Retirement saving requires key decisions: when to start, how much to save, and where to invest. The investing decision has drawn more attention as government regulators work to open 401(k) plans to alternative assets such as private market investments.Below, we compare the paths of two hypothetical retirement savers and their outcomes.
A tale of two retirement savers
Laura and JR are two 25-year-olds newly employed at the same company, in the same role.
Step 1: Deciding to Save
On her first day at work, Laura committed 10% of her $75,000 salary to her 401(k). That earned her company’s 3% annual match (it matches 50% up to 6%), and 13% in total savings. She still had room in her budget for weekends filled with activities.JR was more worried about now. Rather than putting money into a 401(k) he wouldn’t touch for decades, he enjoyed his $75,000 salary. Five years later, JR began to build his nest egg. He opted for the minimum contribution rate to qualify for the company match, contributing 6% with a 3% match.
Step 2: How to Invest
Laura and JR’s employer offered many investment vehicles, including target-date funds. One invested only in public stocks and bonds; the other kept a 15% allocation to private equity and private credit across the glide path.Laura preferred the public-only target-date fund for its simplicity and transparency. JR was also drawn to the target-date options and their ease of use. However, he went with the private market option since it promised higher returns, and to make up for his late start. He figured he could quickly recover five years of missed contributions, given that he had 35 years until retirement.
From earnings years to retirement
Laura and JR both rose steadily to senior management positions. Their career progression and their salaries stayed in tandem. By the time they were turning 65 and approaching retirement, each was earning $178,620 a year. There had been no changes to their 401(k) contribution rates or their company’s matching formula. As Laura and JR prepared to retire, they reviewed their 401(k)s.For JR, the target-date fund with private markets had paid off. Over 35 years of investing, the fund delivered an annualized return of 8.9%, compared with 8.4% for the public-only option. This left him with a balance of about $2 million. Combined with Social Security, JR felt that he could enjoy retirement without the risk of outliving his savings.The public-only TDF underperformed compared with the private markets TDF, but Laura didn’t mind. Over 40 years of investing, her 401(k) account balance grew to more than $3 million. By starting earlier and contributing more, she harnessed the power of compounding returns to a much greater extent than JR had.JR’s private markets sleeve gave him a small edge, but Laura’s decision to start saving earlier and save more made the real difference. Compounding did the rest, turning her steady contributions into a balance far larger than JR’s.The bottom line: It is far better to focus on how much to save and when to start saving, instead of the whims of the public and private markets.
Behind the curtain
In illustrating the importance of saving early and saving more, we had to make several assumptions. We assumed that Laura and JR earn the same salary and stay at the same employer for their entire careers, with no breaks in employment. We assumed stocks, bonds, and private markets all delivered the long-term return expectations set by Morningstar Investment Management. It’s not a given that a target-date fund with a 15% allocation to private markets would outperform a similar strategy focused solely on public stocks and bonds, especially after fees.There is debate about whether private equity funds outperform their public counterparts. A Morningstar analysis concluded that private equity funds are best thought of as another form of active management, where a handful of funds may significantly outperform their peers, but median returns are similar (or worse) to public market funds.Moreover, private markets present additional challenges for forecasting due to the heterogeneity in the underlying investments. The results should be viewed as more of a best-case scenario for target-date funds with private market exposure.
This article was provided to The Associated Press by Morningstar. For more personal finance content, go to https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance
Jason Kephart, CFA, is a senior principal, multi-asset strategy ratings, for Morningstar.Spencer Look is an associate director, retirement studies for Morningstar Investment Management LLC.
Samantha Lamas is a senior behavioral insights researcher for Morningstar.
Jason Kephart, Spencer Look, and Samantha Lamas of Morningstar
After enough Democrats caved this week and agreed to fund the federal government without guarantees for extending healthcare subsidies for tens of millions of Americans, a big question on the minds of many is Will my health insurance premiums go up?
Unfortunately, the answer is likely to be a resounding yes, according to data compiled by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), the nonprofit health research institute.
Heres how much more individuals and families of four can expect to pay for their healthcare premiums in 2026, unless Republicans decide to extend Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax creditssomething the majority of GOP congresspeople have repeatedly said they have no plans to do.
Why are healthcare premiums likely to rise in 2026?
Yesterday, eight Democratic and independent senators who are not up for reelection in the midterms next year voted to support a Republican Senate resolution that would fund the federal government and thus end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history.
However, the agreement did not include the primary thing that Democrats had been holding out for: an extension of the Affordable Care Acts (ACA) expiring enhanced premium tax credits.
This is a credit that millions of Americans received from the federal government to help pay for the cost of Americas expensive healthcare premiums.
As part of the deal to reopen the government, the Senate Democrats got the Republicans to agree to a vote on extending healthcare credits before the end of the year.
But that is hardly a concession, as with the government now looking set to reopen (the House still has to vote), Democrats have no leverage over their Republican counterparts to compel them to vote in favor of the tax credit extension.
