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Private sector companies have seen their spreads widen, whereas government-owned banks and state-owned companies have largely remained steady, with yields on their dollar bonds remaining flat over the past week following the tariff announcement. However, relief came from tariff pause for some issuers like Biocon Biologics' 6.67% due 2029 rising 4 points today, though still lower by over 8 points from start of the month.
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Some expect a slightly deeper cycle, with expectations of a terminal rate at 5% by December 2025 as the Reserve Bank of India surprised the market with a change in its stance to 'accommodative' from 'neutral', along with a downgrade in growth forecasts, "decisive improvement" in the inflation outlook and commitment to surplus liquidity.
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The Sensex returns in rupee terms have been between 190% and 1,500% in past three bullish eight-year cycles since 1984. In bearish periods, their returns dropped to the range of 20-50%
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