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The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage fell to its lowest level of 2025 this week, an encouraging sign for prospective home buyers. The average long-term mortgage rate dipped to 6.15% from 6.18% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Wednesday. That’s the lowest average long-term rate since October 3, 2024, when it dipped to 6.12% before shooting back up. One year ago, the rate averaged 6.91%. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, fell this week to 5.44% from 5.50% the previous week. A year ago, it averaged 6.13%, Freddie Mac said. Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, from the Federal Reserves interest rate policy decisions to bond market investors expectations for the economy and inflation. They generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans. The 10-year yield was at 4.14% at midday Wednesday, down a touch from last weeks 4.15%. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has been mostly holding steady in recent weeks since Oct. 30 when it dropped to 6.17%, which at the time was its lowest level in more than a year. Mortgage rates began easing in July in anticipation of a series of Fed rate cuts, which began in September and continued this month. The Fed doesnt set mortgage rates, but when it cuts its short-term rate that can signal lower inflation or slower economic growth ahead, which can drive investors to buy U.S. government bonds. That can help lower yields on long-term U.S. Treasurys, which can result in lower mortgage rates. Even so, Fed rate cuts dont always translate into lower mortgage rates. Home shoppers who can afford to pay cash or finance at current mortgage rates are in a more favorable position than they were a year ago. Home listings are up sharply from 2024, and many sellers have resorted to lowering their initial asking price as homes take longer to sell, according to data from Realtor.com. Still, affordability remains a challenge for aspiring homeowners, especially first-time buyers who dont have equity from an existing home to put toward a new home purchase. Uncertainty over the economy and job market are also keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes rose in November from the previous month, but slowed compared to a year earlier for the first time since May despite average long-term mortgage rates holding near their low point for the year. Through the first 11 months of this year, home sales are down 0.5% compared to the same period last year. Economists generally forecast that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will remain slightly above 6% next year. Matt Ott, AP business writer
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E-Commerce
U.S. stocks are slipping in afternoon trading Wednesday as Wall Street closes out a banner year for markets driven by both optimism and uncertainty. The S&P 500 was down 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 100 points, or 0.2%, as of 1:47 p.m. Eastern time. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.1%. The stock indexes are coming off a three-day losing streak. Trading is expected to be light ahead of the New Years Day holiday, when markets will be closed. With just one trading day left before the year ends, most big investors have closed out their positions for the year and trading volume has been very thin. Even after their mini post-Christmas pullback, the indexes are on pace for strong gains for the year. The S&P 500, which set 39 record highs in 2025, is up about 17% for the year, its third straight double-digit annual gain. The Nasdaq is up 21.1% and the Dow has gained 13.4%. Wall Streets 2025 gains came as investors embraced the optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and its potential for boosting profits across almost all sectors. But the market had no shortage of turbulence along the way amid President Donald Trumps on-again, off-again tariffs on imported goods worldwide and uncertainty over the trajectory of interest rates. The S&P 500 plunged nearly 5% on April 3, its worst day since the 2020 COVID crash. It fell another 6% a day later, after Chinas response raised fears of an escalating trade war. Worries also gripped the U.S. Treasury market. Trump eventually put his tariffs on pause and negotiated agreements with countries to lower his proposed tariff rates on their imports, helping calm investors nerves. Strong profit reports from companies and three cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve also helped drive markets higher. Still, the AI frenzy that drove markets in 2025 did not come without concerns. Chief among them is the worry that artificial intelligence technology may not produce enough profits and productivity to make all the investment worth it. That could keep the pressure on AI stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom, which were responsible for much of the markets gains this year. And its not just AI stocks that critics say are too pricey. Stocks across the market still look expensive after their prices climbed faster than profits. On top of concerns that stocks are overvalued, the ongoing impact of the wide-ranging U.S.-led trade war threatens to add more fuel to inflation in the U.S. Despite the Fed cutting rates over concerns about the labor market, inflation remains solidly above the central banks 2% target. Wall Street is betting that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its next meeting in January. Traders got an update on the state of the job market Wednesday. The Labor Department reported that fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week with layoffs remaining low despite a weakening labor market. All of the sectors in the S&P 500 were in the red Wednesday, with technology stocks among the biggest drags on the market. Western Digital fell 2.1% and Micron Technology was down 1.5%. Treasury yields were mostly higher in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.16% from 4.13% late Tuesday. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which moves more closely with expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do, rose to 3.47% from 3.45%. Trading in precious metals continued to be volatile as the year winds down. Silver swung back to a big loss, giving back 9.1% after Tuesday’s gain of more than 10%. Following Friday’s 7.7% jump, silver lost nearly 9% on Monday. It’s still up more than 140% this year. Gold was down 1.2%, but is still up about 64% in 2025. U.S. benchmark crude slipped 0.7% to $57.55 per barrel. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, fell 0.6% to $60.97 per barrel. Global stock markets including those in Germany, Japan and South Korea were closed Wednesday for the New Years holidays, while trading was mixed in those that remained open. Alex Veiga, AP business writer
