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At 3:20 a.m. on January 8, Steve Gibson and his wife were jolted awake by a phone call: the Eaton fire was approaching their home in Altadena, California, and they had to evacuate. We left in about 15 minutes, Gibson says. So we only took our passports, our insurance papers, three pairs of underwear, and our little dog, Cantinflas. They thought that theyd be able to come back within a few hours. But they soon learned that their houseand their entire blockhad been destroyed. They spent the next few weeks moving from short-term rental to short-term rental, and finally moved into an apartment, though they knew that insurance would only cover the cost temporarily. Then they faced the next challenge: what would it take to rebuild their home? Cleared residential lots, with the San Gabriel Mountains in the background, in Altadena, California on August 21, 2025, [Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images] More than 10 months after the L.A. fires, the rebuilding process in the fire zone is painfully slow. In Altadena, where more than 5,000 houses burned in the Eaton fire, only a few hundred are currently being rebuilt. (Only one, an ADU, has been completed as of mid-November.) But someincluding Gibsonsare moving faster than others because homeowners have turned to prefab construction. Prefab companies like Villa, Cover, and Samara are all working on projects in the fire zone, as well as in the nearby burn areas in Pacific Palisades and Malibu. Some companies that initially focused on making backyard ADUs have expanded into full single-family prefab homes in the area, helping fire survivors rebuild more quickly. And as more homeowners choose prefab after the disaster, the approach could become a more mainstream option for new construction, even outside fire-prone areas. Before the fire, I had never thought of a prefab home, Gibson says. The small house that he and his wife lost, where theyd lived for 24 years, was built in the 1920s. Theyd always lived in traditional homes. But when they started to research the timelines for a new traditional build, they were told it would take two or three years. A prefab home, in theory, could take months. [Photo: David Esquivel/UCLA] A faster way to build The couple started working with a company called Cover, which builds components like wall panels in a factory in the nearby city of Gardena, and then assembles the pieces on the building site. After getting permits, building all of the parts for Gibsons house took roughly a month in the factory; assembling it on the lot is taking a little more than two months. Gibson and his wife hope to move in before the end of the year. Top left: Gibson’s house, under construction. Lower right: a rendering of the final construction. [Images: Steve Gibson, Cover] Prefab is much faster because we move most of the complexity into the factory, says Alexis Rivas, CEO of Cover. Our wall panels, floor panels, roof panels are made in the factory with insulation, with waterproofing, with a lot of the mechanical, electrical, plumbing, already fabricated. And then what’s happening on site is primarily assembly work. [Image: courtesy Cover] The design process can also happen quickly. While some companies, like Cover, offer more customization, others offer preset designs. And while traditional construction moves in a strict sequence, and a delay from one subcontractor slows down the whole process, factory-built homes run multiple production lines in parallel. [Image: courtesy Cover] Pouring the foundation and other site work can also happen at the same time. Insidethe factory, each step is also more efficient. Instead of having to reach at an awkward angle to install a duct in a ceiling, for example, a work station is set up ergonomically, and the work can happen faster. Right now, relatively few homes have started construction in the fire zone. But more than 2,300 are at some stage of the permitting process, and next year, building a traditional house will also face the additional challenge of trying to find construction crews. [Photo: Villa Homes] “If you fast-forward six months, nine months, 12 months down the road, with a lot of construction activity, the labor base of trades and subcontractors is going to be really, really, really stretched,” says Sean Roberts, CEO of Villa, another prefab company working with homeowners in Altadena and Pacific Palisades. [Photo: Villa Homes] “That’s going to make building traditionally on site really hard, if you can even do it. That will drive cost up. It will drive speeds way slower. It will create a lot of uncertainty. So our approach is do it in the factory. The benefit of that is the amount of labor that we need on site in Altadena basically acts as a force