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The Federal Reserve faces an unusually contentious meeting this week that will test Chair Jerome Powell‘s ability to corral the necessary support from fellow policymakers for a third straight interest rate cut. The Fed’s 19-member rate-setting committee is sharply divided over whether to lower borrowing costs again. The divisions have been exacerbated by the convoluted nature of the economy: Inflation remains elevated, which would typically lead the Fed to keep its key rate unchanged, while hiring is weak and the unemployment rate has risen, which often leads to rate cuts. Some economists expect three Fed officials could vote against the quarter-point cut that Powell is likely to support at the Dec. 9-10 meeting, which would be the most dissenting votes in six years. Just 12 of the 19 members vote on rate decisions. Several of the non-voting officials have also said they oppose another rate cut. It’s just a really tricky time. Perfectly sensible people can reach different answers, said William English, an economist at the Yale School of Management and a former top Fed staff member. And the committee kind of likes to work by consensus, but this is a situation where that consensus is hard to reach. The debate, which has also been fueled by a lack of official federal data on employment and inflation during the government shutdown, could be a preview of where the Fed is headed after Powell’s term as chair ends in May. His successor will be appointed by President Donald Trump and is widely expected to be Kevin Hassett, the top White House economic adviser. Hassett may push for faster cuts than other officials would be willing to support. English said the potential for greater disagreement could be seen as a sign of healthy debate between different views. The Feds tradition of reaching unanimous or nearly-unanimous decisions has often been criticized as evidence of groupthink. Yet some Fed officials warn that there are downsides to sharp splits. If the committee votes end up as 8-4 or even 7-5, then financial markets could lose confidence in where the central bank is headed next. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, for example, has said that in the case of a 7-5 vote, if just one official changed their view, it could bring about a significant shift in Fed policy. For now, however, most economists expect what’s called a hawkish cut the Fed will reduce rates, while also signaling that it may stand pat for some time to assess the economy’s health. (“Hawks” refer to officials who generally support higher rates to combat inflation, while doves more often support lower rates to boost hiring). The president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, Jeffrey Schmid, is expected to dissent for a second straight meeting in favor of keeping rates unchanged. He may be joined by St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem. Fed governor Stephen Miran, who was hurriedly appointed to the Fed’s board by Trump in September, will likely dissent for a third straight meeting in favor of a larger, half-point reduction in the Fed’s key rate. After the Fed’s last meeting Oct. 28-29, several policymakers said they would prefer to keep rates unchanged at the December meeting, leading Wall Street investors to briefly downgrade the odds of a third rate cut to less than 30%. But then John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said that this year’s uptick in inflation appears to be a temporary blip driven by Trump’s tariffs that would likely fade by the middle of 2026. As a result, I still see room for a further adjustment in the Fed’s short-term rate, Williams said. As president of the New York Fed and vice chair of the rate-setting committee, Williams gets to vote on every interest rate decision and is close to Powell. Analysts said it was unlikely Williams would have made such a statement without Powell’s support. Investors rapidly lifted the odds of a cut, which now are at 89%, according to CME Fedwatch. You’re seeing the power of the chair, said Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citi and also a former top Fed staffer. Members of the committee, my instinct is, are wanting to underscore their support for Powell. Powell has come under relentless attack from Trump, who just last month said he would love to fire his ass and called Powell this clown. The Fed is required by Congress to seek low inflation and maximum employment, two goals that are potentially in conflict. For now, Powell and many other Fed officials are more concerned about hiring and unemployment rather than inflation. While the official government jobs reports have been delayed, in September the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the third straight increase and the highest in four years. Payroll provider ADP, meanwhile, reported that in November, its data showed companies shed 32,000 jobs. And many large firms have announced sweeping layoffs. Worries that the job market could get worse are a key reason a rate cut in December is likelybut not necessarily beyond that. Fed officials will have up to three months of backlogged jobs and inflation data to consider when they meet in late January. Those figures could show inflation remains stubbornly high or that hiring has rebounded, which would suggest further cuts aren’t needed. What they may end up agreeing to do is cut rates now, but give some guidance … that signals that theyre on pause for a while after that, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said. Christopher Rugaber, AP economics writer
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E-Commerce
President Donald Trump just announced that he plans to issue an executive order this week to set federal rules around artificial intelligenceand prevent states from setting their own. I will be doing a ONE RULE Executive Order this week. You cant expect a company to get 50 Approvals every time they want to do something, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday. We are beating ALL COUNTRIES at this point in the race, but that wont last long if we are going to have 50 States, many of them bad actors, involved in RULES and the APPROVAL PROCESS. The executive order is just the latest dramatic act of deregulation from Trump, who, since taking office, has slashed rules from banking regulations to environmental protections. Under Trumps plan, the federal governments framework on AI would override any rules that individual states might put in place to shape the technologys use or development. Trumps AI executive order isnt out yet, but a draft version that circulated last month proposed an aggressive framework that would go as far as creating a federal legal task force designed to punish states with AI regulations. Under the order, which would likely attract its own legal challenges, states with AI laws could be denied federal funds. The White Houses interest in preempting AI regulations is a huge windfall for AI companies and investors who have lobbied against state protections. In a hearing on Capitol Hill in May, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stressed that any rules slowing AI down in the U.S. would allow China to speed ahead. The proposed executive order is the Trump administrations latest effort to end-run state AI laws, but it isnt the first. This summer, Congress rejected a moratorium on