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E-Commerce
Americans filed the fewest new jobless claims in a month last week, and while the number of unemployed workers collecting relief payments has eased from recent highs, there is little indication of a break from the weak hiring environment that settled in over the course of President Donald Trump‘s first year back at the White House. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits for the week ended December 27 dropped unexpectedly by 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000, the lowest since the end of November, Labor Department data showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would rise to 220,000. The report was published a day early because of the New Year’s Day holiday. Claims have been volatile in recent weeks amid challenges in adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations ahead of the holiday season. The labor market remains locked in what economists and policymakers describe as a “no hire, no fire” mode, and the final report of 2025 was largely emblematic of that. Though the economy remains resilient, with gross domestic product increasing at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, the labor market has almost stalled. Labor demand and supply have been impacted by Trump’s dramatic policy shifts since he began his second presidency in January, most notably his steep import tariffs and his aggressive immigration crackdown that has limited worker supply, economists say. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell by 47,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.866 million during the week ending December 20, the claims report showed. “The drop in initial unemployment claims to 199,000 in the week of Christmas was likely another seasonal-adjustment distortion,” John Ryding, chief economic adviser at Brean Capital, said. “Bigger picture, we have not seen a meaningful increase in layoffs as signaled by these data in 2025 with the average level of claims in the year at 226,100 compared to 223,000 in 2024.” Continuing claims have eased from recent highs Continuing claims had neared the 2 million mark in late October but have eased off some as the year wound down and a record-long federal government shutdown ended in mid-November. While off that recent peak, continuing claims are somewhat higher than they were at this time last year, and at a level that aligns with a survey from the Conference Board last week showing consumers’ perceptions of the labor market deteriorated this month to levels last seen in early 2021. Hiring has slowed substantially in 2025, averaging just 55,000 new jobs created a month through November, roughly a third of the pace in 2024, and the breadth of hiring has narrowed as employers awaited greater clarity on Trump’s policies and as they gauge their workforce needs against the rapid rollout of productivity-enhancing artificial intelligence tools. The slow hiring pace has brought job creation to near what economists estimate is the break-even rate that keeps the jobless rate from rising. The unemployment rate increased to a four-year high of 4.6% in November, though part of the rise was because of technical factors related to the 43-day government shutdown. A jobless rate tracker from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests it remained unchanged in December at 4.6%. The Labor Department, which was unable to produce a jobless rate for October because of the shutdown, will publish employment figures for December on January 9. Still, the number of Americans on jobless benefits rolls as a share of the U.S. labor force is just 1.1% and has changed little over the course of this year even as the formal unemployment rate has climbed from 3.7% in January to November’s 4.6%. The lack of correlation in movement between the two data points is very unusual, and stands as further evidence for some economists of the reluctance among employers to cut headcount in an environment of still-tight labor supply. What does it mean for the Fed? The unusual attributes of the current job market are central to the debate underway at the Federal Reserve about whether to cut interest rates further to forestall further weakening of employment or to hold borrowing costs steady to keep pressure on inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The U.S. central bank this month cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points to the 3.50% to 3.75% range, but signaled rates were unlikely to fall in the near term as policymakers await clarity on the direction of the labor market and inflation, which has drifted upward over the year thanks to pressure on goods prices from Trump’s tariffs. Minutes of the December 9-10 meeting released on Tuesday showed the depth of the divide among policymakers. Even some of those who supported the rate cut acknowledged “the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged,” given the different risks facing the U.S. economy. For Fed officials, much hinges on what a blitz of data coming in the early weeks of 2026 reveals about the economy’s direction. Some of those policymakers who were either opposed or skeptical of the most recent cut “suggested that the arrival of a considerable amount of labor market and inflation data over the coming intermeeting period would be helpful on making judgments about whether a rate reduction was warranted,” the meeting minutes said. Dan Burns, Reuters
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