Without the extension of the tax credits, tens of millions of Americans will pay more for their health insurance in 2026and in many cases a lot more. The increased financial burden will significantly affect already cash-strapped Americans.
How much more the average American will have to pay for their already costly healthcare will depend on their income level.
How much health insurance premiums will rise for individuals
According to KFF data, individuals can expect to pay up to $1,836 more per year for their healthcare premiums. Heres how that breaks down by income level:
$18,000 (115% of the Federal Poverty Level): $378 more
$22,000 (141% FPL): $794 more
$28,000 (179% FPL): $1,238
$35,000 (224% FPL): $1,582
$45,000 (288% FPL): $1,836
$55,000 (351% FPL): $1,469
$65,000 (415% FPL): Varies
How much health insurance premiums will rise for a family of four
The dollar amount increases for families of four are even worse, according to KFF. Families of four can expect to pay up to $3,735 more per year:
$40,000 (124% FPL): $840 more
$45,000 (140% FPL): $1,607
$55,000 (171% FPL): $2,404
$75,000 (233% FPL): $3,368
$90,000 (280% FPL): $3,735
$110,000 (342% FPL): $3,201
$130,000 (404% FPL): Varies
As KFF notes in its report, In other words, expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits is estimated to more than double what subsidized enrollees currently pay annually for premiumsa 114% increase from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026.
Non-ACA health insurance premiums will likely rise
Its not just the ACA. Americans with employer-based health insurance will likely also see their premiums increase in 2026. According to an NPR report, many employees could see their paycheck deductions for employer-sponsored health care plans surge by 6% to 7% in 2026.
Unfortunately, this should come as little surprise, as employer-based healthcare premiums have been surging for more than 25 yearsfar outpacing the rate of inflation.
As NPR noted, in 1999, the average employer-sponsored health insurance plan for a family of four had a premium cost of $5,791. By 2024, that premium had skyrocketed to $25,572a 342% increase.
Public opinion overwhelmingly supports ACA tax credit extension
A KFF poll published on November 6 found that Americans on both sides of the political spectrum support extending the enhanced premium tax credits, including 94% of Democrats, 76% of independents, and 50% of Republicans.
Even 44% of MAGA supporters support the tax credit extension. That number jumps higher among Republicans who dont identify as MAGA, with 72% of non-MAGA supporters among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents supporting the extension of credits.
Politicians in Congress will have to answer to those same voters come the midterms next year, when many Americans will be feeling the impact of higher premiums.
To the uninitiated, the term Scope 3 might sound like an obscure technical label. However, for those managing corporate carbon emissions, the term can inspire a range of emotions, from dread to dismay.
Scope 3 emissions are generated by indirect upstream and downstream operations, and typically account for the largest share of a companys carbon footprint. They also lie outside the organizations direct control. Although one of the sustainability agenda’s most daunting items, technology can provide solutions to the Scope 3 challenge.
There’s mounting pressure to tackle these emissions, as institutional investors such as pension funds pay close attention to the climate footprint of their portfolio’s companies. Better-informed consumers seek out more sustainable choices and reward those choices with shifted brand loyalty. And around the world, governments are tightening regulations on emissions levels and climate disclosure requirements.
The elusive, indirect nature of Scope 3 emissions
Because they are indirect, Scope 3 emissions are extremely difficult to capture, analyze, and report on. These emissions are generated by everything from the extraction of raw materials to manufacturing, logistics, and distribution. They’re emitted during customers use of products and the processes needed to reuse, recycle, or dispose of items.
Without the right software and systems, measuring and managing these emissions means engaging with hundreds of supply chain partners, each with different data formats and methods of carbon footprint accounting. It’s time-consuming and can lead to inaccuracies. Many supply chain operators struggle to integrate emissions and waste data into their own systems, much less those of suppliers and customers.
While supplier surveys are one way to collect supply chain data, survey fatigue is a significant concern. Supplier data is often unreliable or backward-looking and cannot be used to inform real-time sustainability decisions, minimize future emissions, or design strategies that accelerate progress toward sustainability goals.
The turn to tech
Fortunately, there are solutionsand technology plays a critical role. A network-based software platform can track and monitor all activities and events across the supply chain, including those from multiple suppliers and customers, in real-time. Here are three ways in which technology can help.
1. AI-driven data management for performance data
Using artificial intelligence, procurement and transportation activity data from disparate sources can be consolidated and translated into emissions performance data. This provides the reliable, timely, and accurate information needed to manage and reduce Scope 3 emissions, fulfill sustainability reporting requirements, and optimize supply chain efficiency.
Visualizing emissions levels across the supply chain, companies can evaluate trade-offs between sustainability and traditional supply chain performance indicators. In short, carbon efficiency becomes a key factor in decision-making. Supply chain partners also gain a better understanding of their carbon footprint, enabling them to meet their own emissions goals.
