 |
|
|
|||||
If you’re a millennial or simply a fan of sci-fi, you likely remember 2010’s smash hit Inception, written and directed by Christopher Nolan. The story follows Dom Cobb (played by Leonardo DiCaprio), a professional thief who specializes in stealing privileged secrets from peoples minds while they dream. He uses advanced technology to enter another persons subconscious while theyre asleep and take whatever information he wants. The problem DiCaprio’s character faces is that the line between reality and dreams become blurred, making it increasingly difficult to tell whats real. In many ways, especially for retail investors, that’s a picture of the modern market. A place where rumor, rhetoric, and anticipation can impact price action in unpredictable ways. When you add the ever-changing realities of our current political and macro-economic environment, the average Joe trader can feel like the odds are stacked against him. But there is one set of data that more often than not, cuts through the noise. And that’s the options market. OPTIONS PROVIDE ACCURATE VIEWS Options give us a more accurate picture of what the people who move the markets are actually thinking. Institutions and hedge funds make their living on positive returns. And while stocks can often be manipulated, options have a shorter shelf-life and are way less forgiving. And it’s there, in the nuances of the “put to call ratios” of the options market, that AI is quietly giving retail traders a helping hand. Let me give you an example. OnOctober 9th, our Prospero.ai AI-driven Net Options Sentiment (a gauge of real-time, market options data and positioning), plunged from a bullish 33 to an ominously bearish zero in a matter of minutes. No headline. No Fed speech. No earnings shock. Just a massive bearish shift, seemingly out of nowhere. We saw the shift and sent an alert to our followers on X. At 10:30 a.m. the next morning, the numbers were still sitting at zero. We issued another alert warning that a possible market reversal might be brewing. Thirty minutes later, without any warning, President Trump posted on social media about a looming trade war with China. The market fell off a cliff. Several fintech influencers noticed our early warnings and brought positive attention to it on X. Some were skeptical. @cyberdaddy mused, “Today’s selloff was 100% correlated to the China tariff threats, which were impossible for any person or algo to forsee.this was 100% random luck. But the reality is that this wasnt the first time our signals picked up on a major market move before it happened. The same pattern appeared in February when we saw SPY Net Options Sentiment lead the market down. We warned about it (Dont Trim the Hedges) on March 3rd, just a few days before a historic market correction on Liberation Day. Twice now, the data revealed massive bearish options positioning before a drop in price. WHATS REALLY HAPPENING? That brings us to an important question. If the data is picking up on signals before theyre public, whats really happening? Is AI becoming smart enough to sense fear before humans can express it? Or is information, intentional or not, pulsing through back channels in a way once thought unimaginable 20 years ago? In earlier eras, Wall Street’s most valuable information moved in whispers and was confined to smoke-filled rooms and the back nine of golf courses. Today, that same information moves with lightning speed through social media threads, encrypted group chats, and algorithmic pattern recognition. One whisper in the right chat room can ripple through a thousand terminals before the SEC finishes its coffee. A policymakers assistant, a janitor overhearing a senator’s conversation as he informs a colleague of a military contract, or heightened tensions in the White House can all lead to that same outcome. The lines between what’s public, private, and privileged are dissolving. So maybe the question isnt whether AI is getting smarter or if those in the know are getting bolder. Maybe it’s that AI is hearing the market’s whispers more clearly than ever before. Cyberdaddy backed off his protest of the validity of our system: After doing some more research, I found that the de-risking and drop in options sentiment likely occurred for logical reasons that your model picked up on. The China export-control announcement on October 8th probably drove much of that defensive positioning among people paying attention to geopolitics (which major firms obviously do). My apologies for jumping the gun, I was wrong. THE CRUX OF THE ISSUE This is the crux of the matter. Did a shift in the perception of risk regarding the situation with China lead to a massive hedge or bet against the QQQ (an index including 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth)? Or were some more in the know about the political winds changing? How could we even begin to differentiate between the two? By the way, the word inceptionisn’t just a movie title, it’s a word that means the beginning, or start of something brand new. And maybe we are at a point of inception. Because for the first time, AI isn’t just leveling the playing field; it’s changing who gets to play on that field in the first place. George Kailas is CEO of Prospero.ai.
