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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lamberts ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Last month, in an address to investors, D.R. Horton CEO Paul Romanowski said the spring 2025 selling season is getting off to a slower-than-usual start for the nation’s largest homebuilder. This years spring selling season started slower than expected as potential homebuyers have been more cautious due to continued affordability constraints and declining consumer confidence, Romanowski said on the company’s earnings call. It isnt just D.R. Horton. “Demand at the start of this springs selling season was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities,” wrote Jeffrey Mezger, CEO of KB Home, in the companys Q1 2025 earnings report. “In mid-February, we took steps to reposition our communities to offer the most compelling value, and buyers responded favorably to these adjustments.” Last quarter, Lennar spent the equivalent of 13% of home sales on buyer incentivesup from 1.5% in Q2 2022 at the height of the pandemic housing boom. A 13% incentive on a $400,000 home translates to $52,000 in incentives. This softer housing demand is causing unsold inventory to tick up. Indeed, since the pandemic housing boom fizzled out, the number of unsold completed U.S. new single-family homes has been rising: April 2018: 61,000 April 2019: 77,000 April 2020: 78,000 April 2021: 33,000 April 2022: 34,000 April 2023: 69,000 April 2024: 89,000 April 2025: 117,000 The April figure (117,000 unsold completed new homes) published last week is the highest level since July 2009 (126,000). Lets take a closer look at the data to better understand what this could mean. ResiClubs Finished Homes Supply Index puts the number of unsold completed new single-family homes into historic context. The index is one simple calculation: The number of unsold completed U.S. new single-family homes divided by the annualized rate of U.S. single-family housing starts. A higher index score indicates a softer national new construction market with greater supply slack, while a lower index score signifies a tighter new construction market with less supply slack. If you look at unsold completed single-family new builds as a share of single-family housing starts (see chart below), it still shows we’ve gained slack; however, it puts us closer to pre-pandemic 2019 levels than the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis. While the U.S. Census Bureau doesn’t give us a greater market-by-market breakdown on these unsold new builds, we have a good idea where they are based on where total active inventory homes for sale (including existing) has spiked above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Most of those areas are in the Sun Belt around the Gulf. Some builders are experiencing pricing pressure, particularly in major housing markets like Florida and Texas, where resale inventory remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}}))}(); Big picture: Theres greater slack in the new-construction market now than a few years ago, giving buyers some leverage in certain markets to negotiate better deals with homebuilders.
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E-Commerce
Theres nothing spooky about ghostworking, apart from how popular it may be right now. The newly coined term describes a set of behaviors meant to create a façade of productivity at the office, like walking around carrying a notebook as a prop or typing random words just to generate the sound of a clacking keyboard. (Some might call this Costanza-ing, after Jason Alexanders example on a memorable episode of Seinfeld.) Pretending to be busy at the office is not something workers recently invented, of course, but it appears to be reaching critical mass. According to a new survey, more than half of all U.S. employees now admit to regularly ghostworking. That statistic doesnt necessarily mean, however, that the American workforce is mired in permanent purgatory. Conducted by top resume-building service Resume Now, the report is based on a survey of 1,127 U.S. workers this past February. The results show that 58% of employees admit to regularly pretending to work, while another 34% claim they merely do so from time to time. What might be most striking about the reports findings, though, are some of the elaborate methods workers use to perform productivity. Apparently, 15% of U.S. employees have faked a phone call for a supervisors benefit, while 12% have scheduled fake meetings to pad out their calendars, and 22% have used their computer keyboards as pianos to make the music of office ambiance. As for what these employees are actually doing while pretending to crush deliverables, in many cases its hunting for other jobs. The survey shows that 92% of employees have job-searched in some way while on the clock, with 55% admitting they do so regularly. In fact, some of those fake calls employees have made while walking around the office may have been on the way to making real calls to recruiters, since 20% of those surveyed have taken such calls at work. While ghostworking may overlap in some ways with the quiet quitting trend that emerged in 2023, theres a clear distinction between them. It hinges on the definition of the word perform. Someone who is quiet quitting has essentially checked out of their job mentally and is performing the bare minimum of work necessary, says Keith Spencer, a career expert at Resume Now. They are flying