multiplier.” Villa takes a different approach than Cover, building modules that arrive fully constructed rather than flat panels. “The blinds are on the windows, the appliances are init comes pretty much close to done,” Roberts says. [Photo: Christopher Nelson/courtesy LA4LA] A range of options There are a wide range of prefab options for homeowners to pick from, both in terms of style and price. Because many homeowners aren’t necessarily familiar with prefab housing, UCLA’s cityLAB, a design research organization, has temporarily installed a showcase of six different homes on an empty lot in Altadena. “Our sense was that folks are sort of arriving at this conversation with a bias,” says Ryan Conroy, cityLAB’s director of architecture. “Manufactured and prefab homes carry a sort of stigma often that doesn’t track with the quality of the building construction or the diverse architectural styles they come in, and really just the way technology has changed. In one sense, that needs to be seen for itself: folks need to be able to walk through. They need to understand the quality and the livability of some of the homes.” [Photo: Villa Homes] Many options, like Cover’s, have a modern aesthetic inspired by California’s Eichler and Case Study homes. Others, including some models that Villa designed specifically for Altadena, nod to the traditional 1920s Craftsman homes that were common in the neighborhood. Some are higher end. Villa’s are affordable, with the base cost before site work starting as low as $147,000. “These are simple homes,” says Roberts. “These are not high-end, luxury builds. But they are representative of what the neighborhood was.” [Photo: Villa Homes] The more affordable options can help homeowners who don’t have enough insurance coverage to rebuild an exact replica of the home they lost. In a couple of cases, prefab home companies are donating some homes to fire victims who couldn’t otherwise afford to rebuild. Many of the options are more sustainable than what was lost. Cosmic, a startup that uses a mobile “micro factory” to build homes with robots, is building ultra-efficient all-electric homes in the fire zone. Like other new construction in California, everything comes with solar on the roof to help reduce emissions and electric bills. The new builds are also safer in fires. Cover, for example, builds with steel instead of wood. Some projects are also using prefab to rebuild multifamily buildings. Beacon Housing, for example, recently got a grant from the Altadena Builds Back Foundation and Pasadena Community Foundation to build a small prefab bungalow court with 14 units for low-income residents. The bungalows will be built by Clayton Homes, which makes manufactured housingwhat used to be known in the past as a trailer home, though the quality is very different now. The UCLA team also created a guide that homeowners can use to learn about relative costs and timelines and how prefab construction works, including the fact that it can offer more certainty. “I think what’s as attractive as this sort of expedited format is actually just knowing exactly when it will be done, which doesn’t necessarily track with traditional construction,” Conroy says. [Photo: David Esquivel/UCLA] A long road to rebuildbut a turning point for the industry Even with faster construction timelines, prefab homes still face challenges. Although the local government has tried to streamline the post-fire paperwork processfor example, L.A. County set up a one-stop center for permitting in Altadenabuilders told me that they still face bureaucratic delays. On some blocks, depending on how much infrastructure was destroyed in the fire, homeowners might face other delays connecting to utilities. Others may need to do more work to remediate their lot to make it safe to build. But several prefab projects are underway in Altadena, and it’s likely that many more people will choose that path. “This is a multiyear effort here,” says Roberts. “But doing at least some portion of the rebuild with factory-built homes is going to help get the community back up on its feet a heck of a lot faster than doing everything traditionally and on site.” As it expands, it could help the industry become more mainstream. “This feels like a catalytic moment for the industry,” says UCLA’s Conroy. “More than anything, its a chance to pull prefab into a building scale that actually matches how infill gets built across Southern California. Before the fires, prefab was basically split: either a single ADU box, or big multifamily projects with enough repetition to justify the factory work. Now we’re seeing builders get comfortable using prefab for larger single-family homes and smaller multifamily projects, and that familiarity is what will push prefab beyond the burn area.”
