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The S&P 500 and Dow achieved record closing highs Friday, navigating a volatile session amid an ongoing government shutdown. Interest rate-cut expectations strengthened, driven by weak economic data, including contracting services employment. Traders now anticipate a Fed rate cut in October as almost certain, with another probable in December, despite concerns about a prolonged shutdown's impact.
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Gold miners have significantly outperformed chip stocks this year, soaring 135% compared to 40%, driven by gold's 45% rally. This surge is fueled by central bank buying and rate cut expectations, with major miners like Fresnillo quadrupling. Despite strong performance, gold miners' valuations remain attractive at 13 times forward earnings.
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ICICI Securities reports that defensive sectors like FMCG, IT, and healthcare have seen their market-cap share drop to a 20% low since 2011, from 30% in 2020. Their profit pool share also plummeted to 16%, while valuations remain high at 32 times P/E. Meanwhile, cyclicals' P/B ratios have surged significantly from 2020 bottoms.
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