2. Network-powered platforms for end-to-end visibility
When managing something as complex as Scope 3 emissions, end-to-end supply chain visibility is critical. A network-based software platform achieves this by bringing together data from multiple organizations, enabling carbon emissions modeling and supply chain optimization.
This approach enables smarter decisions on everything from raw material sourcing to supplier and distribution partner selection, reducing value-chain energy and waste. Companies work with distribution partners to reduce partially filled or empty trucks and to design more fuel-efficient routes for lower Scope 3 emissions.
Companies can select supply-chain partners with the most carbon-efficient operations, equipped to measure and share their emissions data. Identifying carbon hotspotswhether by product type, raw material, or geographic locationenables supply chain element design or reconfiguration to account for emissions levels.
3. Forecasting and returns management technology to reduce waste
Scope 3 emissions are embedded in the things companies sell and dont sell. Overproduction and the creation of excess inventory lead to products unsold or in landfills, increasing waste and generating unnecessary energy consumption for manufacturing and transport.
Demand forecasting technology enables companies to produce more informed forecasts, allowing them to more accurately predict demand, anticipate fluctuations, and optimize production and inventory management. They’re therefore more likely to meet waste and sustainability goals regulations.
Meanwhile, data-driven reverse logistics simplifies the process of retrieving and remerchandising returned goods. These solutions accelerate returning products to the shelf to be sold at full price rather than being discounted or worse, discarded as landfill. Returns processing can also reroute damaged or obsolete returned products into recommerce channels.
Seize the decarbonization advantage
Operational efficiency in supply chains is all about working with partners, and carbon efficiency is no different. Technology is the connective tissue that, by consolidating data from a wide range of organizationssuppliers, shippers, warehouse operators, retailers, and othersenables smart planning, global coordination at scale, and enhanced supply chain optimization.
The task may look daunting, but technology makes it eminently possible to manage Scope 3 emissions. And with supply chain emissions responsible for over 50% of the global total, companies using streamlined data and digital tools to tackle emissions can gain a decarbonization advantage. Not only will the companies meet their sustainability goals, but they’re strategically positioned as a leader in a low-carbon economy.
Saskia van Gendt is the chief sustainability officer at Blue Yonder.
Major League Baseball said its authorized gaming operators will cap bets on individual pitches at $200 and exclude them from parlays, a day after two Cleveland Guardians were indicted and accused of rigging pitches at the behest of gamblers.MLB said Monday the limits were agreed to by sportsbook operators representing more than 98% of the U.S. betting market. The league said in a statement that pitch-level bets on outcomes of pitch velocity and of balls and strikes “present heightened integrity risks because they focus on one-off events that can be determined by a single player and can be inconsequential to the outcome of the game.”“The risk on these pitch-level markets will be significantly mitigated by this new action targeted at the incentive to engage in misconduct,” the league said. “The creation of a strict bet limit on this type of bet, and the ban on parlaying them, reduces the payout for these markets and the ability to circumvent the new limit.”MLB said the agreement included Bally’s, Bet365, BetMGM, Bet99, Betr, Caesars, Circa, DraftKings, 888, FanDuel, Gamewise, Hard Rock, Intralot, Jack Entertainment, Mojo, Northstar Gaming, Oaklawn, Penn, Pointsbet, Potawatomi, Rush Steet and Underdog.Cleveland pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were indicted Sunday in U.S. District Court in Brooklyn on charges they took bribes from sports bettors to throw certain types of pitches. They were charged with wire fraud conspiracy, honest services wire fraud conspiracy, conspiracy to influence sporting contests by bribery and money laundering conspiracy. The indictment says they helped two unnamed gamblers in the Dominican Republic win at least $460,000 on bets placed on the speed and outcome of certain pitches, including some that landed in the dirt.Ortiz’s lawyer, Chris Georgalis, said in a statement that his client was innocent and “has never, and would never, improperly influence a game not for anyone and not for anything.” A lawyer for Clase, Michael J. Ferrara, said his client “has devoted his life to baseball and doing everything in his power to help his team win. Emmanuel is innocent of all charges and looks forward to clearing his name in court.”The U.S. Supreme Court in 2018 ruled the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 was unconstitutional, allowing states to legalize sports betting.Ortiz appeared Monday in federal court in Boston. U.S. Magistrate Judge Donald L. Cabell granted Ortiz his release on the condition he surrender his passport, restrict his travel to the Northeast U.S. and post a $500,000 bond, $50,000 of it secured. Ortiz was ordered to avoid contact with anyone who could be viewed as a victim, witness or co-defendant.Last month, more than 30 people, including Portland Trail Blazers head coach and Basketball Hall of Famer Chauncey Billups and Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier, were arrested in a takedown of two sprawling gambling operations that authorities said rigged poker games backed by Mafia families and leaked inside information about NBA athletes.Billups’ attorney, Chris Heywood, issued a statement denying the allegations. Rozier’s lawyer, Jim Trusty, said in a statement his client is “not a gambler” and “looks forward to winning this fight.”
AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/MLB
Ronald Blum, AP Baseball Writer
Japanese technology giant SoftBank said Tuesday it has sold its stake in Nvidia, raising $5.8 billion to pour into other investments. It also reported its profit nearly tripled in the first half of this fiscal year from a year earlier.Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. said it sold the stake in Silicon Vally-based Nvidia in October, a move that reflects its shift in focus to OpenAI, owner of the artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT.SoftBank reported its profit in April-September soared to about 2.5 trillion yen (about $13 billion). Its sales for the six month period rose 7.7% year-on-year to 3.7 trillion yen ($24 billion), it said.The company’s fortunes tend to fluctuate because it invests in a range of ventures, including through its tech-focused Vision Funds. Those recently have paid off.In February, SoftBank’s chairman Masayoshi Son joined Trump, Sam Altman of OpenAI and Larry Ellison of Oracle in announcing a major investment of up to $500 billion in a project to develop artificial intelligence called Stargate.SoftBank has invested tens of billions of dollars in OpenAI. The two companies also plan to provide AI services in Japan.Selling SoftBank’s stake in Nvidia reflects Son’s shift in strategy and also nets his company a healthy profit thanks to the recent runup in Nvidia’s market value.Nvidia recently become the first $5 trillion company, just three months after it broke through the $4 trillion barrier. It plans a $100 billion investment in OpenAI as part of a partnership that will add at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia AI data centers to ramp up OpenAI’s computing power.The chip maker and other winners in the frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology have been driving much of this year’s rally in share prices. Critics say stock prices of the tech giants have soared too high and too fast in the mania around AI, drawing comparisons to the 2000 dot-com bubble that ultimately burst.SoftBank and Nvidia still have strong relations since various ventures that SoftBank invests in use Nvidia technology.SoftBank also has investments in Arm Holdings and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., computer chip makers that like Nvidia are benefitting greatly from the growth of AI.SoftBank stocks have nearly doubled in value in the past year. They gained nearly 2% Tuesday.Nvidia’s shares fell 1.3% in premarket trading early Tuesday. They jumped 5.8% on Monday.
Yuri Kageyama is on Threads: https://www.threads.com/@yurikageyama
Yuri Kageyama, AP Business Writer
Amazon ushered in a new era for television advertising when it converted Prime Video into an ad-supported experience by default in 2024. By the middle of this year, some 130 million U.S. viewers were on Prime Videos ad tier, watching between four and six minutes of ads per hour, according to an Adweek report.
The move is part of the companys long-term plan to dominate television advertising as viewership shifts from traditional broadcast and cable TV to streaming platforms. The digital advertising landscape is rapidly evolving with streaming TV becoming mainstream, says Kelly MacLean, VP of Amazon DSP, the companys ad-buying platform.
Under MacLean, Amazons been rolling out a slew of adtech tools to help businesses of all sizes reach viewers on Prime Video and even streaming rivals, including Netflix, NBCUniversal, and Disney. Amazons also helping with the creative side: It introduced an AI-powered video generator earlier this year that allows advertisers to easily create their own spots.
Amazons investments are paying off. For the past decade, the companys cloud-computing arm, AWS, has been the engine powering Amazons dominance. AWS brought in $91 billion in revenue in the first nine months of 2025, up 18% year over year. Amazon Ads is shaping up to be the next juggernaut: Its taken in $47 billion so far this year, and grew 24% last quarter.
Jay Richman, Amazons vice president of creative experiences, says Amazon operates one of the most vast and sprawling ad networks on the planet. Amazon is now preparing to turn this sprawling network into a well-oiled machine with the help of generative AI.
At its annual unBoxed conference, which is being held this week in Nashville, Amazon is unveiling a suite of agentic AI tools that will do everything from brainstorm creative concepts and produce video ads to advise advertisers of all sizes on where to place the finished campaigns for the most impact.
The result, says Richman, is taking an advertising process that traditionally requires weeks of work and significant financial investment and transforming it into something that can be accomplished within a few hours at no additional cost to advertisers. Heres a look at whats coming.
Unifying the streaming ad market
Though other major tech companies, including Google and Meta, have been integrating AI in their advertising products to make certain tasks easier for ad buyers, Amazon is unique in positioning its DSP platform as the go-to place for buying television ads.
Over the past two years, Amazon Ads has secured partnerships with major publishers including Netflix, Paramount, Fox Corp, NBCUniversal, Disney, and Roku, allowing advertisers to gain access to the partners inventory. The Disney and Roku partnerships were announced just in time for Cannes this past summer. In September, Amazon and Netflix announced a plan to offer programmatic buying on Netflixs Ads Plan.
MacLean says that Amazon has been able to notch deals with every major streamereven its rivalsbecause its adding value for them through capabilities like Amazon Cloud Publisher, a service that helps streamers and others use Amazons data to make their ad inventory more valuable.