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E-Commerce
As I uploaded a 1940s photo of my grandpa Max and hit a few buttons in Googles Veo 3 video generator, I saw a familiar family photo transform from black and white to color. Then, my grandpa stepped out of the photo and walked confidently toward the camera, his army uniform perfectly pressed as his arms swung at the sides of his lanky frame. This is the kind of thing AI lets you do nowvirtually bring back the dead. As a hilarious Saturday Night Live sketch this weekend highlighted, though, just because we can reanimate our departed loved ones, that doesnt necessarily mean we should. Grilling the dog The sketch, which The Atlantic has already called SNLs Black Mirror Moment, features Ashley Padilla as an aging grandmother in a nursing home. Her family membersplayed by Sarah Sherman and Marcello Hernándezvisit her on Thanksgiving, and use an AI photo app to bring her old family photos to life as short videos. At first, things go well. Padillas character marvels over a black and white image of her father waving as he stands in front of a spinning ferris wheel. But then, things go hilariously, predictably wrong. A photo of family members at a barbecue turns into a horror scene when the fictional AI app has Padillas father (played by host Glen Powell) roast the family dog, which happens to have no head. As other photos come to life, Padillas father pays a bowling buddy to perform a lewd act, and in a baby photo, her mothers torso splits from her body and floats around the frame as a nuclear bomb explodes in the background. The sketch is hilarious because its so relatable. Anyone who has played with AI video generators knows that they can make delightfully wonky assumptions about the laws of physicsoften with spectacular results. In my testing of AI video generator RunwayML, for example, I asked the model to create a video of a playful kitten at sunset. Things start out cute enough, until the kitten splits in two, with its front half attempting to exit stage-right as its back half continues adorably cavorting around. Show me the movements Video generators make these errors because of the way theyre trained. Whereas a text-based AI model can learn by reading essentially every book, website, and other piece of textual data ever published, the amount of training-ready video content is far more limited. Most AI video generators train on videos from social media platforms like YouTube. That means theyre great at creating the kinds of videos that often appear on those platforms. As Ive demonstrated before, if you want people knocking over wedding cakes or having heated arguments with their roommates, video generators like Veo and Sora excel at making them. For less commonly posted scenes, though, the available training data is far more limited. Most online videos, for example, show interesting things happening. People rarely post hour-long clips of themselves casually walking around (or to SNLs example, holding a baby or grilling a hot dog) on YouTube or Instagram. Those videos would be so terminally boring that no person would want to watch them. Yet copious amounts of video of these kinds of boring, everyday activities are exactly what AI companies need to properly train their video generators. This has created a fascinating market for such clips. Companies like Waffle Video are popping up to serve the need, paying creators to film themselves doing things like chopping vegetables or writing specific words on pieces of paper for AI training. Until AI companies can get their hands on more videos of these kinds of mundane actions, though, AI video generators will struggle to mimic them. Ironically, video generators are currently great at showing fanciful, dramatic actions. Ask them to make the kinds of everyday scenes you might find in an old black and white family photo, though, and you get Fido on the barbie. Reanimate grandma? All that brings us to the question: should you use todays AI tools to reanimate your dead loved ones? My best advice: wait a bit. AI video tech is advancing incredibly quickly. The first tools that added movement to family photoslike Deep Nostalgia from My Heritage, which launched in 2021used machine learning to perform their wizardry. The tech felt revolutionary at the time. Today, it looks primitive compared to the full motion scenes like the one of my Veo-animated grandpa. And even with those advances, Veo and its ilk are still in their avocado chair moment. Image generators have improved tremendously as their creators have gotten better at training them. Video generators will see similarly vast improvementsespecially as AI companies invest millions in buying bespoke training data of everyday movements. Personally, I brought photo of my grandpa to life because I thought the real Grandpa Max would find it amusing. Ive resisted reanimating photos of more recently departed loved ones, though, for many of the reasons implicit in SNLs sketch. Family photos are intimate things. Its nice to see your late loved one smile and wave at you. Seeing them split in two or explode in a nuclear fireball, though, would be disturbingand something you couldnt unsee once youve conjured it up from the depths of Sora or Veos silicon brain. Until AI models can be trusted to avoid these kinds of distributing, random visual detours, we shouldnt trust them with our most prized memories. A splitting kitten is amusing. A splitting grandma, less so.