under the radar and operating in a way that avoids any attention. Ghostworking, on the other hand, is a performance. It involves actively projecting an appearance of busyness without actually engaging in meaningful work. If quiet quitting was a response to pandemic-era burnout and an abrupt surge in return to office mandates, ghostworking appears to be a response to, well, everything that has happened since. Even before the newly created DOGE began decimating some government and contractor offices around the country in late-January, the waves of layoffs starting in 2023 have continued to gain momentum in the tech world and beyond. Unemployment is still fairly low at 4.2%, not counting those workers who are functionally unemployed, but workers everywhere are worried about a recession. Meanwhile, the drive to incorporate AI into workflow at most companies has created a palpable sense of uncertainty around exactly how to perform jobs in the present, and whether those jobs will even exist in the future. Its no wonder a recent LinkedIn Workforce Confidence Survey found that U.S. workers’ faith in their job security and ability to find new work has plummeted to its lowest level since April 2020, during the onset of the pandemic. Adding to this decline in morale and engagement is a recent decrease in clarity of expectations. According to a Gallup poll from January, just 46% of employees clearly know whats expected of them at work these days, down 10 points from a high of 56% in March 2020. Many workers now live with the tacit understanding that they will have to work harder than ever to avoid getting caught in an impending cull, but without quite being aligned with management on what that work entails. Its in this kind of office environment that ghostworking seems to thrive. The workforce is currently under immense pressure to appear productive, even when its counterintuitive to actual productivity, Spencer says. These behaviors point to a deeper disconnect between how productivity is perceived and how its actually delivered. In many cases, the appearance of working has become just as important as the work itself. The Resume Now survey indicates that 69% of employees believe theyd be more productive if their manager monitored their screen time. However, this invasive approach to task visibility seems destined to backfire. A 2023 report from analytics firm Visier found that employees faced with surveillance tools were more than twice (and in some cases three times) as likely to commit the most egregious performative behaviors, like keeping a laptop screen awake while not working, asking someone to do a task for them, and exaggerating when giving a status update. Even if surveillance did prove effective against ghostworking, it would be an attack on its symptoms, rather than the root causes. The ongoing return to office resurgence has left many employees feeling like theyre working inside of a fishbowl, right as other external factors have made their jobs more challenging and less stable. Some data shows that workers are just as productive while working from home as at the office, while other studies find workers are even more productive at home. Still, for some leaders, a full office humming with deskside chats that could possibly be brainstorming sessions is the only productivity metric that matters. Employees sensing a greater need to broadcast that theyre getting work done than to actually do the work at hand suggests managers may be rewardig performative work. Whatever the solution to the ghostworking trend might be for any individual company, it will likely have to come from those managers shifting their thinking. As Spencer notes, When managers offer more trust, flexibility, and space to do meaningful workinstead of focusing on constant visibilityteams are more likely to stay engaged and actually deliver.
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E-Commerce
The fastest-growing car brand in the U.K. is BYD, the Chinese automaker behind electric cars like the new 16,000 ($21,600) Surf. Last month, the brand outsold Tesla in Europe for the first time. BYD is also the fastest-growing car brand in Brazil, where EV sales jumped up 85% last year. In the capital city of Brasilia, BYD now outsells all other cars, whether theyre gas or electric. In Nepal, where seven out of every 10 cars imported last year was an EV, BYD’s electric models vie with those from Tata, an Indian brand. In Thailand, another Chinese company called Changan is quickly gaining market share with its electric cars. The world is going electric: The International Energy Agency recently projected that one in four cars sold this year will be an EV. But the U.S. is lagging behind, and the Trump administrations assault on EVs will slow down the industry more. That doesn’t bode well for the future of American automakers. Probably the most dire scenario is that the U.S. becomes somewhat isolated in an idiosyncratic market, with lots of big pickups and SUVs that don’t sell in any other market, and that are still predominantly fossil fuel, says John Paul MacDuffie, a management professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. And we’re not exposed to competition from some of the new manufacturers or some of the new technologiesnot only electric but autonomous and connected. China already had a long head start Even before Trumpwho has said that Bidens support for EVs was a Marxist hoaxAmerican car companies were behind their Chinese counterparts on the path to electrification. One