Even as Amazon creates new tech and services to help publishers, it’s making it easier for a wide range of advertisersfrom big brands to small businessesto start running ads. And that begins by offering them a unified platform.
Behind the scenes, MacLeans team has rebuilt the backend of Amazons ad platform to allow advertisers to buy targeted spots not on Amazons own properties and across the wider internet. MacLean says that Amazon is using AI to harness the trillions of signals it has about consumers shopping and viewing habits to help target the right people at the right time and on the right platform.
A lot of advertisers are just dealing with mass fragmentation, MacLean says. They’re duplicating who they’re reaching. They’re wasting media dollars. So our focus has been on how to innovate and help marketers through these challenges, making it easier to distribute their ad spend in a way that can reach the right users.
Introducing AI agents
Amazon is showcasing its next slate of tools and services for digital and video advertisers at unBoxed this week.
One of the new features is Campaign Manager, which unifies the ads console and Amazon DSP into an individual media buying tool, allowing advertisers of all sizes to manage their campaigns through one entry point.
But the most groundbreaking new features take the form of agentic AI. The company has a new Creative Agent tool that will be integrated into the unified Amazon Ads console. Advertisers will be able to summon the tool via chat to make streaming and sponsored ads for television and elsewhere.
Using natural language prompts, advertisers can ask the Creative Agent to conduct audience research, brainstorm concepts and create storyboards, and even produce display and video ads using generative AI.
This is truly game-changing for the industry, allowing mid-market and small brands to design creative ad campaigns and professional-quality advertisements that were previously only accessible to large brands with substantial resources,” Richman says.
Once those ads are complete, Amazons new Ads Agent tool, which can be accessed via a chat window throughout the Amazon Ads platform, offers recommendations on how advertisers can improve the efficacy of their campaigns.
An advertiser, for example, could upload a custom media plan and let the tool configure all the campaign structures and the ad groupsor let it optimize all of the advertisers campaigns at scale using only natural language.
The goal for every brand is reaching the right people wherever they are and having compelling ads that drive those business results, MacLean says. But with our vast offerings, we’ve heard from customers that they also need a more streamlined process. The Ads Agent tool is designed to be the specialist that can help simplify everything.
Other products Amazon announced include Full-Funnel Campaigns, an agentic AI tool that will make advertising easier to launch and manage across multiple channels and formats, and sponsored product videos, which let advertisers showcase products within the Amazon store.
Unlike traditional short video ads, these product videos will offer deeper demonstrations and highlight key features. Customers can browse between videos, skip to specific sections, and click through to the product detail page on Amazon for more informationcreting a more interactive and personalized shopping experience.
The goal is to provide shoppers more information at a glance than is possible today with just static product shots, Richman says.
MacLean says that the ultimate goal with all these tools is to make Amazon Ads the best place to buy advertising. Were going to continue to simplify, automate, and drive performance, she says.
Amazon, it seems, is becoming the everything store for advertisers.
It’s up to the U.S. Supreme Court and Congress to decide when full payments will resume under the SNAP food aid program that helps 1 in 8 Americans buy groceries, as some wonder how they will feed their families without government assistance.The Supreme Court is expected to rule Tuesday on a request from President Donald Trump’s administration to keep blocking states from providing full Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, arguing the money might be needed elsewhere.The seesawing rulings mean that beneficiaries in some states, including Hawaii and New Jersey, have received their full monthly allocations while in others, such as Nebraska and West Virginia, they have received nothing.The legal wrangling could be moot if the U.S. House adopts and Trump signs legislation to quickly end the federal government shutdown.
An urgent need for beneficiaries
The cascading legal rulings plus the varying responses of each state to the shutoff means people who rely on SNAP are in vastly different situations. Some have all their benefits, some have none. In states including North Carolina and Texas, beneficiaries have received partial amounts.In Pennsylvania, full November benefits went out to some people on Friday. But Jim Malliard, 41, of Franklin, said he had not received anything by Monday.Malliard is a full-time caretaker for his wife, who is blind and has had several strokes this year, and his teenage daughter, who suffered severe medical complications from surgery last year.That stress has only been compounded by the pause in the $350 monthly SNAP payment he previously received for himself, his wife and daughter. He said he is down to $10 in his account and is relying on what’s left in the pantry mostly rice and ramen.“It’s kind of been a lot of late nights, making sure I had everything down to the penny to make sure I was right,” Malliard said. “To say anxiety has been my issue for the past two weeks is putting it mildly.”The political wrangling in Washington has shocked many Americans, and some have been moved to help.“I figure that I’ve spent money on dumber stuff than trying to feed other people during a manufactured famine,” said Ashley Oxenford, a teacher who set out a “little food pantry” in her front yard this week for vulnerable neighbors in Carthage, New York.
