: The program is struggling on multiple fronts. The SLS core rocket is expendable and costs more than $4 billion per launchan eyewatering figure that undermines longterm cadence like he says NASA needs. Lockheed Martins Orion capsule suffered significant heat shield erosion on Artemis Is reentry. Not even the lunar suits are ready. NASAs Inspector General reports tally roughly $4.3 billion in SLS overages and about three years of delays. And the programs architecturemany contractors, many interfaces, shifting prioritiesis a recipe for disaster. Even former NASA administrator Mike Griffin called the Artemis program excessively complex with an unrealistic price tag. Advantage China While the U.S. wrangles contracts, hardware, and schedules, Beijing is seemingly executing to plan. China has already completed a full landing-and-ascent test of its crewed lunar lander, Lanyue (embrace the moon), a vehicle that is closer to Apollos lunar module than NASAs own program. While Apollos lunar module had two sectionsthe main engine to land on the moon and its cockpit, with a propulsion system to take off from the moon once the mission is doneLanyue is one single spaceship. Like Apollo, it is designed to carry two Chinese astronauts between lunar orbit and the surface, supporting life support, power, and data for the surface stay. It is not as ambitious as Blue Moon or Starship HLS, but Beijing has taken the practical, less problematic route. The Long March 10 heavylift rocketthe equivalent to NASAs Saturn V or its SLSis advancing according to officials, who insist that the overall development of crewed lunar missions is progressing smoothly. Chinas target is to put astronauts on the moon before 2030, which is actually earlier than its original projections. The CNSAChinese National Space Administrationis going further and faster than NASAs plans at this point. One shocking example: It has already deployed multiple satellites in lunar orbit to support its manned missions and its future base in the moons South Pole, which Beijing says will be operating in 2035. By 2050, the South China Morning Post reports, the CNSA expects to have bases in the South Pole, the lunar equator, and the far side of the moon. And thas worrying for the United States and its flagging space supremacy. This isn’t flagplanting theater like in the 1960s. The South Poles permanently shadowed craters harbor large deposits of water ice. Ice means drinkable water, breathable oxygen, and rocket propellanteverything you need for permanent basing and a new space economy that will make trillions of dollars. The first nation to stand up reliable access to polar ice writes the rules of that economy. Any country that wants to establish mining and manufacturing on the moon or in asteroids on Earths orbit, will need a strategic permanent base on our satellite. From there, you could theoretically take over the entire solar system with an ease that you would not have from Earth. This is because launching a spacecraft from the moon takes a lot fewer resources than launching from our planet, where you have to counter 10 times the gravity force. Its a race the U.S. cant afford to lose and yet, each Artemis delay shifts the space race eastward. While NASAs decision to open the Artemis III landing contract is a necessary one, it is also an admission that the current plan wont land on schedule. In fact, Duffy himself said that it wont fly until 2028, which NASA confirmed. You can say that a 2028 launch still gives the U.S. two years before China’s mission but, since Artemis’s history can be measured in schedule setbacks, at this point its very hard to believe that the calendar-wreaking havoc is over. We are going to need a series of miracles for that to work out and we just cant rush astronaut safety. But the biggest problem for NASA is that, today, China is marching on with a centralized, fully state-backed, long-term program to put taikonauts on the moon before the end of the decade, like Apollo once did. While NASA’s decision was a necessary one, if the U.S. wants to lead in the moontoMars-and-beyond era, it must lock an operational lander as soon as possible, fix existing and future hardware issues in record time, and increase mission cadence. Right nownot some time later in the decade. Otherwise, the first footprints of this centurys lunar age will belong to Beijing.