state AI laws slipped into Trumps One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Similar language that appeared in the year-end defense budget also looks unlikely to make it through, Politico reports, because Republicans dont agree on the issue. States step in on AI Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis slammed the idea of limiting states ability to regulate AI as federal overreach in a post on X last month, a position he shares with many other red state governors. Stripping states of jurisdiction to regulate AI is a subsidy to Big Tech and will prevent states from protecting against online censorship of political speech, predatory applications that target children, violations of intellectual property rights, and data center intrusions on power/water resources, DeSantis wrote. AI technology has exploded over the last few years with little to stand in its way. The technology is the latest example of how the tech worlds breakneck speed easily outstrips the U.S. governments ability to craft meaningful regulations. Congress in particular is slow, often gridlocked and ineffective at regulating new industries, which leaves states to work quickly to put their own protections in place. A scenario in which states actually place the most stringent limits on AI wouldnt be unprecedented. In the absence of federal protections, an Illinois law known as the Biometric Information Privacy Act (BIPA) shields state residents from companies that would use their facial recognition data without permission. While BIPA only applies to Illinois residents, the law has proven strong enough to trip up Meta, which paid out $650 million to settle a related lawsuit before backing away from the technology altogether. For AI companies like OpenAI, navigating a vast patchwork of varying state laws is anathema to the pace of progressand to their skyrocketing valuations. But states are increasingly wary of the technology: In 2025, all 50 states introduced legislation on AI, and 38 states put new rules in place. In Oregon, a new state law prevents AI agents from using medical titles when dispensing advice. In Arkansas, an amendment to an existing law now restricts how AI can imitate someones voice or appearance. In November, dozens of state attorneys general sent a letter to lawmakers urging Congress to reject any limits on states abilities to regulate AI. New applications for AI are regularly being found for healthcare, hiring, housing markets, customer service, law enforcement and public safety, transportation, banking, education, and social media, they wrote. Federal inaction paired with a rushed, broad federal preemption of state regulations risks disastrous consequences for our communities.
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E-Commerce
More and more people are turning to GoFundMe for help covering the cost of housing, food, and other basic needs. The for-profit crowdfunding platform’s annual Year in Help report, released Tuesday, underscored ongoing concerns around affordability. The number of fundraisers started to help cover essential expenses such as rent, utilities, and groceries jumped 20%, according to the company’s 2025 review, after already quadrupling last year. Monthly bills were the second fastest-growing category behind individual support for nonprofits. The number of essentials fundraisers has increased over the last three years in all of the company’s major English-speaking markets, according to GoFundMe CEO Tim Cadogan. That includes the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Australia. In the United States, the self-published report comes at the end of a year that has seen weakened wage growth for lower-income workers, sluggish hiring, a rise in the unemployment rate and low consumer confidence in the economy. Cadogan said GoFundMe can see that people are struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living. Someone may be behind on rent or needs a little bit of extra help to get through the next month, Cadogan said. Thats a function of whats going on in these economies. And what is interesting is that people do step up and support folks in those situations. Among campaigns aimed at addressing broader community needs, food banks were the most common recipient on GoFundMe this year. The platform experienced a nearly sixfold spike in food-related fundraisers between the end of October and first weeks of November, according to Cadogan, as many Americans’ monthly SNAP benefits got suddenly cut off during the government shutdown. These uses suggest that online crowdfunding has come a long way from its roots as a way for entrepreneurs to raise money for their artistic or business endeavors, according to University of Toronto postdoctoral researcher Martin Lukk. Lukk, who studies economic inequality and co-authored a book about the unfulfilled promise of digital crowdfunding,” said the findings act somewhat as a barometer of where things are at in terms of desperation. When theres no other net to catch people, I think GoFundMe is where they often end up, Lukk said. Lukk cautioned that GoFundMe data doesnt show the full extent of the desperation because not everyone in need participates and many users don’t end up reaching their goals. Organizers must have internet access and technological know-how, he said, and a successful campaign often requires savvy storytelling and strong social networks. Iesha Shepard, 34, was initially embarrassed to ask for help. The New Orleans native said she’s dealt with chronic heart failure ever since she was shot multiple times four years ago. A single mother of two daughters, she said she fell sick last month and hasn’t been able to work her part-time hotel job for the past three weeks. Then came the eviction notice. As someone who barely can make a living, Shepard said she has struggled to keep up with the rising cost of rent and groceries. When her social security application got denied for the second time, she said she felt especially discouraged. She turned to crowdfunding because, as she said, I don’t want to be homeless with my children around the holiday time. That was my last option,” Shepard said. I prayed and I did a GoFundMe. She never expected the response she’s gotten. Her fundraiser has collected more than $1,000 of her $1,800 goal. Setting up the campaign was easy, she said, and the donations really ramped up after she uploaded TikTok videos about her situation. A Nov. 29 post has been viewed more than 10,000 times. Cadogan said his team always hopes that countries have strong government programs around health, housing or seniors’ well-being, for example. But GoFundMe recognizes that no country’s systems address everything, he added. At the end of a year that began with the Los Angeles wildfires that struck Cadogan’s community of Altadena, the GoFundMe CEO said he is blown away by the power of help. While asking for help can be a difficult step,” he said, it is a courageous act that is worth taking. Taking that action opens the door to what can be incredible goodness,” Cadogan said. ___ Associated Press coverage of philanthropy and nonprofits receives support through the APs collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content. For all of APs philanthropy coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/philanthropy. James Pollard, Associated Press
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