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India is likely to increase bond buybacks and switches to longer maturities this fiscal year to lower its combined fiscal deficit, aiming for sovereign rating upgrades that have remained unchanged for nearly two decades. Economists suggest that maintaining the fiscal gap below 7% of GDP is crucial for rating agencies to consider an upgrade, with the government budgeting 2.
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With future price pressures appearing benign and credit demand subdued, some economists are advocating for an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). This move aims to revive the credit cycle and boost economic momentum, potentially counterbalancing uncertainty.
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Federal Reserve officials are expressing concerns about the potential inflationary impact of tariffs. Governor Kugler anticipates larger price increases due to President Trump's tariffs in 2025, supporting steady interest rates if inflation risks persist. Presidents Schmid and Harker also highlighted the unsettling economic outlook and potential for tariff-driven price pressures.
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