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E-Commerce
Halloween is a fun, scary time for children and adults alikebut why does the holiday seem to start so much earlier every year? Decades ago, when I was young, Halloween was a much smaller affair, and people didnt start preparing until mid-October. Today, in my neighborhood near where I grew up in Massachusetts, Halloween decorations start appearing in the middle of summer. Whats changed isnt just when we celebrate but how: Halloween has evolved from a simple folk tradition to a massive commercial event. As a business school professor who has studied the economics of holidays for years, Im astounded by how the business of Halloween has grown. And understanding why its such big business may help explain why its creeping earlier and earlier. The business of Halloween Halloweens roots lie in a Celtic holiday honoring the dead, later adapted by the Catholic Church as a time to remember saints. Today its largely a secular celebration one that gives people from all backgrounds a chance to dress up, engage in fantasy, and safely confront their fears. That broad appeal has fueled explosive growth. The National Retail Federation has surveyed Americans about their Halloween plans each September since 2005. Back then, slightly more than half of Americans said they planned to celebrate. In 2025, nearly three-quarters said they woulda huge jump in 20 years. And people are planning to shell out more money than ever. Total spending on Halloween is expected to reach a record US$13 billion this year, according to the federationan almost fourfold increase over the past two decades. Adjusting for inflation and population growth, I found that the average American will spend an expected $38 on Halloween this yearup from just $18 per person back in 2005. Thats a lot of candy corn. Candy imports show a similar trend. September has long been the key month for the candy trade, with imports about one-fifth higher than during the rest of the year. Back in September 2005, the U.S. imported about $250 million of the sweet stuff. In September 2024, that figure had tripled to about $750 million. This is part of a larger trend of Halloween becoming a lot more professionalized. For example, when I was a kid, it wasnt unusual for households to pass out brownies, candied apples, and other homemade treats to trick-or-treaters. But because of safety concerns and food allergies, for decades, Americans have been warned to stick to mass-produced, individually wrapped candies. The same shift has happened with costumes. Years ago, many people made their own; today, store-bought costumes dominateeven for pets. Why Halloween keeps creeping earlier While theres no definitive research establishing why Halloween seems to start earlier each year, the increase in spending is one major driver. Halloween items are seasonal, which means no one wants to buy giant plastic skeletons on Nov. 1. As total spending grows, retailers order more inventory, and the cost of storing ever-larger amounts of unsold items until the next year becomes a bigger consideration. Once a seasons commercial footprint becomes large enough, retailers begin ordering and displaying merchandise long before its actually needed. For example, winter coats start appearing in stores in early fall and are typically gone when the snow starts falling. Its the same with Halloween: Retailers put out merchandise early to ensure theyre not stuck with unsold goods once the season is over. They also often price strategically charging full price when items first hit the shelves, appealing to eager early shoppers, and then marking down prices closer to the holiday. This clears shelves and warehouses, making room for the next upcoming shopping season. Over the past two decades, Halloween has become an ever-bigger commercial holiday. The growth in people enjoying the holiday and the increase in spending has resulted in Halloween becoming one giant treat for businesses. The big trick for retailers is preventing this holiday from starting before the Fourth of July. Jay L. Zagorsky is an associate professor at the Questrom School of Business at Boston University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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E-Commerce
When Ben Stiller goes out to dinner, he drinks between one and three Shirley Temples. But a fully-grown adult ordering a classic childs beverage can elicit funny looks. So, to help cut the stigma, and the sugar, the actor, director, and producer launched his own soda company last monthcalled Stillers Sodawith a grown-up version of a Shirley Temple as one of its three flavors. He simply wanted a version that he could feel good about drinking himself, says Stillers Soda cofounder Alexander Doman, a serial food and beverage entrepreneur. Stillers isnt the only soda company suddenly flirting with the Shirley Temple. In the past year, soda powerhouses and drink disruptors from 7UP and Gatorade to Spindrift and Bloom Pop have debuted Shirley Temple products. Even frozen yogurt chain 16 Handles got into the game. The fizzy drink, ordered previously