SNAP has been the center of an intense fight in court
The Trump administration chose to cut off SNAP funding after October due to the shutdown. That decision sparked lawsuits and a string of swift and contradictory judicial rulings that deal with government power and impact food access for some 42 million Americans.The administration went along with two rulings on Oct. 31 by judges who said the government must provide at least partial funding for SNAP. It eventually said recipients would get up to 65% of their regular benefits. But it balked last week when one of the judges said it must fund the program fully for November, even if that means digging into funds the government said need to be maintained in case of emergencies elsewhere.The U.S. Supreme Court agreed to pause that order.An appeals court said Monday that full funding should resume, and that requirement is set to kick in Tuesday night unless the top court takes action again.
Congressional talks about reopening government
The U.S. Senate on Monday passed legislation to reopen the federal government with a plan that would include replenishing SNAP funds.Speaker Mike Johnson told members of the House to return to Washington to consider the deal a small group of Senate Democrats made with Republicans.Trump has not said whether he would sign it if it reaches his desk, but told reporters at the White House on Sunday that it “looks like we’re getting close to the shutdown ending.”If the deal is finalized, it’s not clear how quickly SNAP benefits might start flowing.Still, the Trump administration said in a Supreme Court filing Monday that it shouldn’t be up to the courts.“The answer to this crisis is not for federal courts to reallocate resources without lawful authority,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer said in the papers. “The only way to end this crisis which the Executive is adamant to end is for Congress to reopen the government.”
Associated Press reporter Cara Anna in Carthage, New York, contributed.
Geoff Mulvihill and Margery Beck, Associated Press
The Senate passed legislation Monday to reopen the government, bringing the longest shutdown in history closer to an end as a small group of Democrats ratified a deal with Republicans despite searing criticism from within their party.The 41-day shutdown could last a few more days as members of the House, which has been on recess since mid-September, return to Washington to vote on the legislation. President Donald Trump has signaled support for the bill, saying Monday that “we’re going to be opening up our country very quickly.”The final Senate vote, 60-40, broke a grueling stalemate that lasted more than six weeks as Democrats demanded that Republicans negotiate with them to extend health care tax credits that expire Jan. 1. The Republicans never did, and five moderate Democrats eventually switched their votes as federal food aid was delayed, airport delays worsened and hundreds of thousands of federal workers continued to go unpaid.House Speaker Mike Johnson urged lawmakers to start returning to Washington “right now” given shutdown-related travel delays, but an official notice issued after the Senate vote said the earliest the House will vote is Wednesday afternoon.“It appears our long national nightmare is finally coming to an end,” said Johnson, who has kept the House out of session since mid-September, when the House passed a bill to continue government funding.
How the stalemate ended
After weeks of negotiations, A group of three former governors New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan and Independent Sen. Angus King of Maine agreed to vote to advance three bipartisan annual spending bills and extend the rest of government funding until late January. Republicans promised to hold a vote to extend the health care subsidies by mid-December, but there was no guarantee of success.Shaheen said Monday that “this was the option on the table” after Republicans had refused to budge.“We had reached a point where I think a number of us believed that the shutdown had been very effective in raising the concern about health care,” she said, and the promise for a future vote “gives us an opportunity to continue to address that going forward.”The legislation includes a reversal of the mass firings of federal workers by the Trump administration since the shutdown began on Oct. 1. It also protects federal workers against further layoffs through January and guarantees they are paid once the shutdown is over.In addition to Shaheen, King and Hassan, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, home to tens of thousands of federal workers, also voted Sunday in favor of moving forward on the agreement. Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat, Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman and Nevada Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen also voted yes. All other Democrats, including Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York, voted against it.The moderates had expected a larger number of Democrats to vote with them as 10 to 12 Democratic senators had been part of the negotiations. But in the end, only five switched their votes the exact number that Republicans needed. King, Cortez Masto and Fetterman had already been voting to open the government since Oct. 1.
Many Democrats call the vote a “mistake”
Schumer, who received blowback from his party in March when he voted to keep the government open, said he could not “in good faith” support it after meeting with his caucus for more than two hours on Sunday.“We will not give up the fight,” Schumer said, adding that Democrats have now “sounded the alarm” on health care.Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who caucuses with the Democrats, said giving up the fight was a “horrific mistake.” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., agreed, saying that voters who overwhelmingly supported Democrats in last week’s elections were urging them to “hold firm.”House Democrats swiftly criticized the Senate.Texas Rep. Greg Casar, the chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said a deal that doesn’t reduce health care costs is a “betrayal” of millions of Americans who are counting on Democrats to fight.Others gave Schumer a nod of support. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries had criticized Schumer in March after his vote to keep the government open. But he praised the Senate Democratic leader on Monday and expressed support for his leadership throughout the shutdown.“The American people know we are on the right side of this fight,” Jeffries said Monday, pointing to Tuesday’s election results.
