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Overseas investors significantly increased their purchases of Indian bonds for the second straight month in August, driven by attractive yields. Net inflows into the fully accessible route for government securities soared to 10,471 crore, fueled by a widening yield gap between Indian and US treasury bonds.
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Indian equity investors might face a lackluster September, as historical trends indicate a subdued market performance. Data reveals that key indices like Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 have often declined during this month over the past decade. Technical analysis suggests a slightly negative outlook, with potential upside capped until Nifty surpasses specific levels.
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The Reserve Bank of India increased gold reserves over US Treasury bills. This move aims to strengthen foreign exchange holdings. India's US T-bill investments decreased compared to last year. However, India remains a top investor, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Germany. This shift reflects a global trend of diversifying reserves beyond the dollar. China also reduced its US T-bill holdings.
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Indian equities closed August with a second consecutive month of losses as Nifty fell 1.38%, pressured by U.S. tariff shocks, foreign fund outflows, and profit-taking. Despite this, strong GDP growth and upcoming GST reform talks provide potential buffers. Geopolitical developments, including Modis China visit, and domestic growth triggers will test whether markets can recover in September.
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Nifty seasonality in September has leaned bearish, slipping in six of the past ten years as FII selling weighed on sentiment. Despite steady DII buying in September, volatility persists. Historical performance highlights sector rotation, with a cautious technical view guiding investment strategy for the month.
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