mostly at bars, has been a staple of American childhoods since the 1930s, when Shirley Temple herself was a young star on the big screen. Legend has it that the concoctiongrenadine, lemon-lime soda, and a maraschino cherrywas created by West Hollywood bartenders so that Temple could enjoy a drink with her costars. Everyone has their own Shirley Temple memory. Barb Stuckey, chief new product strategy officer at Mattson, a major food and drink developer for retailers and restaurants, remembers family outings to the Flower Drum Chinese restaurant in Baltimore in the 80s, ordering chop suey with a Shirley Temple. It made her feel like a grown-up. She’s having a glass of wine, he’s having a beer, and hes having this thing with a straw with a little umbrella, she says. I want to be part of this, whatever it is. That feeling has been passed down through generations, though few are still alive who recall the drinks namesake. I can’t imagine that more than 5 to 10% of Gen Zs have any clue who Shirley Temple was, Stuckey says. She was maybe the youngest-ever child star on the silver screen. She’s now become a maraschino cherry, pretty much. All the more eye-opening is that Gen Z is enamored with the drink. This could be due to the generations love of nostalgia, its lower alcohol use, and the mocktails effervescence on social media. These factors have combined to raise the drinks profile among young people and made it something you dont have to graduate out ofleading companies to go all in on stirring up their own batches. Arc of a new trend Mary Haderlein, the head of Mattsons Chicago office, tracks the modern Shirley Temple revival back to around 2021 when, homebound during the pandemic, people were shaking their own cocktails. The Shirley Templeand the Dirty Shirley, made with vodkawas easy and unpretentious, offering the comfort of nostalgia during a scary time. All of these childhood favorites became these master brands , she says, as processed favorites like Oreos and Cinnamon Toast Crunch surged in sales. Young people had the time to post their colorful creations on TikTok. [Photo: Stiller’s Soda] At the same time, restaurants and bars were facing shutdowns and supply shortages, and Shirleys only required basic pantry ingredients. They didn’t have to rely on an import that got caught up in the Suez Canal, Haderlein says. When people returned to the in-real-life socializing theyd craved, the Dirty Shirley stayed popular; it was hailed as the drink of summer 2022 by The New York Times. Its profile has continued to grow. Earlier this year, The Times profiled Leo Kelly, an 11-year-old known as the Shirley Temple King, who since 2019 has rated the drink at different restaurants on Instagram, docking points for slip-ups like too few cherries. One review, of a Shirley Temple at Evermore Resort, in Orlandowhich had five cherries and a score of 9.6/10received 335,000 likes last year. Casey Ferrell, senior VP of consulting at marketing data firm Kantar, who focuses on how different generations embrace culture, says that even the youngest influencers can push trends into the public consciousness. (In the most embarrassing of snubs, Kelly declined my interview request.) In the typical arc of a new trend, Haderlein says, something will become popular at independent restaurants, then move to chain eateries, and eventually become ready-to-drink products on grocery store shelves. Wholesome newstalgia 7UP was the first major beverage brand to offer the Shirley Temple via retail, in October of 2024. Katie Webb, VP of innovation and transformation at its parent company, Keurig Dr Pepper, says that 7UP naturally had equity in the drink, given that a lemon/lime soda is the very base of the beverage. (Note: the Shirley Temple King prefers his with ginger ale.) [Photo: Keurig Dr Pepper] It was a limited run, for the holidays, and will return this year to capitalize on a season when multiple generations gather, toast, and embrace old traditions. Gen Z are receptive to stuff that we think is nostalgic but that they never actually experienced, says Kantars Ferrell says. Gen Z may use the word wholesome in this context. Its a word they use a lot. Webb likes the term newstalgia to describe Gen Zs unique spin on the past. And as with everything Gen Z related, visuals are key. Todays teen and 20-somethings are drawn to food and drinks with features that stand out on TikTok or Instagram, such as bright colors, textures, foams, and fizzes. To a degree, photogenic is more important than flavorful, and Shirley Templ plays right into that: it swirls, it bubbles, and it pops on the gram. They also like their beverages on the rocks. Cold drinks represented 75% of Starbucks U.S. sales in Q3 of 2024. If you walk into a Starbucks, I dare you to find a single Gen Z that is drinking a hot beverage, Stuckey says. 16 Handles knows. The frozen yogurt chain took this trend even further with its Shirley Temple cherry lime sorbet, launched as a limited run this past August. Will a Shirley Temple without sugar still taste as sweet? The downside of the traditional Shirley Temple is that its not exactly good for