Health care debate ahead
It’s unclear whether the two parties would be able to find any common ground on the health care subsidies before a promised December vote in the Senate. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has said he will not commit to bringing it up in his chamber.On Monday, Johnson said House Republicans have always been open to voting to reform what he called the “unaffordable care act” but again did not say if they would vote on the subsidies.Some Republicans have said they are open to extending the COVID-19-era tax credits as premiums could skyrocket for millions of people, but they also want new limits on who can receive the subsidies. Some argue that the tax dollars for the plans should be routed through individuals.Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Susan Collins said Monday that she’s supportive of extending the tax credits with changes, like new income caps. Some Democrats have signaled they could be open to that idea.“We do need to act by the end of the year, and that is exactly what the majority leader has promised,” Collins said.Other Republicans, including Trump, have used the debate to renew their yearslong criticism of the law and called for it to be scrapped or overhauled.In a possible preview, the Senate voted 47-53 along party lines Monday not to extend the subsidies for a year. Majority Republicans allowed the vote as part of a separate deal with Democrats to speed up votes and send the legislation to the House.
Associated Press writers Seung Min Kim, Michelle Price and Stephen Groves contributed to this report.
Mary Clare Jalonick, Lisa Mascaro and Kevin Freking, Associated Press
The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history appears to be nearing an end, but not without leaving a mark on an already struggling economy.About 1.25 million federal workers haven’t been paid since October 1. Thousands of flights have been canceled, a trend that is expected to continue this week even as Congress moves toward reopening the government. Government contract awards have slowed and some food aid recipients have seen their benefits interrupted.Most of the lost economic activity will be recovered when the government reopens, as federal workers will receive back pay. But some canceled flights won’t be retaken, missed restaurant meals won’t be made up, and some postponed purchases will end up not happening at all.“Short-lived shutdowns are usually invisible in the data, but this one will leave a lasting mark,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting giant EY said, “both because of its record length and the growing disruptions to welfare programs and travel.”The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that a six-week shutdown will reduce growth in this year’s fourth quarter by about 1.5 percentage points. That would cut growth by half from the third quarter. The reopening should boost first-quarter growth next year by 2.2 percentage points, the CBO projected, but about $11 billion in economic activity will be permanently lost.The previous longest government shutdown, in 2018-2019, lasted 35 days but only partially shut the government because many agencies had been fully funded. It only nicked the economy by about 0.02% of GDP, the CBO said then.The current shutdown is adding to the economy’s existing challenges, which include sluggish hiring, stubbornly elevated inflation, and President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which have caused uncertainty for many businesses. Still, few economists foresee a recession.About 650,000 federal workers didn’t work during the shutdown, which will likely boost the unemployment rate by about 0.4 percentage points in October, or to 4.7% from 4.3% in August, when the last report was released. Those workers would all then be counted as employed once the government reopens.Here are the ways the government closure is weighing on the economy:
Missed paychecks
All told, federal workers will have missed about $16 billion in wages by mid-November, the CBO estimates. That has meant less spending at stores, restaurants, and likely reduced holiday travel. Large purchases will probably be postponed, slowing the broader economy.Trump had threatened during the shutdown to not provide back pay but the deal struck in Congress would replace those lost wages once the government reopens.The shutdown has added to the Washington, D.C. area’s economic woes, where the unemployment rate was already 6% before the shutdown, after Trump’s cuts to the federal workforce this spring caused job losses. While the Washington, D.C. areaincluding the nearby suburbs in Virginia and Marylandhas the highest concentration of federal workers, most live and work outside of the nation’s capital.Federal workers make up about 5.5% of Maryland’s workforce, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. But they also comprise 2.9% of New Mexico’s workers, 2.6% of Oklahoma’s, and 3.8% of Alaska’s.Then there are the federal contractors. Bernard Yaros, an economist at Oxford Economics, estimates they could total as many as 5.2 million, and they are not guaranteed back pay once the shutdown ends.
Flight disruptions
Airlines scrapped more than 2,000 flights by Monday evening after canceling 5,500 since Friday on orders from the Federal Aviation Administration, which is seeking to reduce the burden on overworked air traffic controllers, who have now missed two paychecks.Even before the flight cancellations, Tourism Economics, an economic consulting firm, estimated that the shutdown would reduce travel spending by $63 million a day, which means a six-week standoff would cost the travel industry $2.6 billion.The canceled flights also mean less business for hotels, restaurants, and taxi drivers. And federal employees have already pulled the plug on upcoming trips, according to Tourism Economics, which may not be able to be rescheduled even when the government does reopen.
Consumer sentiment
The shutdown has worsened Americans’ outlook on the broader economy. Declining consumer sentiment can over time reduce spending and slow growth, though in recent years Americans have kept shopping even when their outlooks turned grim.Consumer sentiment dropped to a three-year low and close to the lowest point ever recorded in a survey by the University of Michigan, reported Friday, with pessimism over personal finances and anticipated business conditions weighing on Americans.The November survey showed the index of consumer sentiment at 50.4, down a startling 6.2% from last month and a plunge of nearly 30% from a year ago.