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E-Commerce
When entrepreneurs list their principal reasons for launching a company, small business owners often cite being their own boss, flexibility in setting their working hours, and turning a commercial concept into reality as their main motivations. Now, new data identifies another incentive that may convince future entrepreneurs to take the plunge. According to a recent analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the average self-employed person earns significantly more income during their career than people who work for someone else. However, the reports findings also note the widely varying levels of income among small business owners, and the length of time usually required before stronger earnings start flowing in. Those details may lead some less enterprising prospective entrepreneurs to stick with punching a clock after all. The analysis by the Minneapolis Fed differs from most research on small business owners, which often relies heavily on survey responses. The shifting makeup of participants in those inquiries often produces widely contrasting results, creating what Minneapolis Fed authors likened to the parable of the blind men and an elephant: Each poll was essentially touching only one part of the body, and led to researchers drawing different and incomplete conclusions. To establish a more complete picture of the nations entrepreneurs, the Minneapolis Fed used U.S. tax and Social Security Administration data from 2000 to 2015. That allowed it to determine the income those small business owners collectively generated for themselves, and identify why they stuck it out with companies that were often slow to reach profitability. And that wasnt due to setting their own hours. (W)e find that self-employed individuals have significantly higher income and steeper income growth profiles than paid-employed peers with similar characteristics, the report said, while also refuting frequent survey results that suggest many entrepreneurs stay in business for the perks of not having to answer to a boss. Contrary to earlier studies based on surveys plagued by underrepresentation in the right tail of the income distribution, we find that non-pecuniary benefits of self-employment are not substantial when considering the source of most business income, it said. What that means, in non-economist-speak, is that many entrepreneurs earn up to 70% more than people working for other employers over their careers, with their income increasing considerably faster than paid workers. That winds up vastly outweighing the advantages surveys often identify of founders setting their own work schedules or getting to ask employees to fetch their coffee. The study found that during the 15-year period, a 25-year-old entrepreneur earned on average about $27,000 per year in 2012 dollars, while an employee of the same age made $29,000. About five years later, that income disparity had typically reversed, and then continued growing larger in small-business owners favor. By age 55, our estimate is an average (entrepreneur) income of $134,000 in 2012 dollarsmuch higher than the estimate of $79,000 for the paid employed, the study said. It added that gap was probably even larger before government agencies adjusted small-business income declarations by 14% to 46% to account for presumed underreporting. These dierences in profiles for the self- and paid-employed would be even more striking if we were to (re)adjust reported incomes to account for business income underreporting. Not every small-business owner winds up earning as much as people working for salaries, howeveror as much as their more successful peers. The study said about 80% of the total income of entrepreneurs it identified was generated by people earning $100,000 annually or more. That means a lot of small-business owners fared less well than the more affluent minority at the top. As a result, the authors said in wonky terms, a minority of self-employed people made even less than workers working for someone else. IRS data shows that many of the primarily self-employed earned less over the sample years than paid-employed peers with similar characteristics, but in the aggregate this subgroup has a much lower share of the total income than those that earned more than their peers, it noted. The Minneapolis Fed noted some other interesting observations in its findings. One was that many entrepreneurs continued working salaried jobs, or had other income coming in as they supported their still unprofitable new ventures. Those supporting funds improved the cohorts overall positive revenue figures, even during early lean years. In other words, when starting a new business, owners rely on other sources of labor earnings, through either paid employment or other business enterprises, it said. Thus, even though most businesses have losses, few owners have negative individual incomes. Another significant detail was what the authors said was their use of official data to create a more precise collective financial portrait of entrepreneurscontrasting the results of many surveys that may simplify the motives and activities of limited samples of small-company owners. (T)he literature on entrepreneurship has an array of narratives, describing the typical business owner in many possible ways: as a gig worker seeking flexible arrangements, a misfit avoiding unemployment spells, an inventor seeking venture capital, a tax dodger misreporting income, it said, before noting its own use of official income statistics collected from millions of entrepreneurs. This data provides new insights into the central questions of the entrepreneurship literature and will hopefully prove useful for researchers interested in calibrating models of self-employment and business formation. Bruce Crumley This article originally appeared on Fast Companys sister publication, Inc. Inc. is the voice of the American entrepreneur. We inspire, inform, and document the most fascinating people in business: the risk-takers, the innovators, and the ultra-driven go-getters that represent the most dynamic force in the American economy.
Category:
E-Commerce
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