you. A typical serving could have between 30 and 60 grams of sugar, and up to 300 calories. Even Temple herself had issues with it, telling NPR in 1986 that she hated the saccharine sweet, icky drink. Holy cow, they have tons of sugar, says Amy Steel Vanden-Eykel, chief growth officer at Spindrift, who was incentivized to create an alternative. In February, Spindrift launched its own version, with no added sugar or sweeteners. Its made with real fruit, essentially just a higher ratio of juice to carbonated water than its seltzers. (Shirley Temple is one of five flavors in its new soda line, which includes other throwbacks like Strawberry Shortcake and Orange Cream Float.) [Photo: Spindrift] Spindrifts tart iteration doesnt taste all that much like a Shirley Temple to me. But the good-for-you modification is probably a smart move, given that one in three consumers say reducing non-healthy ingredients like high sugar in beverages is important, according to Mattsons data. Other brands have dialed back the sugar, too. 7UP released a zero-sugar version as part of its rollout last year. Bloom Pop, also owned by Keurig Dr Pepper, released a prebiotic Shirley Temple in July thats low sugar and low calorie. In September, so did Slice, which PepsiCo relaunched this year as a gut-health drink brand after sunsetting it in the early 2000s. [Photo: Bloom Pop] The drink is also benefitting from the fact that Gen Z is famously not consuming as much alcohol as previous generationsabout 20% less, consistent data shows. (It’s one of a handful of perceived risky behaviors theyre engaging in less, Ferrell says, along with driving and sex. In a chaotic-feeling world, theyre careful about how much [risk] theyre willing to tolerate in their lives, he says.) But they still want fun drinks, and wholesome sodas become favorites for the sobercurious to bring to the party, without the stigma such adult mocktails may have had in the past. 44 bottles Keurig Dr Peppers data shows that 72% of Gen Z try a new drink monthly, versus 44% of all Americans. This is great news for new flavor debuts, but worrisome news for the folks trying to build them into sustainable businesses. For 7UP, keeping the Shirley Temple flavor as a limited run makes sense. Brands used to be the arbiters of culture, Ferrell says. Today, that power has tipped to the consumer. Companies now need to be reactive to whatevers hot on TikTok. When they pounce fast, it pays off. 7UPs Webb, who says that the company is constantly monitoring social media to track what kind of concoctions consumers might be making with our products, notes that 67% of its Shirley Temple trialists were new to the brand. [Photo: Gatorade] Gatorade is also staying flexible. In June, the brand presented WNBA player Paige Bueckers with a special-edition flavor of her favorite drink, the Shirley Temple. The video of the presentation became the brands most commented-on piece of social content ever, says chief brand officer Anuj Bhasin. (The company then sent 44 bottles to Bueckers fans who commented on the Instagram post, the number being a nod to the points Bueckers scored when setting a rookie record.) With only 44 bottles, the release could be considered a brand activation, a limited run of a product based on a disruptive cultural moment, with a campaign around it. We are absolutely seeking to do more of these things, Gatorades Bhasin says, adding that the company will rarely commit to making a new flavor like Shirley Temple permanent. The next new thing Although Gatorade maintains multiyear road maps, it also now keeps resources in reserve for forming a quick-strike team to execute last-minute campaigns based on fads and quick shifts in the zeitgeist. It now has a special development facility at its Valhalla, New York, R&D site to enable faster market turnaround; products produced at this site are not even meant for retail sale. The good news for big beverage companies is that ginning up a new flavor like a Shirley Temple is relatively simple. Theyre sourcing straightforward syrups from longtime suppliers, not mapping out new supply chains. This is not rocket scienceits lemon, lime, and cherry, Stuckey says. When it comes to Shirley Teple, it just feels like this is built for mass consumption. (Stillers cofounder Doman insists that its Shirley Temple soda had nothing to do with trends. He insists it was driven merely by Stillers own tastebuds, which signed off on every iteration until it was finished.) But soon enough there will be a new thing, as there always is. These same brands are going to have to tap into something else after this winds its way through everybody’s system, Ferrell says. Whats next? Mattsons Haderlein is seeing a rise in bitter spritzes. Her colleague Stuckey isnt betting against matcha. Yet because of its history, the Shirley Temple also has staying power. It does have a genuine cultural underpinning to it, Haderlein says, predicting that it will likely endure, at least peripherally, as a part of childhoods across the country, no matter what generation. How wholesome.
Category:
E-Commerce
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