Federal spending
While the shutdown hasn’t cut off all federal government spending, it has reduced purchases of equipment and has cut off the issuance of new contracts.Yaros estimates that about $800 million in new contracts were at risk of not being awarded each day of the shutdown.“The federal award spigot has all but turned off at the Department of Defense, NASA, and the Department of Homeland Security,” Yaros wrote.
SNAP benefits
The shutdown delayed the payment of $8 billion in monthly SNAP food aid to 42 million recipients in November, creating a significant financial disruption for many households that likely reduced spending. Some states have managed to pay full benefits for this month, though the Trump administration is still fighting over the issue in court.The deal currently under consideration in Congress to reopen the government includes full funding of SNAP benefits.
Interest rate cuts
The government shutdown cut off the flow of economic data on unemployment, inflation, and retail spending that the Federal Reserve depends on to monitor the economy’s health. Even as the government reopens, some of that data will still be delayed. As a result, the Fed may not deliver a third interest rate cut at its December meeting, which was widely expected before the shutdown.“What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference late last month.Powell said the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee is deeply divided over whether to reduce its key rate, partly because the economy’s health is unusually cloudy right now. The government has missed two monthly jobs reports and the October inflation data, scheduled to be published Thursday, will likely never be issued.Powell said a rate cut in December was not a “foregone conclusion”and added that the lack of data could contribute to a decision by the Fed to skip a rate cut at its next meeting December 9 and 10. Fewer rate cuts could discourage borrowing and spending and weigh on the economy in the coming months.
Christopher Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
Shares in CoreWeave Inc are sinking this morning after the company revealed its third-quarter 2025 results yesterday.
While the New Jersey-based AI infrastructure firm more than doubled its revenue from the same quarter a year earlier, it also revised down its full fiscal 2025 forecast, sending its stock price tumbling.
Heres what you need to know.
Whats happened?
Yesterday, AI infrastructure company CoreWeave announced financial results for its Q3 2025, which ended on September 30.
There was some good news for the quarter, including revenue of nearly $1.4 billion (up 134% year over year) and a revenue backlog of $55.6 billion (up 271% YoY). Revenue backlog is a metric that includes future revenue that CoreWeave expects from existing client deals.
CoreWeaves main business is leasing AI hardwaremainly servers powered by Nvidias AI GPUsto AI software companies. Some of CoreWeaves most prominent customers include OpenAI and Meta.
However, that means CoreWeaves future growth depends on two primary factors: growing its client base and building massive data centers to house advanced AI servers to meet client demands.
Its that latter factor that has caused CoreWeaves stock price problems today.
Data center delay necessitates revised 2025 forecast
Unfortunately for investors, when CoreWeave announced its strong Q3 2025 revenue numbers, the company also said that it was revising down its full 2025 fiscal year guidance.
As noted by FXLeaders, CoreWeave said it now forecasts fiscal 2025 revenue of between $5.05 billion and $5.15 billion. The company had previously forecast fiscal 2025 revenues of up to $5.35 billion.
The reduced revenue forecast is due to a data center delay.
During the company’s earnings call, CEO Mike Intrator revealed that the development of a third-party data center on which CoreWeave was counting is behind schedule.
“There is a problem at one data center that’s impacting us, but there are [41 data centers] in our portfolio,” Intrator said, adding that the overwhelming majority of the data center delay should be resolved within the companys first quarter of fiscal 2026, which correlates to January through March of next year.
That data center delay will impact one of the companys clients. As reported by CNBC, CoreWeave did not name the client but said the client had agreed to keep the full value of the contract intact, meaning CoreWeave will not lose out on that revenue backlog; it will merely be delayed.
In addition to revising down its full fiscal 2025 revenue forecast, CoreWeave said it expects to end 2025 with adjusted operating income of between $690 million and $720 million and capital expenditures of $12 billion to $14 billion.
CoreWeave stock sinks nearly 10%
Despite CoreWeaves assertion that the data center issue isnt a long-term problem, the delay and disappointing guidance are affecting CoreWeave’s stock (Nasdaq: CRWV),which sank in premarket trading on Tuesday.
As of the time of this writing, CRWV shares are currently trading down almost 10% to $95.54 in premarket. Thats a low CRWV has not seen since September.
CoreWeave went public in March of this year.
Despite lowering its IPO price right before its Nasdaq debut, the companys stock has skyrocketed in 2025. In its March IPO, CRWV stock began trading at $40 per share. By June, shares had surged to $187. As of yesterdays market close, CRWV shares had risen more than 170% for the year.
But CoreWeaves double-digit stock decline this morning highlights the fact that investors are increasingly on edge about the valuations and lofty stock prices of companies operating in the AI space.
There are growing concerns about an AI bubble that could mirror the Dotcom bubble of the early 2000s.
CoreWeaves data center delay isnt a sign of any such bubble in itself, but the companys stock price fall may indicate that investor nerves are high when AI companies dont meet expectations.