factor was China’s continuous support, which started more than 15 years ago. There were changes to the policy and subsidies, but generally it [was clear] that the government thinks this is good technology, says Ilaria Mazzocco, deputy director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a bipartisan think tank. So if youre going to buy an electric vehicle, its not like in two years things are going to change dramatically. Before China started pouring billions into the sector and made EV competitiveness a national priority, BYD was already innovative and lobbying for government support. The company, which had been founded in 1995 as a battery manufacturer, was entrepreneurial and ready to take up the challenge, Mazzocco says. Electric cars also got early support in the U.S.Tesla got a $465 million low-interest loan from the Department of Energy in 2009, benefitted from EV tax credits for consumers, and got a major boost from Californias zero-emission vehicle credits. But Chinas support went farther and faster. Around 60% of new car models sold in China are now electric, five times more than what’s available in the U.S., according to the IEA. From the beginning, Chinese automakers were laser-focused on the cost of EVs. By 2023, around 60% of electric cars in China were cheaper than their gas equivalents without subsidies, the IEA says. In many cases, the technology is more advanced than EV tech from some Western automakers, as Chinese companies race to improve batteries and software. Chinese companies are 30% faster than legacy automakers at developing new EV models, according to one analysis. Ford CEO Jim Farley admitted last year that hed been driving an electric car from Xiaomia Chinese smartphone manufacturer that started making EVsand said he doesnt want to give it up. “There’s no doubt” the future is electric Still, American automakers know that their future is electric. Theres no doubt about it, says Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, the former chief economist at Ford. Companies have already spent billions on the transition. But right now, the legacy automakers face cost challenges. Engineering new batteries and new vehicles obviously has a steep capital cost, versus the depreciated capital costs for continuing to make internal combustion engine cars. And although EV sales grew faster last year than gas car sales, they aren’t growing as quickly as automakers hoped. Ive done the math, Hughes-Cromwick says. Its not great right now for our domestic manufacturers, because theyve got low volume but high fixed costs on the new technology, and low capital costs and high volume on the old tech. As more EVs sell, companies can get to cost and pricing parity. Policies could help make the transition easier, she says, such as keeping tax credits in place for EVs. Instead, the federal government is pushing hard in the other direction. Trump froze billions in spending on EV charging infrastructure, and blocked subsidies for factories making batteries, despite the fact that those factories were creating American jobs. Congress is trying to get rid of the consumer tax credit and add a new annual fee for EV owners (though the fee is meant to replace the gas tax, the total cost would be higher than drivers with gas cars currently spend on it). Congress is also trying to block Californias plans to transition to zero-emissions vehicles. Tariffs have added to the economic pressure. Despite all of this, the long-term strategy for U.S. automakers isnt likely to change. The time horizon for product cycles, facility planning, and supply chain planning is very long, says MacDuffie. Theyre global companies, so theyre not just planning for the U.S. market. I have been predicting that U.S. companies will continues to pursue a long-term strategy which is premised on electrification hitting most markets and most products. I think it would take years of a hostile economic and policy environment for them to back away from that in a big way. It’s too early to count out American automakers, Hughes-Cromwick says, noting that they could pull forward on software, for example. But as Trump pushes for anti-EV policy, companies are slowing some electric investments, and are likely to keep falling behind as Chinese companies race forward. A year ago, the IEA predicted that EVs would hit 50% of car sales in the U.S. by 2030; the agency has now revised that to 20%. With steep tariffs keeping cheap Chinese EVs out of the U.S., theres less incentive for American automakers to innovate as quickly on electric vehicles. The current tax bill also reduces spport for EV battery makers and slashes funding for research and development of new battery tech through the Department of Energy. Meanwhile, Chinese EVs are spreading around the rest of the world. Last year, BYD surpassed Tesla in global vehicle sales. BYD’s stock price has climbed around 59% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since the beginning of 2025, while Tesla’s has declined around 11% on the Nasdaq, despite some recovery in recent weeks. In Brazil, BYD is now rebuilding a former Ford factory, on a street that a local politician wants to rename from Henry Ford Avenue to BYD Avenue. Once consumers have access to these vehicles, theyre really interested, says Mazzocco. For a growing middle class in emerging countries, their first car might be a Chinese electric vehicle.
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E-Commerce
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