Category:
E-Commerce
A wild winter storm was expected to bring strong winds, heavy snow and frigid temperatures to the Great Lakes and Northeast on Tuesday, a day after a bomb cyclone barreled across the northern U.S. and left tens thousands of customers without power.The storm that hit parts of the Plains and Great Lakes on Monday brought sharply colder air, strong winds and a mix of snow, ice and rain that led to treacherous travel. Forecasters said it intensified quickly enough to meet the criteria of a bomb cyclone, a system that strengthens rapidly as pressure drops.Nationwide, more than 153,000 customers were without power early Tuesday, more than a third of them in Michigan, according to Poweroutage.us.As Monday’s storm moved into Canada, the National Weather Service predicted more inclement weather conditions for the Eastern U.S, including quick bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds known as snow squalls.New York Gov. Kathy Hochul warned that whiteout conditions were expected Tuesday in parts of the state, including the Syracuse-metro area.“If you’re in an impacted area, please avoid all unnecessary travel,” she said in a post on the social media platform X.Snow piled up quickly in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula on Monday, where as much as 2 feet (60 centimeters) fell in some areas, according to the National Weather Service. Meteorologist Ryan Metzger said additional snow was expected in the coming days, although totals would be far lighter.Waves on Lake Superior that were expected to reach 20 feet (6 meters) Monday sent all but one cargo ship into harbors for shelter, according to MarineTraffic.com. Weather forecasting on the lakes has improved greatly since the Edmund Fitzgerald sank in 1975 after waves were predicted at up to 16 feet (4.8 meters).The fierce winds on Lake Erie sent water surging toward the basin’s eastern end near Buffalo, New York, while lowering water on the western side in Michigan to expose normally submerged lakebed even the wreck of a car and a snowmobile.Kevin Aldrich, 33, a maintenance worker from Monroe, Michigan, said he has never seen the lake recede so much and was surprised on Monday to spot the remnants of old piers dating back to the 1830s. He posted photos on social media of wooden pilings sticking up several feet from the muck.“Where those are at would typically be probably 12 feet deep,” he said. “We can usually drive our boat over them.”Dangerous wind chills plunged as low as minus 30 F (minus 34 C) across parts of North Dakota and Minnesota on Monday. And in northeast West Virginia, rare, nearly hurricane-force winds were recorded on a mountain near Dolly Sods, according to the National Weather Service.In Iowa, after blizzard conditions eased by Monday morning, high winds continued blowing fallen snow across roadways, keeping more than 200 miles (320 kilometers) of Interstate 35 closed. State troopers reported dozens of crashes during the storm, including one that killed a person.On the West Coast, the National Weather Service warned that moderate to strong Santa Ana winds were expected in parts of Southern California through Tuesday, raising concerns about downed trees in areas where soils have been saturated by recent storms. Two more storms were forecast later this week, with rain on New Year’s Day potentially soaking the Rose Parade in Pasadena for the first time in about two decades. Associated Press writers Julie Walker in New York; Corey Williams in Detroit; Margery Beck in Omaha, Nebraska; Susan Haigh in Norwich, Connecticut; and Becky Bohrer in Juneau, Alaska, contributed. Leah Willingham and Jeff Martin, Associated Press
Category:
E-Commerce
Shares opened mixed in Europe on Tuesday after slipping in Asia as some regional markets wrapped up trading for the year.Crude oil prices edged higher and gold and silver resumed their ascent. U.S. futures were flat.In Tokyo, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi rang out the final session for 2025 in a traditional year-end ceremony.“By realizing a Japanese economy that earns the trust of investors around the world, we will create a virtuous cycle in which global capital flows into Japan,” Takaichi said.The benchmark Nikkei 225 shed 0.4% to 50,339.48, its first year-end close above 50,000. It ended 2025 up nearly 25%.With just two trading days left before the year ends, most big investors have closed out their positions and volume has been thin. Most global markets will be closed Thursday, New Year’s day, and some will also be closed Wednesday and Friday.In early European trading, Germany’s DAX was nearly unchanged at 24,348.38. Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1% to 9.876.73, while the CAC 40 in Paris had barely budged at 8,112.37.Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.9% to 25,854.60, while the Shanghai Composite index was virtually unchanged at 3,965.51.In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1% lower to 8,717.10.South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.2% to 4,214.17, while Taiwan’s Taiex lost 0.4%.India’s Sensex was down less than 0.1%.On Monday, stocks slipped in quiet trading on Wall Street. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%. It’s still up more than 17% for the year and it remains on track for its eighth monthly gain in a row.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.5%.Big technology stocks with outsized valuations were among the heaviest weights on the market. Nvidia and several other companies focusing on AI or benefiting heavily from the developing technology have become some of the most valuable in the world.Nvidia fell 1.2% and Broadcom fell 0.8%.Tech shares have wobbled recently as investors have grown skeptical over the whether the eventual payoff will justify hefty investments in artificial intelligence.The price of gold gained 0.7% early Tuesday after falling 4.6% the day before. It’s up about 64% for the year.Silver prices gained 4.4% after slumping 8.7% on Monday. They have more than doubled in 2025.The precious metals fell back on Monday when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, one of the largest trading floors for commodities, asked traders to put up more cash to make bets on precious metals.Treasury yields fell in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.11% from 4.13% late Friday.Treasury yields have fallen significantly from the start of the year, after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate to help counter a slowing jobs market. That risks heating up inflation that is already stubbornly above the central bank’s target rate of 2%. Interest rate cuts could boost the economy by making loans less expensive, but that benefit could be nullified by rising inflation stunting economic growth.In other dealings early Tuesday, U.S. crude oil gained 14 cents to $58.22 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, picked up 12 cents to $61.61 per barrel.The U.S. dollar slipped to 156.00 Japanese yen from 156.05 yen. The euro fell to $1.1769 from $1.1774. AP video journalist Mayuko Ono in Tokyo contributed to this report. Elaine Kurtenbach, AP Business Writer
Category:
E-Commerce
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||